{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/painting-coating-and-decorating-workers/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Painting, Coating, and Decorating Workers",
    "soc_code": "51-9123",
    "category": "Production",
    "us_employment": 7940,
    "median_annual_wage": 41600
  },
  "verdict": "EXPOSED",
  "risk_resistance": 37,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 11,
    "embodiment": 15,
    "liability_shield": 1,
    "trust_premium": 5,
    "judgment_accountability": 5
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "At 11 the split is real: repetitive flat-surface coating on ceramics, glass, and furniture already runs through robotic spray cells, pad printers, and UV decal lines at volume, but blending a touch-up into an existing finish, hand-striping an irregular curve, or stenciling a one-off sign still needs a person holding the brush — that mix of already-gone and still-needed puts it mid-band rather than at 6 or 15.",
    "embodiment": "15 reflects that the work is entirely wrist, eye, and lung — loading parts, holding a spray gun at consistent distance and angle, sanding between coats, working in booths with solvent vapor and PPE — and while a booth is more controlled than a construction site, part geometry, humidity, and dust variability keep it out of the fixed-jig band.",
    "liability_shield": "1 is right because nothing here requires a credential: no state licence to spray lacquer, no stamped sign-off on a finish, and the OSHA and EPA obligations for solvent exposure and VOC emissions land on the employer's permit and ventilation compliance, not on the person operating the gun.",
    "trust_premium": "5 sits at the top of the anonymous band because a decorating shop's repeat customers may ask for the one worker who nails a particular glaze or gold-leaf line, but the buyer of the vase, cabinet, or cake sees only the finish and never learns whose hand applied it.",
    "judgment_accountability": "5 matches work run to spec sheets — specified paint, mil thickness, cure time, number of coats — where discretion is mostly deciding when a surface is clean enough or a coat has flashed off, and a wrong call means rework or scrap, not injury or liability."
  },
  "rationale": "This is hand-work — brushing, spraying, staining, stenciling, and hand-decorating products like ceramics, glassware, furniture, signs, and cakes — so language AI barely touches it directly; the threat is automated spray booths, robotic coating lines, pad printers, and digital decal/UV printing that already replace repetitive finish passes at volume. What survives is small-run, custom, and touch-up work where fixture cost exceeds labor cost and where a human eye matches color, blends a repair, or hand-detailed an irregular surface. No license, no sign-off, and buyers rarely know who applied the coating, so there is no regulatory or relationship moat.",
  "outlook": "Employment keeps drifting down as coating lines automate, but a smaller core of custom, touch-up, and color-match specialists holds steady and commands better pay.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Volume repetitive spray/decal passes move to robotic booths and UV digital printers, leaving only color-matching, blending of repairs, irregular-surface detailing, and one-off custom work — the residual job is the judgment tier, which raises measured resistance even as headcount shrinks",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "embodiment",
        "change": "Growth in on-site restoration and field touch-up work (historic architectural finishes, furniture and cabinetry repair in occupied homes, aircraft/vehicle blend repairs) where fixtures cannot be built and the environment is unpredictable",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 2
      },
      {
        "dimension": "trust_premium",
        "change": "Explicit 'hand-painted' / 'hand-decorated' provenance marking that buyers pay for — already visible in ceramics, custom cakes, guitar and motorcycle finishes, and signage; would strengthen if a trade body or marketplace (e.g. Etsy-style or a craft guild certification) enforced a hand-work label the way 'handmade' claims are policed",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Narrow route only: OSHA/EPA coating-application rules (lead RRP certification under 40 CFR 745 for pre-1978 substrates, isocyanate spray training) expanding to require a certified applicator to sign the job record on more coating classes — this attaches to certified painters, not to product decorators",
        "plausibility": "unlikely",
        "would_add": 2
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "Where the worker becomes the final visual QC on robot-coated output — accepting or rejecting finish on high-value parts (aerospace, automotive Class A surfaces) under a documented sign-off in the quality system",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "Realistic ceiling is low-to-mid 40s. There is no license, no client-facing identity, and the product usually leaves the shop anonymously; the honest picture is a shrinking craft tier with a real but small premium, not a defended occupation. Most of the 7,940 are in production settings where fixture economics, not law, decide."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 13360,
        "wage": 30820
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 12200,
        "wage": 31050
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 12430,
        "wage": 32950
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 11860,
        "wage": 34780
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 11850,
        "wage": 37330
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 11990,
        "wage": 38270
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 10700,
        "wage": 40230
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 8470,
        "wage": 40860
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 7940,
        "wage": 41600
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": -40.6,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [
    {
      "slug": "shoe-and-leather-workers-and-repairers",
      "title": "Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers",
      "verdict": "EXPOSED",
      "risk_resistance": 57,
      "median_wage": 37800,
      "overlap": 85,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Operations Monitoring",
        "Operation and Control",
        "Service Orientation"
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "painters-construction-and-maintenance",
      "title": "Painters, Construction and Maintenance",
      "verdict": "EXPOSED",
      "risk_resistance": 65,
      "median_wage": 49400,
      "overlap": 79,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Operation and Control",
        "Science"
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "welders-cutters-solderers-and-brazers",
      "title": "Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers",
      "verdict": "EXPOSED",
      "risk_resistance": 62,
      "median_wage": 53750,
      "overlap": 74,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Operation and Control",
        "Quality Control Analysis",
        "Equipment Selection",
        "Operations Monitoring"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}