{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/paperhangers/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Paperhangers", "soc_code": "47-2142", "category": "Construction", "us_employment": 1570, "median_annual_wage": 52140 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 59, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 19, "embodiment": 19, "liability_shield": 2, "trust_premium": 11, "judgment_accountability": 8 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Booking a pattern repeat around a bay window, feathering seams with a smoother on lath-and-plaster that bows a half-inch over eight feet, and cutting reliefs around crown molding are tactile judgments made roll by roll — nothing in the workflow reduces to a file a machine could execute, which is why this sits at 19 rather than in the mixed band with trades that have prefab substitutes.", "embodiment": "You work off planks and ladders in occupied homes, reaching overhead with wet paste, kneeling to trim baseboards, and handling 27-inch commercial vinyl in stairwells with no two rooms alike — the only thing keeping it off 20 is that the sites are interior and climate-controlled rather than open weather.", "liability_shield": "No state licenses paperhanging as its own trade; you may pull a general contractor registration or work under someone else's, and a failed seam or a bubbled wall is a callback and a re-hang, not a board complaint or a personal negligence claim.", "trust_premium": "Homeowners and designers hire you on referral and repeat work because you handled their $200-a-roll grasscloth without a lap mark, and you're in their dining room for three days — but the specifier or GC often picks you off a bid, so the relationship supports the price rather than being the whole product.", "judgment_accountability": "You decide whether that wall needs sizing, liner paper, or skim coat, where to hide the last mismatched seam, and whether to reverse-hang a stripe — real calls with real money on the line, but the pattern, substrate, and layout are largely set before you arrive, and mistakes are recoverable within the job." }, "rationale": "Measuring walls, prepping and sizing plaster, matching pattern repeats across corners and around outlets, and smoothing seams by hand on out-of-plumb walls is work no current robot performs at trade quality. AI touches only the thin office layer — estimating rolls, quoting, scheduling, and generating room visualizations for clients. The real threat to this 1,570-person occupation is fashion cycles and DIY peel-and-stick products, not language models.", "outlook": "The hands-on work stays human through the 2030s; employment risk comes from decorating trends and self-adhesive products, so the survivors are the specialty and designer-referred installers.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Growth of high-end hand-blocked, silk, grasscloth and mural installations where manufacturers (e.g. de Gournay, Zoffany, Farrow & Ball) void material warranties unless installed by a listed/certified installer — an installer-referral list tied to warranty coverage makes the named human the product", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Historic-preservation work: if more state SHPO offices and the Secretary of the Interior's Standards-driven tax-credit reviews require documented conservation-grade wallcovering repair by a qualified craftsperson, restoration paperhanging becomes a specifically human-purchased service", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Substrate diagnosis liability: when installers are the party who must call whether a wall is sound, dry, and mold-free before covering it — and insurers deny moisture/mold claims where the installer proceeded over a failed moisture reading — the go/no-go call becomes consequentially owned", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "State contractor licensing that names wallcovering/painting as a separate classification with bonding requirements (California's C-33 already covers paperhanging; more states adopting specialty-trade licensure with lead-safe RRP certification under EPA 40 CFR 745 for pre-1978 substrates) would put a certified individual's name on the job", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 } ], "ceiling_note": "task_resistance and embodiment are already near maximum; there is no headroom there and no route to a real professional-liability regime for a 1,570-person trade. Upside is concentrated in the luxury/restoration tier, which is a small fraction of an already small occupation — fashion cycles and peel-and-stick DIY remain the binding threat regardless of these levers." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 2710, "wage": 37030 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 2780, "wage": 38090 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 3380, "wage": 40520 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 2820, "wage": 43560 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 2340, "wage": 47610 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 2220, "wage": 44930 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 1830, "wage": 48460 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 1520, "wage": 48260 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 1570, "wage": 52140 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -42.1, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "roofers", "title": "Roofers", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 70, "median_wage": 55440, "overlap": 76, "skills_to_close": [ "Equipment Maintenance", "Repairing", "Installation", "Management of Financial Resources" ] }, { "slug": "riggers", "title": "Riggers", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 70, "median_wage": 62640, "overlap": 57, "skills_to_close": [ "Equipment Maintenance", "Repairing", "Equipment Selection", "Installation" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }