{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/patternmakers-wood/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Patternmakers, Wood", "soc_code": "51-7032", "category": "Production", "us_employment": 220, "median_annual_wage": 49630 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 44, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 12, "embodiment": 16, "liability_shield": 1, "trust_premium": 6, "judgment_accountability": 9 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "At 12 the layout arithmetic — shrink rule scaling, draft angles, parting-line placement, core print sizing — is already solved by CAD and cut by a 3-axis router, but hand-fitting loose pieces, filleting with wax or leather, sealing and finishing until the pattern draws clean from green sand, and repairing worn production patterns still keep a body at the bench, which is why this sits mixed rather than down at 5.", "embodiment": "16 reflects a shop floor: table saw, band saw, lathe, shaper and belt sander, wood dust and lacquer fumes, clamping up glue joints on stock that moves with humidity, then carrying the pattern to the foundry to trial-pull it in sand and shim where it drags — none of it done sitting down.", "liability_shield": "1 is right because nothing but a shop hire stands between you and the work: no state license, no journeyman card required, no stamp on the pattern, and if a casting comes out undersized the foundry eats the scrap and reorders the pattern.", "trust_premium": "6 recognises that a foundry that has used you for twenty years knows you understand its sand, its ram density and its shrink habits and will call you rather than send the print to a CNC shop, but the purchase order is still for a pattern to a drawing, and a cheaper accurate pattern wins the next job.", "judgment_accountability": "9 covers the calls that are genuinely yours — where to split the pattern, how much draft a deep pocket needs, whether a feature comes as a loose piece or a core, how much extra machining stock to leave on a critical face — decided from foundry practice rather than a spec sheet, with the ceiling being that the pattern is proved or rejected at the first pour, not years later on someone's safety." }, "rationale": "Building wooden foundry patterns and core boxes — laying out shrinkage and draft allowances, cutting, gluing, sanding, and fitting parts until the pattern pulls clean from sand — is hands-on bench work that language models cannot touch. The real pressure is not chatbots but CAD/CAM, CNC routing, and 3D-printed sand molds, which have already absorbed the layout math and much of the shaping, and have shrunk the occupation to roughly 220 US workers. No license protects the work, and the customer buys a pattern, not a relationship.", "outlook": "The craft skill stays hard to replace but the market keeps contracting as digital modeling and printed sand molds take more jobs; expect a few hundred highly skilled workers concentrated in repair, prototype, and hybrid digital-manual work.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Task-mix shift: if CNC and 3D-printed sand absorb all new-build patterns, the residual job becomes repair, rework and reverse-engineering of legacy patterns with no CAD model — hand-fitting worn core boxes, correcting draft on patterns that stick, matching shrink on unrecorded alloys. That tier resists digitization because the input is a damaged physical object plus foundry-floor diagnosis. Visible already in jobbing foundries that keep one patternmaker for fixes rather than new work.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "embodiment", "change": "Already near ceiling; only a further concentration into on-site pattern repair inside the foundry (dusty, hot, non-fixtured, one-off geometry) would nudge it, as opposed to shop-bench new-build that a router can do.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 2 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Defense and nuclear-component castings where DFARS/NAVSEA supplier qualification and Q-1 audits name a qualified patternmaker in the approved process — the buyer is paying for a certified human-built and human-verified tooling chain, not for craft aesthetics. Also restoration/heritage casting (antique machinery, bell and architectural work, museum foundries) where provenance of hand pattern work is priced.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "If pattern shops formally own first-article and pull-test sign-off — deciding shrink factors, gating, and whether a pattern is releasable for a costly alloy pour — under a customer PPAP or AS9100 process, the consequential call under ambiguity sits with the patternmaker rather than the design engineer. Some captive aerospace foundries already assign tooling release this way.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 } ], "ceiling_note": "With 220 US workers there is no professional body large enough to win a licensure regime, so liability_shield has no realistic route and is omitted. The headroom here is a smaller, more specialized occupation, not a protected one — the score can rise while the headcount keeps falling." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 770, "wage": 52380 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 530, "wage": 60940 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 370, "wage": 64880 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 190, "wage": 65120 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 210, "wage": 46920 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 330, "wage": 44290 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 260, "wage": 48630 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 180, "wage": 52520 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 220, "wage": 49630 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -71.4, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "brickmasons-and-blockmasons", "title": "Brickmasons and Blockmasons", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 68, "median_wage": 62120, "overlap": 78, "skills_to_close": [ "Coordination", "Persuasion", "Negotiation" ] }, { "slug": "sheet-metal-workers", "title": "Sheet Metal Workers", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 67, "median_wage": 61800, "overlap": 77, "skills_to_close": [ "Installation", "Instructing", "Repairing", "Coordination" ] }, { "slug": "riggers", "title": "Riggers", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 70, "median_wage": 62640, "overlap": 71, "skills_to_close": [ "Installation", "Coordination", "Repairing", "Troubleshooting" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }