{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/petroleum-engineers/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Petroleum Engineers",
    "soc_code": "17-2171",
    "category": "Engineering",
    "us_employment": 18060,
    "median_annual_wage": 144910
  },
  "verdict": "EXPOSED",
  "risk_resistance": 48,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 10,
    "embodiment": 8,
    "liability_shield": 8,
    "trust_premium": 7,
    "judgment_accountability": 15
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Decline-curve fits, nodal analysis, material-balance checks, Eclipse/CMG history-matching runs and AFE line-item buildups are already largely machine-executable, but choosing frac stage spacing on a new bench with three offset wells of ambiguous interference data, or diagnosing why a well is loading up when gauge data and allocation disagree, still needs a human to commit — that mix of automatable back-end and non-delegable interpretation is what puts it at 10 rather than 5.",
    "embodiment": "Most weeks are at a workstation, but the job includes location visits during spud and completion, standing on the rig floor watching mud returns and torque-and-drag, witnessing a frac job, and pulling wellhead pressures — episodic field presence in H2S-rated, MSHA/OSHA-governed environments rather than the daily hands-on exposure of a lease operator or wireline hand, hence 8.",
    "liability_shield": "The industrial exemption in most producing states means the engineer who designs a completion often holds no PE stamp at all, and the company's authorized signatory seals the state form; where a signed engineering approval is required — H-1s, W-3 plugging plans, allowable filings — the seal is real, and that split between exempt practice and stampable filings lands this at 8 instead of the 14+ a civil structural engineer gets.",
    "trust_premium": "Partners, non-operating working-interest owners and JV committees do want a known name defending reserve bookings and drilling AFEs, and mineral owners remember who answered the phone, but the output is a curve, a wellbore diagram and a budget that another engineer can re-run and sign — the relationship supports the work rather than being the work, which caps this at 7.",
    "judgment_accountability": "Deciding to shut in a producing well, change mud weight when pore pressure comes in higher than prognosis, call for a casing string that wasn't in the plan, or sign off on PRMS proved-reserve bookings that flow into SEC filings are ambiguous, expensive, sometimes safety-critical calls where the engineer's name is on the recommendation and the well control incident or reserve writedown traces back to it — 15 reflects genuine ownership without the sole-signature finality of a licensed structural or medical decision."
  },
  "rationale": "The modal petroleum engineer spends most of the week in reservoir simulation software, production data analysis, decline-curve fitting, AFE cost estimates and drilling reports — workflows where AI plus automated history-matching already compresses hours into minutes. What persists is ownership of the multi-million-dollar call: where to land a lateral, whether to shut in a well, how to respond when downhole pressures diverge from the model, and standing behind that decision in front of operations and regulators. Licensure is a partial shield only — the industrial exemption means many practicing petroleum engineers never sit for the PE, though state filings and well permits do require signed engineering approval.",
  "outlook": "Headcount per barrel keeps falling as simulation and production surveillance automate, so the surviving roles concentrate in on-site drilling/completions decision-making, reserves certification, and — increasingly — carbon storage and geothermal subsurface work.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Narrowing or repeal of the industrial exemption in state engineering practice acts (NCEES has pushed model-law language toward this; Texas HB-1000-style periodic reviews of the TBPE exemption are the concrete thing to watch). If well permits, plugging/abandonment plans, casing designs and P&A cost estimates had to carry a named PE seal with personal liability rather than a corporate signature, this rises sharply.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 6
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "State regulator rules requiring a licensed engineer of record to attest to injection-well and Class VI CO2 sequestration permit applications — EPA Class VI and Louisiana/Texas primacy programs already demand sealed geologic and pressure-front modeling. Expansion of sealed-attestation requirements to routine frac permits and offset-well pressure notifications (as in Texas RRC seismic response areas and New Mexico OCD rules) adds a signature chokepoint AI cannot occupy.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "Post-incident regime change: a BSEE or state enforcement action naming an individual engineer for a well-control or induced-seismicity event, or SEC scrutiny of AI-generated reserves estimates, would force operators to designate a personally accountable reservoir engineer of record for PUD bookings under SEC Rule 4-10 rather than a committee.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Genuine two-tier structure: if automated history-matching and decline-curve fitting absorb the routine tier, the residual role is anomaly response — divergence between downhole pressure and model, stuck-pipe and kick decisions, offset-well interference calls — which is precisely the tier where training data is thin and consequences are non-recoverable. Task-mix shift alone can lift this without any law.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "Trust premium has no plausible route: the buyer is an operator's capital committee, not a retail client, and no one pays extra for a human-authored AFE. Embodiment is capped too — the engineer is in Houston, the roughneck is on the pad. Headcount is also tied to commodity capex cycles, which can cut deeper and faster than automation regardless of any dimension here."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 32010,
        "wage": 132280
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 32510,
        "wage": 137170
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 32620,
        "wage": 137720
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 27850,
        "wage": 137330
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 22100,
        "wage": 130850
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 20540,
        "wage": 131800
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 20390,
        "wage": 135690
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 18970,
        "wage": 141280
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 18060,
        "wage": 144910
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": -43.6,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}