{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/plasterers-and-stucco-masons/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Plasterers and Stucco Masons", "soc_code": "47-2161", "category": "Construction", "us_employment": 19310, "median_annual_wage": 57660 }, "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 67, "contested": false, "near_boundary": true, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 18, "embodiment": 20, "liability_shield": 6, "trust_premium": 11, "judgment_accountability": 12 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Feathering a three-coat veneer to a knife-edge return, reading suction on a hot wall and adjusting water at the mixer, and troweling before the set are decisions made by wrist and eye in real time — the only tasks a machine can take are the takeoff sheet and the invoice, which is why this sits at 18 rather than the low teens where prefab panel installation would land it.", "embodiment": "You are on pump scaffold at 30 feet in wind, hawk in one hand, working over your head in a lath cage on an occupied remodel where nothing is square and the substrate changes every eight feet — there is no controlled cell version of this job, so 20 is literal.", "liability_shield": "Most states require no plastering licence at all; you work under the GC's contractor licence and building-department inspection of the lath and weather barrier, so the 6 reflects OSHA scaffold/silica competency and any EIFS-manufacturer applicator certification a spec calls for, not personal legal exposure of your own.", "trust_premium": "Custom and historic work runs on the finisher whose Venetian or sand-float texture the architect or homeowner has seen and asked for by name, and repeat GC calls follow crews that leave clean corners — but production tract stucco is bid to the lowest number regardless of who holds the trowel, which caps this at 11.", "judgment_accountability": "You decide whether a substrate is sound enough to take a coat, where to place control joints so a wall doesn't map-crack, and how to blend a patch into 60-year-old sand finish — real calls with callback and moisture-intrusion consequences, but working within ASTM C926 coat thicknesses and the architect's spec rather than owning the design." }, "rationale": "Mixing mortar, applying scratch, brown, and finish coats by hawk and trowel, running scaffolding on exterior elevations, and matching texture on a 60-year-old patch repair are physical crafts with no digital surface for AI to grab. There is no licensed-professional sign-off in most states — the moat is hands and job-site chaos, not regulation. AI touches only the paperwork edge: bidding math, material takeoffs, and scheduling.", "outlook": "Employment stays roughly flat and demand for skilled finish and restoration hands outstrips supply as older tradespeople retire; the only AI-driven change is that estimating and bid prep stop being a separate job.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "State/local adoption of mandatory installer certification for exterior wall assemblies — e.g. more jurisdictions requiring EIFS/stucco work be done by a manufacturer-certified applicator (already required by many warranty programs from Sto, Dryvit, Parex) and requiring a named certified applicator affidavit on the water-resistive barrier inspection before drywall cover. Building-envelope water intrusion litigation in FL, TX and coastal Carolinas is the visible driver.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Insurer-driven: builder's-risk and homebuilder GL carriers conditioning coverage for stucco-clad assemblies on documented third-party envelope inspection plus certified applicator signature, following the pattern of the Florida condo/EIFS claim wave.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Growth of historic-preservation work where lime plaster, three-coat traditional and ornamental run-in-place mouldings must meet Secretary of the Interior Standards for tax-credit projects — spec language that names hand-applied lime plaster and disallows synthetic substitutes makes the human hand the deliverable, not just the method.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Task-mix shift as the routine tier thins: if drywall/level-5 and panelized prefab plaster take the flat repetitive volume, the remaining paid work concentrates in patch-matching, substrate diagnosis (is this cracking structural or shrinkage?), and remediation calls where the wrong read means tearing off a wall.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Formal role as the trade witness in envelope commissioning — signing off substrate moisture readings and lath/flashing conditions before covering, which makes the applicator the person who owned the go/no-go call in later disputes.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 2 } ], "ceiling_note": "Embodiment is already maxed and task_resistance near it, so the realistic headroom is only the ~14 points sitting idle in liability_shield and trust_premium. Nothing in motion suggests plasterers get a state license comparable to electricians; certification-plus-insurance is the likelier and weaker route. Note also that the biggest downside risk is not AI but substitution — panelized/prefab cladding and drywall replacing site-applied plaster — which shrinks headcount without any dimension score falling." }, "adjudication": { "method": "two independent runs agreed on the verdict", "outcome": "corroborated", "run_totals": [ 67, 68 ], "run_verdicts": [ "SAFE", "SAFE" ] }, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 24180, "wage": 40750 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 24870, "wage": 43540 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 27360, "wage": 45440 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 25210, "wage": 47020 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 26980, "wage": 48340 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 25950, "wage": 49730 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 22310, "wage": 52640 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 20880, "wage": 56020 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 19310, "wage": 57660 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -20.1, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }