{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/plumbers-pipefitters-and-steamfitters/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters",
    "soc_code": "47-2152",
    "category": "Construction",
    "us_employment": 465840,
    "median_annual_wage": 63800
  },
  "verdict": "SAFE",
  "risk_resistance": 86,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 18,
    "embodiment": 20,
    "liability_shield": 14,
    "trust_premium": 14,
    "judgment_accountability": 20
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Every core duty is unrepeatable geometry — chasing a drain slope of 1/4\" per foot through existing joists, cutting out a corroded closet flange, dry-fitting DWV in a wall that isn't plumb — so there is no fixed sequence to encode, which is why this sits at 18 rather than a mid-band trade whose fabrication happens on a shop bench.",
    "embodiment": "You work on your back in a 30-inch crawlspace, in trenches, on roofs at vent terminations, with live gas, sewage, and 200°F water: the environment is not just physical but hazardous and unmapped, which is the definition of the top of the band and leaves nothing to deduct for.",
    "liability_shield": "Journeyman and master licensure with documented apprenticeship hours is statutory in nearly every state, and backflow-prevention certification and medical-gas (NFPA 99/ASSE 6010) brazing endorsements attach your name to the test report — the 14 rather than 18 reflects that much residential repair work is performed by apprentices under a master's licence rather than by a personally-liable signer on every job.",
    "trust_premium": "Homeowners call the plumber who fixed their water heater at 11pm, and service companies live on those repeat and referral relationships, but a large share of the trade is new-construction rough-in bid to a GC who never learns your name — that split is what holds this at 14 instead of 18.",
    "judgment_accountability": "When you smell gas at a meter, decide whether a 60-year-old cast-iron stack gets patched or replaced, or judge that a hospital's medical-gas zone valve must be shut before a code-required purge, you make an irreversible life-safety call alone in the building with no supervisor to escalate to — the consequence set (asphyxiation, scalding, contaminated potable water) is what puts this at the ceiling."
  },
  "rationale": "The core of this job — cutting into a wall to find the leak, threading and soldering pipe in a crawlspace, setting fixtures, pressure-testing a system, diagnosing why a boiler loop is short-cycling — happens in cramped, non-standard, wet physical environments that no current robot handles. AI can eat the paperwork tier: estimates, permit forms, code lookups, invoicing, dispatch scheduling. Journeyman/master licensure in nearly every state, plus liability for backflow, gas, and medical-gas work, adds a legal moat that would require statutory change to erode.",
  "outlook": "Demand stays strong through aging building stock, water-heater and boiler replacement cycles, and a thin apprentice pipeline; AI trims the office overhead, not the wrench time.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Expansion of mandatory licensed-plumber sign-off into areas currently done by general contractors or handymen — e.g. states adopting cross-connection/backflow assembly tester certification requirements (ASSE 5110) for all commercial and multifamily buildings on a recurring annual test cycle, or medical-gas installer certification (NFPA 99 / ASSE 6010) extended to outpatient and dental facilities. Also: state adoption of PFAS/lead service-line replacement rules (EPA Lead and Copper Rule Improvements, 2024, with 2027 inventory and replacement deadlines) that require a licensed plumber to certify material verification at each service connection.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "trust_premium",
        "change": "Warranty and insurer structure: homeowner insurers or manufacturers voiding coverage on water-damage claims and equipment warranties unless installation was performed and documented by a licensed contractor — already common in tankless water heater and boiler warranty terms. If carriers tighten this into explicit proof-of-licensed-install requirements after the rise in water-damage loss ratios, the buyer is paying for the license, not the labor.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Task-mix shift as the estimating/permitting/dispatch tier is absorbed by AI back-office tools: the remaining billable day concentrates on diagnosis and non-standard retrofit — heat-pump water heater and hydronic retrofit into existing housing stock, where each job is a one-off. Driven by IRA 25C/25D heat-pump incentives and state electrification codes pushing retrofit volume rather than new-build repetition.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 2
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "Already at 86 with embodiment and judgment_accountability maxed; realistic headroom is a few points in liability_shield and trust_premium only. The scored risk here was never displacement of the physical work — it is wage compression if AI-run dispatch platforms commoditize lead generation and set prices, which this register does not measure."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 428260,
        "wage": 52590
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 438070,
        "wage": 53910
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 442870,
        "wage": 55160
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 417440,
        "wage": 56330
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 417620,
        "wage": 59880
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 427920,
        "wage": 60090
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 436160,
        "wage": 61550
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 455940,
        "wage": 62970
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 465840,
        "wage": 63800
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": 8.8,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}