{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/postal-service-clerks/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Postal Service Clerks",
    "soc_code": "43-5051",
    "category": "Office",
    "us_employment": 73720,
    "median_annual_wage": 62130
  },
  "verdict": "COOKED",
  "risk_resistance": 31,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 8,
    "embodiment": 11,
    "liability_shield": 2,
    "trust_premium": 6,
    "judgment_accountability": 4
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "An 8 reflects that the rate lookups, label and customs form generation, money order issuance, and tracking answers that fill most of a window shift are already replicated by SSKs and Click-N-Ship, while what won't digitize — physically weighing and accepting a parcel, checking a passport applicant's ID against Form DS-11, and pulling mail machines rejected — is enough residual manual work to keep it out of the 0-6 band.",
    "embodiment": "An 11 fits standing at a counter for a full tour lifting parcels up to 70 lb, working scales and PVIs by hand, and casing or distributing mail — physical and on-site, but inside a climate-controlled retail lobby with fixed equipment, not the uncontrolled streets a city carrier deals with.",
    "liability_shield": "A 2 is right because nothing about the window job requires a state or federal licence: training is on-the-job, the postmaster and USPS as a corporate entity absorb accountability for missent registered mail or a mishandled passport packet, and a clerk's exposure is discipline under the collective bargaining agreement, not personal liability.",
    "trust_premium": "A 6 acknowledges that in a small-town or single-window office regulars know the clerk by name and PO box holders deal with the same face daily, but the transaction is postage that costs the same anywhere and most patrons will use a kiosk or a different window without noticing the difference.",
    "judgment_accountability": "A 4 matches a job run out of the Domestic Mail Manual and IMM: mailability determinations, hazmat questioning, acceptable ID lists, and insurance limits are all written down as rules to apply, and anything genuinely ambiguous gets escalated to the supervisor or postmaster."
  },
  "rationale": "The window clerk's day is postage calculation, form completion (customs, certified mail, money orders), stamp and product sales, and answering rate and tracking questions — all of which self-service kiosks, online label printing, and automated tracking already handle, and USPS has been shifting volume that way for two decades. What holds is the physical side: handling and weighing parcels, staffing the counter, verifying ID for passport applications and PO box access, and sorting or distributing mail that machines misread. Union contract protections and federal staffing rules slow attrition more than any technical barrier does, and this occupation's headcount has been falling for years without AI's help.",
  "outlook": "Counter headcount keeps shrinking through attrition and consolidation as kiosks and online labels absorb transactions; the clerks who remain will be parcel-handling, ID-verifying, and machine-tending rather than rate-quoting.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Postal clerks are already designated acceptance agents for passport applications under 22 CFR 51.21 — a State Department rule tightening in-person identity verification (e.g. requiring a designated federal agent to physically inspect primary ID and witness the oath, explicitly barring remote or kiosk-based acceptance) would convert an incidental duty into a statutorily-required human function. Same mechanism if REAL ID-era rules make USPS a designated identity-proofing point for federal digital credentials (a live GSA/Login.gov in-person proofing partnership already routes to post offices).",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 5
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "If hazmat/lithium-battery and international customs screening liability is pushed onto the accepting clerk — FAA and IATA enforcement plus USPS Publication 52 already make the acceptance employee the decision point on refusing a parcel — and USPS formalizes clerk sign-off on hazmat declarations rather than treating it as advisory, the counter role owns a consequential refuse/accept call under ambiguity.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Genuine two-tier structure: as postage calculation, tracking lookups and label printing move fully to kiosks and apps, the residual day is exception handling — damaged/undeliverable parcels, claims and insurance disputes, mail theft and identity-fraud reports, PO box access disputes, hold-mail errors. If USPS staffing shifts window clerks toward a consolidated exception/claims desk (visible in Retail Associate role consolidation), the remaining task mix is the judgment tier.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "embodiment",
        "change": "Expansion of in-person-only services performed at the counter — biometric enrollment, notary or remote-notary witnessing, banking-adjacent 'postal banking' pilots (USPS ran a check-cashing pilot in four locations in 2021; several bills including Sen. Gillibrand's Postal Banking Act would mandate it) — adds physically-present, cash-and-document handling tasks that kiosks cannot absorb.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "Even with all levers, headcount decline is driven by volume shift to online and self-service, not by AI capability — a higher resistance score would describe a smaller, harder-to-automate remnant occupation rather than a stable one. No realistic route to a trust premium: buyers do not choose USPS windows for the human."
  },
  "adjudication": {
    "method": "two independent runs agreed on the verdict",
    "outcome": "corroborated",
    "run_totals": [
      31,
      30
    ],
    "run_verdicts": [
      "COOKED",
      "COOKED"
    ]
  },
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 82890,
        "wage": 58550
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 78830,
        "wage": 55280
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 81170,
        "wage": 48330
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 86950,
        "wage": 50150
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 79320,
        "wage": 52290
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 77690,
        "wage": 56200
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 78130,
        "wage": 59570
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 78060,
        "wage": 61630
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 73720,
        "wage": 62130
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": -11.1,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [
    {
      "slug": "postal-service-mail-carriers",
      "title": "Postal Service Mail Carriers",
      "verdict": "EXPOSED",
      "risk_resistance": 49,
      "median_wage": 60550,
      "overlap": 76,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Operation and Control"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}