{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/postmasters-and-mail-superintendents/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Postmasters and Mail Superintendents",
    "soc_code": "11-9131",
    "category": "Management",
    "us_employment": 13810,
    "median_annual_wage": 96660
  },
  "verdict": "EXPOSED",
  "risk_resistance": 44,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 10,
    "embodiment": 10,
    "liability_shield": 5,
    "trust_premium": 9,
    "judgment_accountability": 10
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "At 10 the split is real: PS Form 3999 route inspections, EXFC scan-rate reviews, TACS clock-ring corrections and daily volume reporting are already run out of dashboards at the district level, while covering an uncovered route at 6am, walking a hold-mail dispute, and standing on the workroom floor during a DBCS jam are not schedulable by software — neither half dominates, so it sits at the midpoint rather than at 6.",
    "embodiment": "A 10 reflects that the office is a fixed indoor building with a loading dock, not an uncontrolled site — you're lifting trays, opening the retail window, checking the lobby boxes and the vehicle lot, but you aren't climbing poles or working traffic, which is what separates this from the 15+ field trades.",
    "liability_shield": "There is no state license or exam standing between you and the job; a 5 rather than a 0 comes only from the federal appointment itself — bonded custody of postal funds and accountable items under 39 CFR, and personal exposure for stamp stock shortages and money order irregularities that the Inspection Service will attribute to the postmaster by name.",
    "trust_premium": "A 9 recognises that in a small town customers and the four to twenty clerks and carriers you supervise know you personally and bring you the escalations before they call 1-800-ASK-USPS, but the product is delivered mail on a national brand — patrons don't choose the post office because of you, which caps this well below professions where the relationship is the service.",
    "judgment_accountability": "At 10, most of the day runs on the M-39, M-41 and the APWU/NRLCA national agreements, which dictate overtime desired lists, grievance steps and discipline sequencing — genuine discretion shows up in Step 1 grievance responses, emergency route abandonment calls, and deciding whether a chain-of-custody or mail-theft incident goes to the Inspection Service, which is discretion inside a rulebook rather than open-ended authority."
  },
  "rationale": "The modal postmaster splits time between paperwork that software eats — carrier route scheduling, budget and volume reports, complaint logging, compliance documentation — and floor supervision that requires being physically present when a sorter jams, a route goes uncovered, or a customer escalates. There is no license protecting the role, and the real threat isn't AI so much as USPS network consolidation, which has been folding small offices under shared district management for a decade. What survives is the on-site accountability for mail security, chain-of-custody incidents, and managing a unionized workforce under a grievance-heavy contract.",
  "outlook": "The role won't be automated away so much as consolidated away — expect fewer, larger management spans by 2035, with survivors doing labor relations, security, and multi-site operations rather than office administration.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "USPS delegation-of-authority rules that name an individual installation head as the accountable officer for chain-of-custody breaches, election-mail handling attestations, and Postal Inspection Service investigations — already partly in motion via the 2020s election-mail certification memos and OIG findings that faulted named installation heads. If certification of election-mail processing timeliness becomes a signed, personally attributable duty, the role owns consequential calls that cannot be delegated to software.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Statutory or contractual designation of a named on-site postal official as custodian of record for mail security, plus 18 U.S.C. mail-theft/obstruction accountability attaching to a specific installation head rather than a district. Also: an APWU/NALC national agreement clause requiring a bargaining-unit-facing supervisor with grievance-step authority to be physically assigned to the installation, which is the closest thing to a licensure moat this role can get.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Task-mix shift is genuine here: the role has a clerical tier (route scheduling, volume and budget reporting, complaint logging, compliance paperwork) and a judgment tier (grievance handling under a heavy union contract, chain-of-custody incidents, uncovered-route triage). If the reporting tier is absorbed by USPS enterprise systems without the position being consolidated away, what remains is labor-relations and incident judgment that is much harder to automate. Note the countervailing force: consolidation usually deletes the post rather than concentrating the judgment work in it.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "embodiment",
        "change": "Increased physical-security and equipment-incident duty at the installation — expanded package volume, more high-value and controlled-substance parcels, and Postal Inspection Service protocols requiring an on-site manager for seizures, damaged-item chain-of-custody, and letter-carrier assault response. Rises only if USPS keeps staffed installations rather than routing everything through regional processing centers.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 2
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "The binding constraint is organizational, not technological. Network consolidation into Regional Processing and Distribution Centers reduces headcount regardless of how these dimensions move; a higher per-role score on a shrinking number of roles is not protection for the occupation. There is no realistic route to a higher trust premium — retail postal customers do not choose or pay for a particular human postmaster."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 13960,
        "wage": 74840
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 13770,
        "wage": 75970
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 13850,
        "wage": 76900
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 13880,
        "wage": 78060
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 12750,
        "wage": 80250
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 13460,
        "wage": 82760
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 13810,
        "wage": 88670
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 13810,
        "wage": 92730
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 13810,
        "wage": 96660
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": -1.1,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [
    {
      "slug": "gambling-managers",
      "title": "Gambling Managers",
      "verdict": "EXPOSED",
      "risk_resistance": 61,
      "median_wage": 93220,
      "overlap": 77,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Complex Problem Solving",
        "Judgment and Decision Making"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}