{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/property-appraisers-and-assessors/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Property Appraisers and Assessors",
    "soc_code": "13-2020",
    "category": "Business",
    "us_employment": 57070,
    "median_annual_wage": 67960
  },
  "verdict": "EXPOSED",
  "risk_resistance": 49,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 8,
    "embodiment": 10,
    "liability_shield": 14,
    "trust_premium": 7,
    "judgment_accountability": 10
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "An 8 reflects that comps selection, grid adjustments, and the URAR narrative are increasingly machine-drafted while the inspection and reconciliation of a non-conforming property still need a person on-site — the mixed score, not lower, is because condition and functional-obsolescence judgment resists digitisation even as the analytical core has fallen.",
    "embodiment": "A 10 is the site visit: measuring GLA to ANSI standards, crawling attics and basements, photographing roof and mechanicals, and driving neighborhoods — physical and uncontrolled, but a lot of the day is still desk work in a forms platform, which keeps it well below field trades in the 15+ range.",
    "liability_shield": "At 14 the state-certified appraiser signs the report and personally holds the USPAP obligation, carries E&O, and can be disciplined or sued for a defective valuation years after closing under FIRREA Title XI licensing — the reason it isn't higher is that appraisal waivers and AVMs are increasingly permitted to bypass that signature entirely, so the shield covers a shrinking share of transactions.",
    "trust_premium": "A 7 fits work where the client is usually a lender's AMC assigning through a rotational panel: the homeowner never chooses you, fees are bid, and the report goes to an underwriter who reads the number — the modest points come from repeat relationships with attorneys, estate work, and tax-appeal clients who ask for you by name.",
    "judgment_accountability": "A 10 recognises the genuine discretion in reconciling divergent value indications, deciding which sale is truly comparable in a thin market, and supporting a highest-and-best-use conclusion — but USPAP, Fannie Mae Selling Guide requirements, and the URAR form constrain the process enough that most residential assignments follow a prescribed path rather than an open call."
  },
  "rationale": "Automated valuation models already do comparable-sales selection, adjustment math, and market-trend analysis better and faster than a human with a spreadsheet, and Fannie/Freddie appraisal waivers plus hybrid 'desktop' appraisals have removed the human from a growing share of residential transactions. What persists is the site visit — walking a property to catch functional obsolescence, deferred maintenance, illegal additions, and condition issues no dataset captures — plus the state certification and signature that carry legal and E&O liability on the report. Modal worker here is a residential appraiser; commercial/complex-property appraisers and tax-appeal expert witnesses sit in a distinctly safer tier.",
  "outlook": "Residential appraisal headcount keeps shrinking as waivers and hybrid inspections spread, while a smaller cohort of certified general appraisers doing commercial, litigation, and complex work holds its pricing power.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "A state appraiser board or the Appraisal Standards Board (USPAP) rule explicitly requiring a certified appraiser to physically inspect and personally sign any valuation used for a federally related transaction, closing the 'property data collector' loophole that currently lets unlicensed gig inspectors feed hybrid appraisals; conversely, ASB codifying AVM-output review as an appraisal assignment with full USPAP liability attached to the reviewing appraiser",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "State legislation following the anti-bias push (e.g. post-PAVE task force rules, or Fannie/Freddie's UAD redesign) that makes an identified human appraiser the accountable party for fair-lending discrimination claims on any valuation, including AVM-derived ones — creating a signature no model can supply",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "Task-mix shift: as waivers and AVMs absorb tract-housing refinances, the residual caseload concentrates in tax appeals, eminent domain, estate/divorce litigation, and non-conforming property — work where the appraiser defends a number under cross-examination and owns the call. Recognizable if the share of appraiser revenue from litigation/assessment-appeal work rises against origination work",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 5
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Same two-tier shift: the surviving assignments are complex, non-comparable, and partially-observable properties (contaminated sites, mixed-use, special-purpose) where comps are thin and AVM confidence intervals are unusable. Watch for Fannie/Freddie publishing waiver-eligibility rules that carve out exactly these categories",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "embodiment",
        "change": "An assessment jurisdiction or GSE requirement mandating interior inspection at defined intervals (some states already require periodic physical reassessment cycles), plus insurer-driven condition inspections after catastrophe losses in FL/CA, which put a body inside the structure rather than a drone over it",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "trust_premium",
        "change": "Narrow route only: parties in adversarial settings (tax appeal boards, probate courts, divorce) pay specifically for a named, deposable human whose credentials can be attacked. Watch for state tax tribunals adopting rules refusing AVM evidence without a testifying appraiser",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "No plausible route to a broad consumer trust premium: the buyer of a residential appraisal is a lender optimizing cost and cycle time, not a homeowner choosing a professional, and GSE waiver policy points the other way. The realistic ceiling is a smaller occupation with higher per-worker scores — the litigation and complex-property tier hardening while the residential origination tier thins."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 56320,
        "wage": 57010
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 55990,
        "wage": 58650
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 58340,
        "wage": 61340
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 59970,
        "wage": 61560
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 62090,
        "wage": 61630
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 59070,
        "wage": 65420
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 57070,
        "wage": 67960
      }
    ],
    "from": 2019,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": 1.3,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": false
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}