{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/real-estate-sales-agents/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Real Estate Sales Agents",
    "soc_code": "41-9022",
    "category": "Sales",
    "us_employment": 193370,
    "median_annual_wage": 52830
  },
  "verdict": "EXPOSED",
  "risk_resistance": 59,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 10,
    "embodiment": 12,
    "liability_shield": 12,
    "trust_premium": 14,
    "judgment_accountability": 11
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "A 10 reflects the split day: CMAs, MLS entry, listing descriptions, showing scheduling and drip campaigns to cold leads are already software output, while walking a 1920s bungalow to see the foundation crack, staging advice, and open-house conversion still require a body and a read of the room — neither half dominates, which is why this sits at the midpoint rather than at 6 with pure data roles or 14 with trade work.",
    "embodiment": "A 12 is earned by real driving hours — lockbox access, previews, inspection walk-throughs, sign installation, and buyer tours across a metro in weather you don't control — but the environments are finished houses and title offices, not roofs or crawlspaces under load, so it lands below the 13+ band where physical hazard and site unpredictability are the job itself.",
    "liability_shield": "State licensure, brokerage supervision, E&O coverage and personal exposure on material-defect disclosure and fair-housing violations put you well above certification-preferred work, but the score stops at 12 because the broker of record holds the license liability, the attorney or title company closes, and a 60-hour pre-license course plus exam is a barrier a motivated adult clears in weeks — unlike a bar admission or an appraisal certification with USPAP.",
    "trust_premium": "At 14 the referral-and-repeat engine is genuinely the product: most agents' pipelines come from past clients and sphere, and a seller hands over their largest asset partly because you sat at their kitchen table, but the score isn't 18 because a meaningful share of buyer-side business still arrives as portal leads to whoever answers the phone first.",
    "judgment_accountability": "An 11 fits pricing a property with no comparable sales, advising whether to counter or hold, and calling a contingency risk — real discretion with six figures on the line — but the client signs every decision, the contracts are state-promulgated forms, and the fiduciary duty is advisory rather than the final call, which keeps it out of the 14+ band."
  },
  "rationale": "The desk half of this job — listing copy, comparative market analyses, MLS data entry, lead follow-up, disclosure packet assembly, transaction coordination — is already largely automatable and portals like Zillow and Redfin have been eating the search-and-match function for a decade. What holds is the licensed, physically present, relationship-carrying half: touring properties, reading a seller's motivation, pricing a weird house, and negotiating a six-figure decision the client makes once a decade. The real threat isn't AI replacing agents outright but commission compression post-NAR settlement squeezing out the large part-time tier while full-time relationship agents keep the volume.",
  "outlook": "Headcount likely falls as commission compression pushes out part-time agents, while full-time agents who own negotiation, pricing judgment, and local relationships handle more transactions each with AI doing the paperwork.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Mandatory written buyer-representation agreements under the NAR settlement (effective Aug 2024) plus state statutes codifying them (e.g., existing NY, TX, and new post-settlement bills) put a named licensee's signature and fiduciary duty on every buyer-side engagement. If state boards go further and rule that AI-generated pricing opinions or disclosure packets constitute the unlicensed practice of real estate or appraisal unless a licensee reviews and signs (parallel to state appraisal boards' scrutiny of AVMs, and the 2024 interagency AVM quality-control rule), the sign-off becomes non-delegable.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "Fair-housing and steering liability attaching personally to the licensee for outputs of AI tools they deploy — HUD/DOJ guidance treating discriminatory algorithmic lead routing or neighborhood-description language as the agent's own violation, following the Meta ad-targeting consent decree. Also disclosure-failure suits (undisclosed defects, flood/wildfire history) where the licensee cannot shift blame to a vendor's data feed.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Task-mix shift as the routine tier goes: if CMAs, listing copy, MLS entry, transaction coordination, and lead nurture are fully absorbed by brokerage software, what remains billable is pricing atypical property, seller-motivation reading, and multi-offer negotiation — genuinely two-tiered work. Watch for the part-time tier exiting (NAR membership decline post-settlement) while remaining agents' day is majority negotiation and in-person judgment.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "trust_premium",
        "change": "Narrow route only: in luxury, off-market, and probate/divorce/estate segments buyers and sellers pay for a named human with discretion and network access, and commission compression does not reach it. No plausible route to a higher trust premium in the median-priced resale transaction — the NAR settlement is explicitly designed to make that fee negotiable downward, and flat-fee and portal-employed models are pulling the other way.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 1
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "Liability shield here is thin by design: the license protects the transaction, not the headcount. Brokerages can concentrate signatures on far fewer licensees while software does volume, so a rising liability_shield score can coexist with a shrinking occupation. Commission compression, not model capability, is the binding constraint."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 147960,
        "wage": 45990
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 156760,
        "wage": 48690
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 162330,
        "wage": 48930
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 168740,
        "wage": 49040
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 175920,
        "wage": 48340
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 193010,
        "wage": 49980
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 197720,
        "wage": 54300
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 190600,
        "wage": 56320
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 193370,
        "wage": 52830
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": 30.7,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}