{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/recreation-workers/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Recreation Workers", "soc_code": "39-9032", "category": "Personal Care", "us_employment": 331490, "median_annual_wage": 36560 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 64, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 16, "embodiment": 18, "liability_shield": 5, "trust_premium": 14, "judgment_accountability": 11 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Counting heads on a field trip, spotting a kid who's about to bolt, physically demonstrating a soccer drill, and re-directing forty campers when rain kills the outdoor plan are tasks with no digital substitute — only the scheduling grid, sign-in sheets and the monthly program calendar move to software, which is why this sits at 16 and not 19.", "embodiment": "The work happens on pool decks, gym floors, wooded trail sites, ice rinks and school cafeterias, with lifting of equipment, standing for a full shift and direct physical supervision of children in spaces you don't control — an 18 rather than 20 only because a share of the hours are indoor rec-center rooms.", "liability_shield": "Most positions require nothing beyond CPR/first aid and a background check; CPRP certification and lifeguard or aquatics credentials exist and matter for some postings, but the agency or camp operator carries the negligence exposure, not you personally, so this lands at 5 rather than double digits.", "trust_premium": "Parents re-enroll their kid because you specifically remembered their child's name and their meltdown last summer, and regulars at the senior center show up for the person running bingo — but the funding decision is made by a parks department that treats staff as interchangeable seasonal hires, which caps this at 14.", "judgment_accountability": "You decide in real time whether a scraped knee needs a call home, whether a fight gets a warning or an ejection, and when heat or lightning ends the session — genuine discretion, but bounded by written camp policy, mandated-reporter rules and a supervisor you can radio, which puts it at 11 rather than the mid-teens." }, "rationale": "The core of this job — leading a game of kickball, running a summer camp group, supervising a pool deck, coaxing a shy nine-year-old into the craft circle, calming a dispute between teenagers — is physical, social, and improvisational, and nothing in current AI or robotics touches it. What AI does absorb is the paperwork layer: activity schedules, program flyers, registration processing, attendance and incident write-ups, grant blurbs and parent newsletters. The real threats to this occupation are municipal and nonprofit budget cycles and low wages, not automation; the modal worker here is a part-time camp or community-center leader, not a program director.", "outlook": "Ten years out the job still exists in gyms, pools, camps, and senior centers largely unchanged in substance, with the clipboard-and-flyer half of the week compressed — the pressure on headcount will come from public budgets, not from software.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "State child-care and camp licensing rules that make a named, background-checked, certified adult personally responsible for supervision ratios — e.g. states adopting ACA accreditation or the American Camp Association standards into licensure, or expanding mandatory Red Cross Lifeguard/CPR certification and mandated-reporter liability to all youth program staff. Post-abuse-scandal statutes (Child Victims Act-style windows) and insurer requirements that camps document a certified supervisor present per group push this from a weak credential to a personal-liability signature.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Formalizing the safety and behavioral-crisis role: written protocols where the on-site recreation leader owns the call to close a pool, evacuate for lightning, remove a child, or file a suspected-abuse report — mandated-reporter training laws now extending to youth-serving nonprofits make those calls attributable and consequential rather than informal.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Parents already choose programs by who the counselor is; a visible route upward is therapeutic recreation, where CTRS certification (NCTRC) is required for reimbursement in hospitals, VA facilities, and CMS-surveyed nursing homes — if state Medicaid or CMS conditions activity-program payment on credentialed human staffing, the paid-for-a-human premium hardens for that segment.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "If scheduling, registration, flyers, incident write-ups and grant blurbs are fully absorbed by municipal software, the residual day is almost entirely live supervision and improvisation — but this occupation's routine tier is thin, so the shift is small and it comes with fewer paid hours rather than a better job.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 2 } ], "ceiling_note": "Scores here are already near their capability ceiling; the binding threat is municipal and nonprofit budget contraction plus part-time wage structure, which no dimension on this register measures. Liability and credential gains would raise the score without raising pay or hours." }, "adjudication": { "method": "mean of two independent runs; verdict robust to rounding", "outcome": "rescored", "run_totals": [ 67, 60 ], "run_verdicts": [ "SAFE", "EXPOSED" ] }, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 352350, "wage": 24540 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 353570, "wage": 25060 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 358750, "wage": 26350 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 325640, "wage": 28440 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 264020, "wage": 29680 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 270380, "wage": 31680 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 281750, "wage": 34410 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 309640, "wage": 35380 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 331490, "wage": 36560 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -5.9, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "kindergarten-teachers-except-special-education", "title": "Kindergarten Teachers, Except Special Education", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 75, "median_wage": 62680, "overlap": 75, "skills_to_close": [ "Learning Strategies", "Reading Comprehension", "Judgment and Decision Making", "Time Management" ] }, { "slug": "special-education-teachers-preschool", "title": "Special Education Teachers, Preschool", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 82, "median_wage": 64830, "overlap": 70, "skills_to_close": [ "Reading Comprehension", "Critical Thinking", "Learning Strategies", "Writing" ] }, { "slug": "special-education-teachers-middle-school", "title": "Special Education Teachers, Middle School", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 76, "median_wage": 66810, "overlap": 70, "skills_to_close": [ "Active Learning", "Learning Strategies", "Reading Comprehension", "Writing" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }