{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/reinforcing-iron-and-rebar-workers/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Reinforcing Iron and Rebar Workers",
    "soc_code": "47-2171",
    "category": "Construction",
    "us_employment": 13800,
    "median_annual_wage": 58970
  },
  "verdict": "EXPOSED",
  "risk_resistance": 51,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 17,
    "embodiment": 18,
    "liability_shield": 4,
    "trust_premium": 5,
    "judgment_accountability": 7
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Wiring #8 bar into a column cage at height, walking mats on a mud footing, and hand-bending hooks to fit a congested beam-column joint are motion problems no model solves — the 17 rather than 20 reflects that flat-slab and bridge-deck tying, plus shop cutting and bending lists, are already being done by CNC lines and gantry-mounted tying robots.",
    "embodiment": "You carry and place bar in trenches, on suspended decks and in rain, kneeling on grade all shift with tying tools and cutters, at genuine risk of impalement and struck-by injury — an 18 rather than 20 only because prefabricated cages set by crane shift a slice of the work into a controlled shop.",
    "liability_shield": "No state license or certification is required to place rebar; OSHA 1926.701 impalement rules and the inspector's checklist bind the contractor, and the EOR's stamp on the placing drawings carries the design liability, leaving you with the 4 points that come from being the person the inspector watches tie the lap splice.",
    "trust_premium": "Your work is buried in concrete within days and no one who pays for the building knows your name; the 5 comes from foremen and superintendents rehiring specific rodbusters who can read a bar list and keep pace with the pour schedule, which is crew reputation, not client relationship.",
    "judgment_accountability": "Bar sizes, spacing, lap lengths and cover are all dimensioned on the placing drawings, so the 7 covers the real calls you make in the field — how to sequence congested mats, where to add ties and chairs so the cage doesn't shift under the pour, and when a conflict on the drawing has to go back to the engineer rather than be fudged."
  },
  "rationale": "Cutting, bending, placing and tying rebar per engineered drawings is heavy, dirty, outdoor work on uneven decks and in footings — language AI cannot touch it, and general-purpose robots are nowhere near it. The real pressure is mechanization inside the trade: shop-prefabricated rebar cages, CNC bending lines, and rebar-tying robots like TyBot on flat bridge decks and slabs eat the most repetitive hours. No license shields the job and the engineer, not the placer, signs the drawings, so protection comes almost entirely from the body and the jobsite.",
  "outlook": "Demand tracks infrastructure spending and stays real, but prefabrication and deck-tying robots shift hours from repetitive slab tying toward congested field fitting, rigging, and PT work — the crews shrink and the skill mix rises.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Adoption of a mandatory certified rebar-installer credential tied to inspection sign-off — the model already exists in ACI/CRSI certification and in special-inspection regimes: IBC Chapter 17 requires special inspection of reinforcing steel placement, and some jurisdictions (e.g. NYC DOB's licensed/certified trade requirements, California DSA school projects) already demand certified personnel. If a state or model code amendment required a certified ironworker of record to sign a rebar placement affidavit before concrete pour, personal accountability attaches to the placer rather than only the engineer.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 5
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "Task-mix shift as TyBot-class machines and shop-prefab cages absorb flat-deck tying and straight-bar work: what remains is congested column/beam joints, seismic hooks and confinement details, splice-length and clearance calls in the field, and RFI-triggering conflicts between rebar and embeds/post-tension ducts. The remaining role is closer to a field detailer/foreman owning pour-stop decisions under time pressure. Watch for BLS/industry reclassification of hours toward supervisory placement.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "If OSHA or a state plan tightens impalement-hazard and rebar-cage stability rules (1926.701(b) enforcement, cage bracing/lift-plan requirements after cage-collapse fatalities), a designated competent person for rebar cage erection would own consequential stability calls in writing.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Growth in seismic retrofit, bridge rehabilitation and nuclear/heavy-industrial work where placement is in existing congested structures — environments where prefab cages and gantry-mounted tying robots cannot be deployed. Federal IIJA bridge rehab funding already shifts the mix this way.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 2
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "No plausible route to trust premium: concrete buyers specify a code-compliant pour, not a human-tied one, and the finished work is buried. Embodiment is already near ceiling and can only fall as robotic tying widens beyond flat decks; the liability lever is the only one that meaningfully changes the profile, and it depends on code bodies choosing to place accountability at the trade rather than the engineer of record."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 18480,
        "wage": 46850
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 18360,
        "wage": 48320
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 18870,
        "wage": 49100
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 18680,
        "wage": 49390
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 16420,
        "wage": 48830
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 17270,
        "wage": 51070
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 17400,
        "wage": 54850
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 14140,
        "wage": 59280
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 13800,
        "wage": 58970
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": -25.3,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [
    {
      "slug": "brickmasons-and-blockmasons",
      "title": "Brickmasons and Blockmasons",
      "verdict": "SAFE",
      "risk_resistance": 68,
      "median_wage": 62120,
      "overlap": 88,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Equipment Selection",
        "Persuasion",
        "Active Learning",
        "Mathematics"
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "glaziers",
      "title": "Glaziers",
      "verdict": "EXPOSED",
      "risk_resistance": 65,
      "median_wage": 57080,
      "overlap": 88,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Installation",
        "Service Orientation"
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "roofers",
      "title": "Roofers",
      "verdict": "SAFE",
      "risk_resistance": 70,
      "median_wage": 55440,
      "overlap": 87,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Installation",
        "Active Listening",
        "Coordination"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}