{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/rock-splitters-quarry/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Rock Splitters, Quarry",
    "soc_code": "47-5051",
    "category": "Construction",
    "us_employment": 3320,
    "median_annual_wage": 48740
  },
  "verdict": "EXPOSED",
  "risk_resistance": 44,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 15,
    "embodiment": 17,
    "liability_shield": 3,
    "trust_premium": 3,
    "judgment_accountability": 6
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Setting feather-and-wedge lines along a bedding plane, sounding the block with a hammer to hear where it's sound, and adjusting wedge pressure by feel are physical judgments no software executes — it sits at 15 rather than 18 because CNC block lines and hydraulic guillotines have already absorbed the repetitive dimensional splitting on uniform stone.",
    "embodiment": "You work on a quarry bench with loose spall underfoot, weather, silica dust, and multi-ton blocks that shift when they part — 17 rather than 20 only because the quarry floor is a bounded, surveyed worksite rather than a wholly unpredictable environment like disaster response.",
    "liability_shield": "No state licence gates rock splitting; MSHA Part 46 site training and possibly a powder handler's card are employer-side compliance, so the mine operator eats the citation and nothing in your name protects your headcount.",
    "trust_premium": "The block leaves the quarry stamped with grade and dimension, not your name — the mason or fabricator buying it has no idea which splitter opened it, and 3 reflects only the foreman knowing who can be trusted on a difficult seam.",
    "judgment_accountability": "You decide where the line goes and when a block is ready to take pressure, but that call is bounded by the cut sheet, the quarry's grain map, and the shift boss's dimension orders, so it's real skill inside someone else's specification rather than an ambiguous high-stakes call you own."
  },
  "rationale": "Almost nothing in this job is text or screen work — you're reading grain and bedding planes in stone, drilling and wedging by hand, and operating splitters on uneven quarry floors, which language models cannot touch. The real threat isn't AI but capital equipment: hydraulic guillotine splitters, wire saws, and CNC block lines already replace hand-splitting crews, and vision-guided cut optimization is eating the judgment about where to break a block. Small occupation (about 3,300 jobs), no license shield, no customer relationship, so headcount tracks quarry mechanization rather than chatbot capability.",
  "outlook": "Employment keeps drifting down as quarries mechanize splitting and sawing, but the remaining jobs shift toward machine operation and blasting rather than disappearing.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "embodiment",
        "change": "Dimensional stone quarries with irregular, unbenched faces and variable bedding (e.g. Vermont slate, Indiana limestone ledges) resist gantry-mounted guillotine and wire-saw lines that require regular block geometry; if demand shifts further toward reclaimed/heritage stone and small-lot architectural slate, the share of work on terrain no fixed capital line can reach rises",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 2
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Genuine two-tier structure: repetitive primary breaking is already going to hydraulic splitters and CNC block lines, leaving grain-reading, defect rejection, and hand-wedging of high-value or historic-match blocks. If mechanization completes on the routine tier, the residual job is the judgment tier — stone selection and salvage of flawed blocks",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "trust_premium",
        "change": "Historic preservation work already specifies hand-worked stone: US Secretary of the Interior's Standards and many state SHPO/landmark commission approvals require matching original tooling marks, which machine-sawn faces cannot produce. If more municipal landmark ordinances write hand-split or hand-tooled finish into approved repair specs, buyers are literally paying for human hands",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "MSHA Part 56 ground-control and highwall-examination duties: if a quarry designates the experienced splitter as the competent person for pre-shift face and loose-rock examination, the role owns a consequential safety call under ambiguity with a documented record",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "Ceiling is low and set by capital, not AI. Even with the heritage-work trust premium and an MSHA competent-person role, headcount is governed by quarry mechanization economics; a 3,300-job occupation can shrink to a few hundred specialists whose individual scores rise while the occupation nearly disappears."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 4310,
        "wage": 34350
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 4870,
        "wage": 34750
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 5080,
        "wage": 36070
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 4640,
        "wage": 37130
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 4450,
        "wage": 37700
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 3910,
        "wage": 46010
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 3610,
        "wage": 46530
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 3080,
        "wage": 47460
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 3320,
        "wage": 48740
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": -23,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [
    {
      "slug": "pipelayers",
      "title": "Pipelayers",
      "verdict": "EXPOSED",
      "risk_resistance": 61,
      "median_wage": 49000,
      "overlap": 72,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Installation",
        "Quality Control Analysis",
        "Repairing",
        "Equipment Selection"
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "painters-construction-and-maintenance",
      "title": "Painters, Construction and Maintenance",
      "verdict": "EXPOSED",
      "risk_resistance": 65,
      "median_wage": 49400,
      "overlap": 70,
      "skills_to_close": []
    }
  ],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}