{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/rolling-machine-setters-operators-and-tenders-metal-and-plastic/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Rolling Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic", "soc_code": "51-4023", "category": "Production", "us_employment": 25250, "median_annual_wage": 50140 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 37, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 11, "embodiment": 13, "liability_shield": 2, "trust_premium": 3, "judgment_accountability": 8 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Automatic gauge control and stored PLC recipes already handle steady-state tending and trim adjustments, but roll changeouts, threading a new coil, shimming and crowning corrections, and reading why the edge is wavy still need a person with a wrench — that split is what puts it at 11 rather than in the resistant band.", "embodiment": "You work inside the mill: climbing the stand to change work rolls, feeding stock through pinch rolls, wiping coolant and scale, hand-miking strip at temperature — uncontrolled enough for 13, but on a fixed line with known geometry rather than a shifting outdoor site, which is why it isn't 17.", "liability_shield": "No state licence gates roll operation; a plant may want a forklift or overhead crane card and OSHA lockout/tagout training, but the mill owns product liability and no certificate follows you as personal legal exposure.", "trust_premium": "The customer buys coil to a thickness and flatness spec they never trace back to your shift; the small non-zero score reflects only the internal reputation that gets a hard changeover assigned to you instead of the new hire.", "judgment_accountability": "You decide when a roll is worn enough to pull, whether off-gauge strip gets scrapped or downgraded, and how much tension to give a thin gauge before it snaps — real calls made against a written spec and a supervisor's sign-off, not open-ended ones, hence 8." }, "rationale": "The core work — setting roll gaps, threading stock, monitoring gauges, adjusting speed and tension, measuring thickness with micrometers and calipers — is hands-on inside a hot, loud mill, which language AI cannot touch and current robots handle poorly. The real threat isn't ChatGPT, it's closed-loop mill automation: automatic gauge control, thickness sensors, and PLC recipe libraries that already absorb the tending and fine-adjustment tasks and let one operator cover several lines. Production reporting, scrap logging, and spec lookup are the first things to disappear; the physical setup, changeover, and diagnosing why the strip is crowning or wandering are what keep people on the floor.", "outlook": "Headcount keeps eroding as sensor-driven gauge control and multi-line staffing spread, but a smaller core of setup, changeover, and troubleshooting operators stays on the floor through the 2030s.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Closed-loop gauge control absorbs steady-state tending, leaving the job as changeover setup, roll/die swaps, and diagnosing shape defects (crowning, camber, strip wander) that AGC cannot correct — a genuine two-tier split where the routine tier is what automates. Watch for job postings that drop 'tender' language and require roll-shop/setup and defect-diagnosis skill.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "embodiment", "change": "Shift toward high-mix, short-run specialty alloy and thin-gauge plastic film work, where every changeover is a physical re-thread and roll re-crown in a hot mill; robotic threading of coil ends remains unsolved. Reshoring of specialty rolling under Section 232 tariffs would push mix this way rather than toward long automated runs.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 2 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Customer/qualification regimes rather than licensure: AS9100 or NADCAP aerospace flow-down, or ASME/API pressure-vessel material qualification, requiring a named qualified operator to sign the mill certification and process sheet for each heat/coil. Already partially in force for aerospace and nuclear-grade material; extension to more product lines would formalize a signed human record.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "OSHA machine-guarding and lockout/tagout enforcement plus insurer requirements make a named human responsible for authorizing entry into the roll bite for jam clearing and for the decision to run vs. scrap a coil — the accountability sits with the operator even when the control loop is automated. Would rise further if a facility's automated line runs with only one authorizing human per shift.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 } ], "ceiling_note": "No realistic route to a trust premium — rolled coil and film are sold on certified dimensional and metallurgical spec, and no buyer pays extra to know a human set the roll gap. Also note that liability and judgment gains here concentrate value in a shrinking headcount: one accountable setter covering several automated lines raises that role's resistance while eliminating the tenders around it, so occupation-level employment can fall even as the score rises." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 25610, "wage": 37860 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 26700, "wage": 38650 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 32470, "wage": 40490 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 34500, "wage": 43600 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 31650, "wage": 46210 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 27900, "wage": 46310 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 24750, "wage": 47040 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 22350, "wage": 48630 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 25250, "wage": 50140 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -1.4, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "industrial-machinery-mechanics", "title": "Industrial Machinery Mechanics", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 67, "median_wage": 64520, "overlap": 87, "skills_to_close": [ "Equipment Maintenance", "Repairing", "Troubleshooting", "Critical Thinking" ] }, { "slug": "electric-motor-power-tool-and-related-repairers", "title": "Electric Motor, Power Tool, and Related Repairers", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 60, "median_wage": 56210, "overlap": 85, "skills_to_close": [ "Equipment Selection", "Repairing", "Equipment Maintenance", "Troubleshooting" ] }, { "slug": "automotive-service-technicians-and-mechanics", "title": "Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 67, "median_wage": 50620, "overlap": 81, "skills_to_close": [ "Repairing", "Persuasion", "Troubleshooting", "Service Orientation" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }