{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/roof-bolters-mining/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Roof Bolters, Mining",
    "soc_code": "47-5043",
    "category": "Construction",
    "us_employment": 2160,
    "median_annual_wage": 78540
  },
  "verdict": "EXPOSED",
  "risk_resistance": 61,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 17,
    "embodiment": 19,
    "liability_shield": 9,
    "trust_premium": 5,
    "judgment_accountability": 11
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Tramming a roof bolter into a freshly cut entry, setting temporary supports, drilling a 6-8 foot hole into variable strata, spinning resin cartridges and torquing the bolt to spec is physical sequencing under a roof that is actively taking weight — no amount of language modeling touches it, and the 17 rather than 20 reflects that OEM automated bolting cycles and remote-operated rigs already do parts of the drill-and-insert loop in newer mines.",
    "embodiment": "You work bent under a 5-foot seam in dust, water and low light, handling steel bolts, plates and drill steels while the machine's boom is live and the ATRS is the only thing between you and the roof — a 19 rather than 20 only because the working place is a bolted, ventilated entry rather than open uncontrolled terrain.",
    "liability_shield": "MSHA Part 48 new-miner and annual refresher training plus state certified-miner papers are mandatory to be underground at all, and you can be pulled for failing to install per the approved roof control plan — but the plan is signed by the mine operator and the roof control specialist, not you, which keeps this at 9 instead of the teens where a licensed blaster or hoistman sits.",
    "trust_premium": "Your crew and section boss know whether your bolts hold and whether you call bad top, and that reputation follows you between mines, but the customer is the coal seam — no client picks a mine because of who is on the bolter.",
    "judgment_accountability": "The roof control plan dictates bolt spacing, length and pattern, so much of the shift is prescribed, but you are the person who decides that the top is drumming, that a spot needs extra straps or cribs, or that the place should be dangered off and abandoned — a call with lives on it, made alone in the dark, which is what pushes this above the procedural band."
  },
  "rationale": "Almost nothing a roof bolter does is text or screen work — you position a bolting machine underground, drill into rock, set resin or mechanical bolts, and read roof and rib conditions in low light with active ground pressure. Language AI is irrelevant here; the real threat is mechanized and remote-operated bolting rigs, which mining OEMs are actively deploying, plus the structural decline of US coal that has already shrunk this occupation to about 2,000 jobs. MSHA training and state certified-miner status create a real but modest regulatory floor, not a licensure moat comparable to an electrician's.",
  "outlook": "The work itself won't be done by software, but expect fewer roof bolter jobs by 2035 as coal output falls and semi-automated bolting rigs let one certified operator cover what two used to.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "MSHA roof-control plan approval (30 CFR 75.220) is amended, or state mine boards (WV, KY, PA) require that a certified miner or mine foreman personally sign off on roof support installed by remote or autonomous bolting rigs, and that a certified person be physically present to examine the supported area before it is traveled. Existing precedent: MSHA's rules already require a certified person for pre-shift/on-shift examinations under 30 CFR 75.360-362; extending named sign-off to bolt installation quality would put personal certification and liability on a human at the face.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 5
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "If autonomous rigs take the repetitive pattern-bolting on good top, the residual human work becomes the ambiguous tier: intersections, adverse-top areas, rehab after a fall, changing bolt type/length on the fly when the drill reveals unexpected strata. A roof-control plan revision, or an MSHA rule requiring a certified person to authorize deviations from the approved bolting pattern in adverse conditions, formalizes that ownership.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Same two-tier split: as OEM rigs (Komatsu/Joy, Sandvik, Fletcher) absorb straight-line bolting in stable seams, remaining assignments concentrate in low-seam, irregular, and rehab work where rigs do not fit and roof reading dominates. This raises the resistance of the surviving job while shrinking headcount — score rise without job security.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 2
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "UMWA or independent-union contract language requiring a certified miner operator per remote bolting unit, comparable to crew-size clauses fought over in longwall automation, would make the human position contractually rather than only statutorily required.",
        "plausibility": "unlikely",
        "would_add": 2
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "No plausible route to trust_premium: the buyer is a mine operator purchasing ground support, and no customer pays extra for human-set bolts. Embodiment is already near ceiling and cannot rise. The binding constraint is not AI capability but coal-sector contraction plus rig deployment — every lever above raises the score of a shrinking occupation without adding jobs."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 3140,
        "wage": 59090
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 2080,
        "wage": 61190
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 1850,
        "wage": 59770
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 1700,
        "wage": 60210
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 1960,
        "wage": 66660
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 2230,
        "wage": 76640
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 2160,
        "wage": 78540
      }
    ],
    "from": 2019,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": -31.2,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": false
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}