{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/roofers/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Roofers",
    "soc_code": "47-2181",
    "category": "Construction",
    "us_employment": 135490,
    "median_annual_wage": 55440
  },
  "verdict": "SAFE",
  "risk_resistance": 70,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 19,
    "embodiment": 20,
    "liability_shield": 8,
    "trust_premium": 11,
    "judgment_accountability": 12
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Stripping three layers of asphalt down to rotten decking, cutting and bending step flashing to fit a chimney that isn't square, and hand-nailing a hip ridge on a 9:12 pitch are sequential judgment-plus-force tasks with no fixed geometry — the only slice a machine touches is the estimate, which is why this sits at 19 and not 20.",
    "embodiment": "You work at height on a surface that changes friction with dew, on a deck that may give way under you, in 140°F attic-radiated heat with a nail gun, torch, or hot kettle — there is no controlled-environment version of this job at all.",
    "liability_shield": "Most states license the roofing contractor or the business entity, not the individual on the roof, so the crew member's name appears on no permit and no warranty; the 8 reflects that OSHA fall-protection rules and manufacturer certifications (GAF Master Elite, torch-down endorsements) do impose real personal training requirements that an unqualified hand can't fake.",
    "trust_premium": "Homeowners hire the company off referrals and the roof warranty, and residential storm work does turn on whether the person on the ladder explains the deck rot honestly — but the shingles are anonymous once installed, and commercial GC-awarded work goes to price and schedule, keeping this at 11 rather than in the relationship-is-the-product range.",
    "judgment_accountability": "Calls like whether sheathing is sound enough to nail into, how to detail a valley where two different pitches meet, or whether to tarp and stop when the wind picks up are yours in the moment with a leak or a fall as the consequence — but shingle exposure, nailing patterns, and fastener counts are dictated by manufacturer spec and code, which caps the discretion at 12."
  },
  "rationale": "Tearing off old shingles, setting underlayment, flashing chimneys and valleys, and walking a pitched wet deck at 30 feet are tasks no current robot performs at cost. The screen-based slice of the job — takeoffs, material estimates, bidding, insurance claim documentation — is genuinely automatable and AI already drafts it from drone imagery. Licensure is contractor-level and state-dependent rather than personal, so the moat here is physical, not regulatory.",
  "outlook": "Demand stays tied to weather, housing stock age, and re-roof cycles; the labor is safe for a decade while estimating and claims work compresses into software, so the money shifts toward whoever holds the license and the customer relationship.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "States moving roofing from generic contractor registration to a personal, individually-licensed 'roofing contractor' credential with named-installer signoff on the permit — Florida's Div. I/II roofing license and Minnesota's residential roofer license are existing models; a further step would be code amendments (IRC adoption cycles) requiring a licensed roofer's signed inspection certificate before wind-mitigation or hail insurance discounts are granted, as Florida's uniform mitigation verification (OIR-B1-1802) form already does for inspectors",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 5
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Insurer underwriting rules that void wind/hail coverage unless installation is documented by a licensed roofer attesting to manufacturer-spec fastening — carriers in FL, TX, OK are already tightening roof-age and installation-proof requirements; if attestation becomes personally liable rather than firm-level, the shield hardens",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "Structural-call ownership growing as decking rot, ventilation, and hail-vs-wear determinations become the contested core of claims; if state adjuster rules or court precedent treat the roofer's on-deck damage determination as the controlling opinion over AI drone assessments (litigation over EagleView/Verisk imagery-based denials is already live), the accountable call sits with the roofer",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Task-mix shift: takeoffs, bids, and claim packets automating away leaves the day as tear-off, flashing, and deck judgment. Score is already 19, so headroom is nil — this protects rather than raises",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 1
      },
      {
        "dimension": "trust_premium",
        "change": "Manufacturer certification tiers (GAF Master Elite, Owens Corning Platinum) that condition extended warranties on named certified installers — buyers already pay premiums for these; expansion tied to warranty transferability at home sale would deepen it",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 2
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "task_resistance and embodiment are effectively maxed; the only real headroom is liability_shield, where roofing is unusually weak for a trade with this much consequence. Realistic ceiling around 80-83."
  },
  "adjudication": {
    "method": "two independent runs agreed on the verdict",
    "outcome": "corroborated",
    "run_totals": [
      70,
      79
    ],
    "run_verdicts": [
      "SAFE",
      "SAFE"
    ]
  },
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 121170,
        "wage": 38970
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 128680,
        "wage": 39970
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 129690,
        "wage": 42100
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 128680,
        "wage": 43580
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 129890,
        "wage": 47110
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 131980,
        "wage": 47920
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 135140,
        "wage": 50030
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 136740,
        "wage": 50970
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 135490,
        "wage": 55440
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": 11.8,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}