{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/sailors-and-marine-oilers/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Sailors and Marine Oilers",
    "soc_code": "53-5011",
    "category": "Transportation",
    "us_employment": 31670,
    "median_annual_wage": 51520
  },
  "verdict": "EXPOSED",
  "risk_resistance": 60,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 16,
    "embodiment": 19,
    "liability_shield": 11,
    "trust_premium": 5,
    "judgment_accountability": 9
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Heaving mooring lines onto bollards, chipping rust and painting a rolling deck, splicing wire rope, standing bow lookout in fog, and hand-lubing a running generator are physical acts on unpredictable steel and water — none of them decompose into text or API calls, which is why this sits at 16 rather than mid-band; the points off reflect that logbook entries, watch reporting, and sensor-fed rounds are already partly displaced by automated alarms and condition monitoring.",
    "embodiment": "You work on a pitching deck in spray and heat, in confined engine spaces at 40°C, handling lines under tension and hatches that crush — an environment that is not merely physical but actively hostile and never the same twice, which is what separates 19 from a warehouse job at 12.",
    "liability_shield": "A Merchant Mariner Credential with STCW Basic Training and a TWIC is legally mandatory to walk the gangway, and the Coast Guard can suspend or revoke that document under 46 CFR Part 5 for your own negligence — but you sign no vessel documents and the master and licensed engineer carry the operational liability, so this lands at 11 rather than in the high teens.",
    "trust_premium": "No charterer or shipper picks a vessel because of which AB or oiler is aboard; the crewing agent or union hall fills the billet interchangeably by rating and endorsement, and the only relationship that carries value is your standing with the bosun and the mate who requests you back — worth a few points, not a business.",
    "judgment_accountability": "Most of the day runs on standing orders, watch routines, PMS cards and the bosun's work list, but you make live calls that nobody can second-guess in time: whether that contact on the bow is closing, whether a mooring line is about to part, whether a bearing temperature or unusual noise warrants calling the engineer — real discretion with a short fuse, though the consequential decisions escalate to the bridge, which holds it at 9."
  },
  "rationale": "The core of this job — standing lookout watch, handling mooring lines, chipping and painting steel, lubricating and monitoring engine-room machinery, securing cargo and rigging gear — happens with hands on wet, moving equipment in weather, which language models cannot touch. The real threat is not chatbots but crew-size reduction: sensor-based watchkeeping, condition-monitoring on engines, and automated engine-room alarms let owners sail with fewer deckhands and oilers per hull, and reduced-manning and autonomous-vessel pilots are already underway. Merchant Mariner Credential and TWIC requirements plus strong maritime unions slow the headcount squeeze more than any AI limitation does.",
  "outlook": "Vessels will still need bodies aboard in 2035, but expect fewer of them per hull — the sailors who keep berths will be the ones holding licenses, welding tickets, and tankerman endorsements rather than watch-and-paint ratings.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "USCG minimum safe manning certificates and STCW Chapter VIII rest/watch rules being written to require a specified number of credentialed ratings forming part of a navigational watch regardless of sensor coverage — i.e. IMO's MASS Code (due to enter force ~2028 as non-mandatory, mandatory target 2032) landing with a hard 'no reduction of certificated ratings below X' floor rather than a goal-based equivalence test. Equivalence-based drafting instead lowers this.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Jones Act / SOLAS-adjacent enforcement where a lookout failure is charged against the individual credentialed AB under 46 CFR 15.405 and Rule 5 COLREGS, with USCG suspension-and-revocation proceedings continuing to name persons rather than the sensor vendor — already the pattern in NTSB marine casualty reports (e.g. Conception, El Faro follow-on actions).",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 2
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "If reduced-manning crews mean each remaining rating owns more consequential unsupervised calls — sole lookout in restricted visibility, first responder on an engine-room alarm with no second oiler, confined-space entry decisions — the surviving job is the judgment tier. Watch for USCG-approved reduced-manning trials that pair fewer ratings with expanded individual authority.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Task-mix shift: routine chipping, painting, and gauge-rounds absorbed by contracted shoreside riding gangs and condition-monitoring, leaving mooring in heavy weather, casualty response, and hands-on machinery repair at sea. The remaining hours are the ones no sensor covers.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 2
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Union contract mechanisms — SIU, MM&P, MEBA, or AMO collective bargaining agreements specifying minimum unlicensed ratings per watch section as a contractual condition, plus Maritime Security Program subsidy conditions tying US-flag operating agreements to crew complement.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 2
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "trust_premium has no realistic route: cargo shippers and charterers are invisible to the deck crew and buy freight rates, not human hands. Also, embodiment at 19 and task_resistance at 16 are already near ceiling — the displacement mechanism here is headcount per hull, not task capability, so the only real defenses are manning regulation and union contract floors."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 30940,
        "wage": 40730
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 32220,
        "wage": 40900
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 31290,
        "wage": 43480
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 25570,
        "wage": 44920
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 26610,
        "wage": 46720
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 28500,
        "wage": 47490
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 29960,
        "wage": 48400
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 31360,
        "wage": 49610
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 31670,
        "wage": 51520
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": 2.4,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}