{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/secretaries-and-administrative-assistants-except-legal-medical-and-executive/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive", "soc_code": "43-6014", "category": "Office", "us_employment": 1706790, "median_annual_wage": 47540 }, "verdict": "COOKED", "risk_resistance": 22, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 4, "embodiment": 6, "liability_shield": 0, "trust_premium": 7, "judgment_accountability": 5 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Calendar coordination, email triage, meeting-minute transcription, mail merges, travel booking, expense-report entry and spreadsheet upkeep are each already shipped features in Outlook/Google Workspace plus an LLM, which puts this at 4 rather than 10 — the resistant residue is errand-running and improvisation when the printer jams, not any of the named duties.", "embodiment": "A 6 reflects that the physical work is real but indoor and low-variance: greeting visitors, signing for couriers, restocking supply cabinets, badging in guests, wrestling the copier and moving paper files — controlled office floor, no ladders, weather, or patient contact, so nowhere near the 13+ band.", "liability_shield": "There is no credential gate at all: no state licence, no mandatory certification, and the CAP/MOS credentials are resume decoration rather than a legal precondition — memos and calendar invites carry the boss's authority, and errors are absorbed by the supervisor, so 0 is literal, not a slight.", "trust_premium": "7 credits the accumulated office-specific relationships — knowing which VP will actually take a call, which vendor to chase, how a department's approval chain really works — but the position is filled through temp agencies and turned over without clients noticing, so the relationship is convenience, not the product being bought.", "judgment_accountability": "Most decisions run on standing rules — whose calendar wins a conflict, which template to use, what gets escalated — and the genuine discretion (choosing not to interrupt, resolving a double-booking, deciding a caller matters) is real-time and reversible within the day, which is a 5 rather than the 10+ of someone owning irreversible commitments." }, "rationale": "The core of this job — scheduling meetings, drafting and formatting correspondence, transcribing notes, maintaining filing systems, screening and routing calls and email, entering data into spreadsheets and CRMs — is precisely what current AI assistants and calendar/workflow automation already do at usable quality. What resists is the physical, in-office layer: receiving visitors and deliveries, handling paper and equipment, walking a document to a person, holding the informal knowledge of how a particular office actually runs. No licensure, no signature requirement, and buyers are not paying for a relationship with the admin, so the only real moat is on-site presence and office-specific judgment.", "outlook": "Expect continued steady shrinkage of headcount through the 2030s as AI absorbs the correspondence, scheduling, and data-entry core, with surviving roles consolidating into fewer, broader office-operations and coordination jobs that require being physically present.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "embodiment", "change": "Return-to-office mandates plus consolidation of admin roles into single on-site 'office coordinator' posts that absorb facilities, mail/package intake, badge and visitor control, equipment troubleshooting, and event setup — already visible in JPMorgan/Amazon 5-day RTO staffing and in postings retitled Office Coordinator/Workplace Experience Coordinator. The physical, unpredictable-environment share of the day rises even as keyboard work falls.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Genuine two-tier split: if the calendar/email/data-entry tier is fully automated, what remains is exception handling — vendor disputes, reconciling conflicting executive priorities, catching the scheduling conflict the tool didn't know about, onboarding logistics for a new hire. Watch for job postings where 'AI tool oversight' and 'verify AI-drafted correspondence before send' appear as listed duties.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Narrow but real: admins who serve as notaries public, or as designated records custodians under state public-records/retention statutes (common in school districts, municipal offices, clerk's offices), carry a personal signature and statutory duty. If employers formalize a named human records custodian for AI-generated document retention — the direction of state RIM rules and of e-discovery authenticity fights over AI-produced records under FRE 901(b)(9) — a signature requirement attaches to the role.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Designation as the human in the loop for confidential-information routing and data-handling under state privacy laws or an employer's AI-use policy — e.g., the person who decides what goes into a chatbot, who gets access to a personnel file, which caller is a social-engineering attempt. Insurer cyber policies increasingly require a named employee for wire-transfer and vendor-change verification after BEC losses.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 } ], "ceiling_note": "Trust premium has no plausible route: buyers of this role are employers, not clients, and no one purchases a service specifically because a non-executive admin performed it. Even with every lever above firing, the occupation is capped in the 35-40 range — the levers convert an admin into an office coordinator or records custodian, which is a different job with fewer seats, not a defended version of 1.7M existing ones." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 2254820, "wage": 35590 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 2165310, "wage": 36630 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 2038340, "wage": 37690 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 1850360, "wage": 38850 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 1825980, "wage": 37880 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 1826710, "wage": 41000 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 1785430, "wage": 44280 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 1737820, "wage": 46290 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 1706790, "wage": 47540 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -24.3, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "tax-examiners-and-collectors-and-revenue-agents", "title": "Tax Examiners and Collectors, and Revenue Agents", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 34, "median_wage": 62370, "overlap": 64, "skills_to_close": [ "Mathematics", "Critical Thinking", "Instructing", "Learning Strategies" ] }, { "slug": "court-reporters-and-simultaneous-captioners", "title": "Court Reporters and Simultaneous Captioners", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 34, "median_wage": 72420, "overlap": 64, "skills_to_close": [ "Troubleshooting", "Equipment Maintenance", "Operation and Control" ] }, { "slug": "private-detectives-and-investigators", "title": "Private Detectives and Investigators", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 56, "median_wage": 51220, "overlap": 62, "skills_to_close": [ "Critical Thinking", "Systems Analysis", "Complex Problem Solving", "Operation and Control" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }