{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/service-unit-operators-oil-and-gas/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Service Unit Operators, Oil and Gas",
    "soc_code": "47-5013",
    "category": "Construction",
    "us_employment": 43140,
    "median_annual_wage": 58160
  },
  "verdict": "EXPOSED",
  "risk_resistance": 61,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 16,
    "embodiment": 19,
    "liability_shield": 7,
    "trust_premium": 7,
    "judgment_accountability": 12
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Latching elevators on a stand of tubing, breaking out a stuck rod string, spotting a swab cup down 6,000 feet by feel on the sandline — these are muscle-and-torque tasks on a specific wellbore with no two rig-ups alike, which is why 16 rather than a mid-teens hedge: the only digitisable slice is the pump-rate schedule and the job ticket.",
    "embodiment": "You work off a derrick floor or a truck deck at 3 a.m. in freezing wind, in live-well pressure, near H2S, wrestling 500-lb BOP stacks and hot iron on lease roads that wash out — 19 not 20 only because some pump and blender operation is now run from a data van instead of standing at the manifold.",
    "liability_shield": "IWCF/WellSharp well control, H2S Alive, and a CDL with tanker endorsement all gate who gets on the truck, but they are operator- and employer-mandated tickets that revoke with your badge — no state board holds your personal number when a job goes bad, so the consultant or engineer of record eats the exposure and you land at 7 rather than 12.",
    "trust_premium": "Operators and pumpers request specific crews and specific operators by name because they trust their hands on a workover, and repeat lease work runs on that reputation, but the contract is awarded to the service company on price and equipment availability, which caps the personal relationship at 7.",
    "judgment_accountability": "You decide when to shut in on a rising annulus pressure, when to stop pulling and back off, and whether that squeeze took — real calls made in seconds with the well live — but they run inside a written program from the operator's engineer and a company man on site with final say, putting you at 12 and not 16."
  },
  "rationale": "Rigging up workover units, running tubing and rods, pumping acid or cement jobs, and reading pressure behavior at the wellhead are hands-on tasks in mud, wind, and H2S — language models do essentially none of it. The real automation pressure is mechanical and remote-operations driven: automated pipe handling, hydraulic catwalks, and centralized frac/pump control rooms cut crew headcount per job rather than eliminating the role. Certification (well control, H2S, CDL) is employer- and operator-mandated rather than a personal professional license, so the regulatory shield is thinner than an electrician's.",
  "outlook": "The work stays physical and on-site through the 2030s, but crews per unit keep shrinking as pipe handling and pump control automate — and headcount will swing on oil prices far more than on AI.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "A state or federal rule making well-control/pressure-pumping operations require a named, individually certified operator of record who personally signs the job ticket — analogous to BSEE's Well Control Rule requirements for offshore or Texas RRC operator certification for cementing/plug-and-abandon jobs. If IADC WellSharp or an equivalent moved from employer-verified to a personally-held, revocable state license with individual sanction authority, the shield thickens materially.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 5
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Insurer-driven requirement (well control underwriters, e.g. after a blowout loss) that a certified individual on-site attest to barrier verification before pumping begins, with that attestation named in the policy — already partially present in operator contractor-qualification programs.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "As remote pump-control rooms take the routine rate/pressure work, the on-site remaining tier becomes barrier integrity calls, kick recognition, and shut-in decisions under ambiguity. If company policy formally designates the wellhead operator as the person with stop-work and shut-in authority (as some majors' stop-work-authority programs already do in writing), the accountability score rises without any new law.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Task-mix shift: automated pipe handling and hydraulic catwalks strip the repetitive tripping and rig-up labor, leaving diagnosis of stuck pipe, unexpected pressure behavior, H2S response, and improvised repair in bad weather — the tier machines handle worst. Already visible in reduced crew size per unit rather than unit elimination.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 2
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "Trust premium has no plausible route: the buyer is an E&P operator purchasing cost-per-job, and no customer pays a premium for a human service unit hand. Embodiment is already near ceiling at 19. Realistic ceiling is roughly 72-75, and the displacement pressure here is mechanical headcount-per-job reduction, which none of these levers offset."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 51760,
        "wage": 46740
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 43840,
        "wage": 47380
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 32870,
        "wage": 48410
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 36320,
        "wage": 50140
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 46150,
        "wage": 55750
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 44120,
        "wage": 57980
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 43140,
        "wage": 58160
      }
    ],
    "from": 2019,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": -16.7,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": false
  },
  "pivots": [
    {
      "slug": "heating-air-conditioning-and-refrigeration-mechanics-and-installers",
      "title": "Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers",
      "verdict": "SAFE",
      "risk_resistance": 75,
      "median_wage": 61010,
      "overlap": 79,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Installation"
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "aircraft-mechanics-and-service-technicians",
      "title": "Aircraft Mechanics and Service Technicians",
      "verdict": "SAFE",
      "risk_resistance": 71,
      "median_wage": 79870,
      "overlap": 77,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Repairing",
        "Equipment Maintenance",
        "Reading Comprehension",
        "Troubleshooting"
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "ship-engineers",
      "title": "Ship Engineers",
      "verdict": "SAFE",
      "risk_resistance": 73,
      "median_wage": 109530,
      "overlap": 76,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Repairing",
        "Equipment Maintenance",
        "Systems Analysis",
        "Science"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}