{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/set-and-exhibit-designers/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Set and Exhibit Designers", "soc_code": "27-1027", "category": "Media", "us_employment": 10630, "median_annual_wage": 75240 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 45, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 10, "embodiment": 13, "liability_shield": 2, "trust_premium": 9, "judgment_accountability": 11 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "The concept-through-drafting half of your week — thumbnail variations, period reference boards, colored elevations, painter's elevations, model photos for the production meeting — is now generated output, while the half that holds is site survey on a raked stage, material substitution when the lauan is backordered, tech-week notes, and mount design against ADA reach ranges, which lands this at 10 rather than the 14+ a purely on-site trade would get.", "embodiment": "You are in the shop and on the deck: measuring a proscenium that isn't square, checking sightlines from row F, riding a lift to look at a drop, walking an exhibit in mid-install with case glass on pallets and dust in the air — uncontrolled spaces on someone else's schedule, though you're specifying and supervising rather than swinging the hammer for eight hours, which is why 13 and not 17.", "liability_shield": "No licence exists for set or exhibit design; the technical director, the licensed structural engineer stamping the rigging or a mezzanine, and the venue's fire marshal review of flame-spread ratings are the signatures that carry legal weight, so your drawing gets approved by someone else's credential and 2 is honest.", "trust_premium": "Directors, curators, and production designers rehire designers they've survived a tech week with, and the shorthand built over three shows is real — but you're hired per production through a portfolio and an interview, often competing against a dozen decks, and the audience never learns your name, which caps this at 9.", "judgment_accountability": "You commit the show to a scenic budget and a build calendar with no way to unspend it — choosing a turntable over wagons, deciding an artifact can hang unvitrined, calling whether a deck will hold a full-cast dance number — decisions the TD and producer can override but that are yours to propose and defend, which is genuine discretion short of the 14+ where a wrong call is a life-safety event you personally own." }, "rationale": "The front half of this job — mood boards, period research, concept renderings, sketch variations, drafting elevations in CAD/SketchUp — is exactly what image and drafting models now produce in minutes, and directors and curators are already using them for early looks. What survives is downstream and physical: walking a stage or gallery, specifying real materials and load paths, hitting a budget, and standing in the shop when a flat doesn't fit. Scored for the modal worker across theater/film sets and museum exhibits; the exhibit side has slightly more surviving fabrication and accessibility work.", "outlook": "Concept and rendering hours collapse and fewer junior design roles get funded, while designers who can specify, budget, and supervise an actual build keep steady work.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Concept-render and CAD-elevation tiers collapse into AI tooling, leaving the job as on-site fit-out: material specification against fire code (NFPA 701 flame-spread certification for scenic fabric), rigging load paths, sightline verification in the actual room, and shop supervision when built geometry deviates from drawings. This is a genuine two-tier occupation and the residual tier is the judgment tier.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "embodiment", "change": "Museum exhibit work absorbing more mount-making, artifact-handling and ADA physical-access verification (reach ranges, tactile stations) that must be measured and adjusted in the gallery; if institutions keep pushing accessibility retrofits under the 2024 DOJ Title II web/physical rules, more of the week is in-space.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Jurisdictions requiring a licensed structural engineer or registered architect to stamp temporary scenic and exhibit structures — already the practice in NYC DOB for large public assembly installations and in some state fair/expo permitting. If designers who hold PE/RA licenses become the required signatory rather than a consulting engineer downstream, the shield attaches to the role. Also: IATSE/USA829 contract language making the designer of record responsible for rigging load specification.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "United Scenic Artists Local USA 829 contract terms restricting AI-generated design deliverables or requiring credit and consent for training on member portfolios, mirroring the 2023 WGA MBA and SAG-AFTRA AI provisions. Awards eligibility rules (Tony, Drama Desk, AAM excellence awards) conditioning nomination on human authorship would reinforce it at the prestige tier only.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Being named designer of record on permit and insurance documents for public-assembly installations, so crowd-flow, egress and artifact-safety calls are traceable to the role; carriers writing exhibit liability policies increasingly ask who specified the mount and the material.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 } ], "ceiling_note": "Even with every lever, this sits in the 60s. The occupation is small (10,630) and mostly employed on short contracts where clients buy a look, not a signature; the licensure route runs through PE/RA credentials most set designers do not hold, which means the shield may attach to engineers rather than to designers. Trust premium gains concentrate in Broadway/major-museum work and do not reach regional theater, trade show, or retail display." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 11490, "wage": 53090 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 10590, "wage": 54270 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 12040, "wage": 54600 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 10980, "wage": 58180 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 6850, "wage": 54860 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 9490, "wage": 59990 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 10090, "wage": 59490 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 10850, "wage": 66280 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 10630, "wage": 75240 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -7.5, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "architects-except-landscape-and-naval", "title": "Architects, Except Landscape and Naval", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 61, "median_wage": 99280, "overlap": 72, "skills_to_close": [ "Science", "Quality Control Analysis", "Monitoring", "Writing" ] }, { "slug": "architecture-teachers-postsecondary", "title": "Architecture Teachers, Postsecondary", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 58, "median_wage": 96870, "overlap": 66, "skills_to_close": [ "Learning Strategies", "Instructing", "Active Learning", "Writing" ] }, { "slug": "art-drama-and-music-teachers-postsecondary", "title": "Art, Drama, and Music Teachers, Postsecondary", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 58, "median_wage": 78620, "overlap": 54, "skills_to_close": [ "Instructing", "Learning Strategies", "Active Learning", "Speaking" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }