{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/sheet-metal-workers/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Sheet Metal Workers", "soc_code": "47-2211", "category": "Construction", "us_employment": 119770, "median_annual_wage": 61800 }, "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 67, "contested": true, "near_boundary": true, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 16, "embodiment": 20, "liability_shield": 7, "trust_premium": 11, "judgment_accountability": 13 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Field measuring an as-built shaft that's 3/4 inch out of plumb, breaking a transition on a brake to fit it, and hanging it on trapeze hangers between existing sprinkler mains is sequential improvised work — the 16 rather than 19 reflects that layout, nesting and CNC cut lists, once a real part of the trade, are now generated upstream from the BIM model.", "embodiment": "Crawling a 30-inch plenum, working off a scissor lift on a rooftop curb, screwing standing-seam panels in wind, and carrying 4x10 sheets up stairs in an unconditioned shell is the whole job — there is no version of this done from a chair.", "liability_shield": "No state licence gates the trade; the 7 comes from what shops actually require — OSHA 10/30, welding and brazing certs, SMACNA and NFPA 90A duct standards you must build to, and the fact that the mechanical contractor's licence and the inspector's sign-off, not yours, carry the legal exposure on the smoke-damper installation you just made.", "trust_premium": "Repeat work comes from the GC and mechanical foreman knowing your ductwork will pass a leakage test and your hangers won't need re-doing, plus the union hall and journeyman reputation that gets you called first — but the owner never learns your name and the bid, not the relationship, wins the job.", "judgment_accountability": "You decide on the spot how to reroute a main around an unmarked structural beam, whether a fitting can be field-modified or has to go back to the shop, and how to seal a fire-rated penetration when the detail on the drawing doesn't exist in the field — real calls with money and life-safety consequences, held below 14 because the foreman, engineer and RFI process own the ones that change the design." }, "rationale": "The core of this job — measuring in place, fabricating and hanging ductwork, flashing, and architectural panels in attics, plenums, rooftops and unfinished buildings — is physical work in spaces no current robot navigates. AI is already eating the front end: takeoffs, sheet nesting, CNC programming, BIM coordination drawings and cut lists that used to be layout hours. The modal worker is a field installer, and that tier is durable; shop-only fabricators who mainly drive plasma tables and press brakes face more pressure as nesting and machine setup automate.", "outlook": "Detailing and shop-floor programming headcount shrinks while demand for field installers holds or grows with HVAC retrofits, electrification and data center construction.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Expansion of state/local licensing that ties life-safety sheet metal work to a certified individual signing off — e.g. smoke-control damper and grease duct (NFPA 96) installations requiring a certified installer's affidavit, or ICC/SMACNA-credentialed technicians required to sign TAB and duct-leakage test reports for energy-code compliance (already required in California Title 24 via HERS raters, and in some jurisdictions for smoke control special inspection under IBC 1705.18)", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Fire/life-safety inspection regimes naming a credentialed person on the record: annual fire and smoke damper inspection (NFPA 80/105) performed and attested by a certified individual, adopted by more state fire marshals as an enforced requirement rather than a guideline", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Task-mix shift as nesting, CNC programming and BIM coordination automate: the residual role concentrates on field verification of as-built conditions, hanger and seismic bracing decisions, and rework where the model conflicts with installed conditions — a genuine second tier that current AI cannot execute. Watch for shop headcount falling while field journeyman hours per project hold", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 2 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Field authority formalized in contract documents: BIM execution plans and prefab contracts naming the installing foreman as the party who authorizes deviation from coordinated models, with signed field change records — already appearing in large mechanical contractors' LOD 400 workflows", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Architectural metal and historic restoration work where owners specify hand-formed copper, zinc or standing-seam by named craftsmen (Secretary of the Interior standards work, preservation tax credit projects). Narrow slice of the occupation, not the modal duct installer", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 2 } ], "ceiling_note": "Embodiment is already maxed and cannot rise. The realistic ceiling is high-70s; the constraint is that most ductwork is commercial subcontract work bid on price, where no buyer pays for a named human and the general contractor, not the installer, carries the liability." }, "adjudication": { "method": "two independent runs disagreed; merge is rounding-dependent", "outcome": "unresolved — published score left unchanged", "run_totals": [ 67, 64 ], "run_verdicts": [ "SAFE", "EXPOSED" ] }, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 132920, "wage": 47990 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 131570, "wage": 48460 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 131300, "wage": 50400 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 128220, "wage": 51370 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 122630, "wage": 53440 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 120810, "wage": 55350 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 116190, "wage": 58780 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 117470, "wage": 60850 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 119770, "wage": 61800 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -9.9, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }