{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/ship-engineers/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Ship Engineers",
    "soc_code": "53-5031",
    "category": "Transportation",
    "us_employment": 8400,
    "median_annual_wage": 109530
  },
  "verdict": "SAFE",
  "risk_resistance": 73,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 15,
    "embodiment": 19,
    "liability_shield": 16,
    "trust_premium": 7,
    "judgment_accountability": 16
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Condition-monitoring and planned-maintenance software has genuinely eaten the logging, trending and requisition side of the job, but the core work — crawling a hot engine room to find which of six fuel injectors is misfiring, breaking down a cylinder head at sea, repacking a shaft seal, rewiring a failed starter panel — has no digital substitute, which is why this sits at 15 rather than 18: a real slice of the watch is now screen-and-paperwork.",
    "embodiment": "The workplace is a moving steel box with 90-plus dB noise, 45°C ambient heat, fuel oil underfoot, and confined-space entries into tanks and crankcases; you go aloft in the stack, into the bilge, and under the floorplates, and nothing about that transfers to a remote operator.",
    "liability_shield": "USCG-issued engineer officer licences and STCW endorsements are held by the individual, not the vessel, and a Chief or Assistant Engineer's licence can be suspended or revoked in an administrative proceeding after an oil discharge, a machinery casualty, or a false oil record book entry — 33 CFR and the ISM Code both attach responsibility to the named engineering officer on the certificate.",
    "trust_premium": "Nobody charters a ship because of who is on the plate in the engine room; the relationship that matters is with the Master, the port engineer, and class surveyors — enough that reputation moves berths and promotions, but the customer never knows your name.",
    "judgment_accountability": "The call to slow, shut down, or keep running a main engine with rising bearing temperatures 800 miles from land is made by the engineer on watch with incomplete information, and both choices carry real consequences — machinery destruction versus loss of propulsion in a shipping lane — with no supervisor to escalate to before the decision has to be made."
  },
  "rationale": "Ship engineers spend their shifts inside engine rooms diagnosing vibration, heat, and leaks on diesel propulsion plants, boilers, generators, pumps, and steering gear, then physically repairing them with no shipyard within a thousand miles. AI can already handle the paperwork tier — engine logs, fuel consumption reports, maintenance scheduling, spare-parts requisitions, ISM documentation — and condition-monitoring systems increasingly flag faults before a human does. What does not automate is the licensed engineer standing watch, deciding whether to shut down a failing main engine mid-passage, and signing for it under USCG and STCW authority.",
  "outlook": "Crew sizes will keep shrinking and remote monitoring will strip out the reporting work, but a licensed engineer will still be aboard turning wrenches and owning the call for well past ten years.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "IMO's non-mandatory MASS Code (target 2028 mandatory) and USCG's rulemaking on autonomous/remotely-operated vessels could codify that a STCW-certificated engineer officer must hold the watch responsibility for machinery even when a shore-based remote operations center is monitoring — i.e. an explicit named 'designated engineer of record' per hull, with certificate endorsement and personal liability under 46 CFR manning rules. Class societies (ABS, DNV) already issue autonomous-notation rules that require an attending engineer signature for unattended machinery space (UMS) certification renewals.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Task-mix shift: this occupation has a clean two-tier structure. If condition-monitoring and AI take the log-keeping, fuel/EEXI-CII reporting, ISM documentation, planned-maintenance scheduling and spares requisitioning tier, the residual role is entirely the judgment/hands tier — mid-ocean fault isolation, improvised repair with onboard stock, shutdown calls. The measured share of the day AI cannot do rises even though AI got better.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "If remote-monitoring centers concentrate multiple vessels under one licensed chief (the DNV/Kongsberg ROC model, and Fincantieri/Yara Birkeland-style trials), the individual engineer's call spans several hulls and much larger consequence per decision. A USCG or flag-state rule assigning ROC engineers explicit casualty-response authority — parallel to how NTSB/USCG casualty investigations already name the chief engineer in engine-room fires — would push this to the top of the band.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "A P&I club or hull underwriter condition (e.g. an International Group circular) denying or loading coverage on voyages where machinery-space watch is not held by a certificated engineer, following an autonomous-vessel machinery casualty. Insurer warranties of this kind already exist for ice class and for unattended machinery space certification.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 2
      },
      {
        "dimension": "trust_premium",
        "change": "Charterer vetting regimes (OCIMF SIRE 2.0 for tankers, RightShip for dry bulk) adding a scored inspection element for engine-department manning depth above statutory minimum, which would make crewed engine rooms a commercial requirement rather than a cost. This is the only realistic route; general buyers of shipping do not pay for human engineers and never will, so the ceiling here is low.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 2
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "Embodiment at 19 and task_resistance are near their practical maximum — there is no headroom worth chasing there. The real downside risk is not AI capability but crewing-level deregulation: if flag states permit periodically-unattended or shore-supervised machinery spaces on deep-sea tonnage, headcount falls sharply even though each remaining engineer's score rises. A smaller, more protected occupation is a real possible outcome."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 7890,
        "wage": 73110
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 8740,
        "wage": 71130
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 8410,
        "wage": 74610
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 7480,
        "wage": 75990
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 7650,
        "wage": 82410
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 8650,
        "wage": 87300
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 8860,
        "wage": 94270
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 8580,
        "wage": 101320
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 8400,
        "wage": 109530
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": 6.5,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}