{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/shoe-and-leather-workers-and-repairers/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers",
    "soc_code": "51-6041",
    "category": "Production",
    "us_employment": 7450,
    "median_annual_wage": 37800
  },
  "verdict": "EXPOSED",
  "risk_resistance": 57,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 17,
    "embodiment": 18,
    "liability_shield": 1,
    "trust_premium": 11,
    "judgment_accountability": 10
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Every job that comes through the door is a differently worn object — a heel counter broken on one side, a sole delaminated unevenly, a vintage upper that will crack if you pull the last too hard — so there is no repeatable input for a machine to grip, which is why this sits at 17 rather than in the mixed band where factory shoe assembly would fall.",
    "embodiment": "You are at a finisher wheel breathing dust, hand-skiving with a knife, feeling by thumb whether cement has tacked up, and pounding lasts — the only part of the day a screen touches is ringing up the ticket, so 18 rather than a full 20 only because the shop bench is your own controlled space, not a customer's roof or roadside.",
    "liability_shield": "No state licenses shoe repair, no board can pull your ticket, and even orthopedic lift work is typically done to a pedorthist's or podiatrist's spec rather than on your own authority — the 1 reflects that the only thing standing between you and a competitor is your reputation, not a credential.",
    "trust_premium": "Customers hand over $400 boots or a grandmother's handbag because they trust you specifically and come back for years, which is real relationship value, but the 11 stops short of 13+ because plenty of work is drop-off, mail-in, or routed through a dry cleaner or retailer who never mentions your name.",
    "judgment_accountability": "You decide whether an upper will survive a re-last, whether to rebuild or refuse, and how to match a 20-year-old dye lot — genuine calls with a customer's money and sentiment on the line, but the 10 rather than 14+ is because the failure mode is a ruined shoe and a refund, not injury or legal consequence."
  },
  "rationale": "Resoling a boot, restitching a torn handbag, dyeing and burnishing leather, and fitting orthopedic lifts are manual tasks on non-standard, worn objects — nothing current AI or robotics does at usable quality or cost. The exposure here isn't AI at all: it's disposable footwear, offshore manufacturing, and an aging workforce shrinking the trade, plus AI eating the thin office layer (quoting, invoicing, order intake, customer messaging). No license is required, so there's no regulatory floor under the work, and the modal worker is a small-shop repairer rather than a factory operative.",
  "outlook": "The craft itself is safe from AI, but the occupation keeps shrinking on economics — expect fewer, busier, higher-priced shops concentrated in restoration, orthopedic work, and brand-authorized repair.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "trust_premium",
        "change": "Growth of the brand-authorized repair channel: if more heritage makers (Allen Edmonds recrafting, Red Wing, Birkenstock rebuild, Hermes/Louis Vuitton and Chanel authorized leather ateliers) route warranty and resale-authentication work only through named human cobblers, and resale platforms (The RealReal, StockX) require a human-restored/authenticated tag for premium listing, buyers are paying for an identified human hand rather than the cheapest repair. Right-to-repair and EU-style durability/reparability labeling rules that require repairability disclosure on footwear would push the same way.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Orthopedic and pedorthic work is the only route to a real regulatory floor: if more state Medicare/Medicaid and private payers require that shoe modifications, lifts and custom inserts under the Therapeutic Shoe Bill be fabricated or fitted under a credentialed pedorthist (ABC C.Ped) or orthotic fitter license — several states already license orthotic fitters — the modification tier of this trade sits behind a personally accountable credential. Watch state licensure bills for orthotic/prosthetic/pedorthic practitioners and payer prior-auth rules naming a C.Ped.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 5
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "If the routine tier (stock resoles, heel tips, quoting, intake) is consolidated into mail-in central plants and software, the surviving shop role is diagnosis under ambiguity: whether a 40-year-old welt can be rebuilt, what a single-source vintage skin will take, whether a $4,000 bag is authentic and salvageable. High-value restoration and insurance-claim damage assessment for leather goods, where the repairer's written opinion drives a payout, puts a consequential call on the worker.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Genuine two-tier structure: the office layer (quoting, invoicing, order intake, customer messaging) is what AI takes. If that layer is fully absorbed, the remaining measured day is bench work on non-standard worn objects, raising the share of the day AI cannot do — though this is a shrinking-headcount route, not a growing one.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 2
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "These levers barely touch the real threat. This occupation's decline driver is disposable footwear, offshore manufacture and workforce attrition, not model capability — task_resistance and embodiment are already near-maxed and a higher score would not mean more jobs. A trade can be perfectly AI-resistant and still disappear."
  },
  "adjudication": {
    "method": "two independent runs agreed on the verdict",
    "outcome": "corroborated",
    "run_totals": [
      57,
      55
    ],
    "run_verdicts": [
      "EXPOSED",
      "EXPOSED"
    ]
  },
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 7180,
        "wage": 25610
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 8640,
        "wage": 28840
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 8760,
        "wage": 29560
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 7380,
        "wage": 30550
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 5620,
        "wage": 31450
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 8860,
        "wage": 32460
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 7230,
        "wage": 36020
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 7640,
        "wage": 35950
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 7450,
        "wage": 37800
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": 3.8,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [
    {
      "slug": "tree-trimmers-and-pruners",
      "title": "Tree Trimmers and Pruners",
      "verdict": "SAFE",
      "risk_resistance": 70,
      "median_wage": 50960,
      "overlap": 63,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Operation and Control",
        "Equipment Maintenance",
        "Equipment Selection",
        "Instructing"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}