{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/shoe-machine-operators-and-tenders/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Shoe Machine Operators and Tenders",
    "soc_code": "51-6042",
    "category": "Production",
    "us_employment": 3280,
    "median_annual_wage": 35650
  },
  "verdict": "COOKED",
  "risk_resistance": 25,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 10,
    "embodiment": 11,
    "liability_shield": 1,
    "trust_premium": 1,
    "judgment_accountability": 2
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Feeding limp, variable leather uppers onto a last and judging when cement tack is right still defeats general-purpose robots, so this sits at 10 rather than 4 — but the stitching, sole-pressing, and heel-nailing cycles themselves are already machine-timed, and computerized stitchers and direct-injection molding lines have absorbed those steps in the plants that remain.",
    "embodiment": "You are standing at a machine, hand-feeding parts, clearing jams, changing needles and dies, and pulling finished pairs off a rack — real hands-on work, but inside a lit factory on a fixed bench with the same fixtures every shift, which is why this lands at 11 and not with the roofers and linemen working in weather and unpredictable spaces.",
    "liability_shield": "No state licence, no certification, no exam gates entry to running a lasting or cementing machine; a supervisor signs off on your training and the plant's OSHA machine-guarding compliance sits with the employer, so there is no personal credential standing between the work and automation.",
    "trust_premium": "The customer buying the shoe never learns your name, and the plant's contract with the brand depends on spec compliance and defect rates, not on any relationship you hold — the 1 reflects that only your line supervisor knows your output quality.",
    "judgment_accountability": "Decisions are bounded to what the work order and machine setup sheet already specify — feed rate, temperature, adhesive amount, stitch length — and anything outside tolerance goes to the mechanic or lead, so the discretion is limited to pulling a bad pair off the line."
  },
  "rationale": "The core of this job — loading uppers and soles into stitching, cementing, lasting, and heel-attaching machines, watching for defects, and adjusting feed rates — is repetitive work on a fixed bench in a controlled factory, which is exactly what purpose-built automation targets. The physical component gives real protection against language AI, but not against dedicated shoe-manufacturing machinery and offshoring, which have already cut US employment to about 3,280. Nothing about the role requires a licensed human or a customer relationship.",
  "outlook": "Employment keeps shrinking through offshoring and line automation; the surviving US work concentrates in bespoke, orthopedic, sample-room, and repair niches where batch sizes are too small to automate.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "trust_premium",
        "change": "Growth of the US bespoke/handmade footwear and resoling segment where buyers explicitly pay for 'handmade in USA' construction (e.g. Goodyear-welt makers like Rancourt, Nicks, Truman, plus the cobbler/resole trade). If surviving US employment concentrates in these shops, the remaining operators are selling human-made provenance rather than throughput — this is the only route, and it shrinks the occupation while raising the score.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 5
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Task-mix shift within surviving shops: fully automated cementing/lasting cells absorb the repetitive bench feeding, leaving hand-lasting, welt stitching on irregular lasts, orthopedic and custom-width builds, and repair work on worn shoes of unknown construction — tasks where every unit differs. Watch whether BLS/OES reclassification and shop job postings shift toward 'hand laster / welter / cobbler' content.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "embodiment",
        "change": "Concentration of remaining work in repair and custom orthopedic footwear, where the workpiece is a used, deformed shoe or a patient-specific last rather than a uniform component — unpredictable fixturing that purpose-built shoe machinery is not designed for. Also driven by any durable reshoring of small-batch production under tariff/procurement pressure (Berry Amendment military boot sourcing already requires domestic manufacture).",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Only narrow route: pedorthic and orthopedic footwear fabrication falling under state licensure or ABC/BOC pedorthist certification requirements, where a credentialed person must sign off on a therapeutic device build. This would apply to a small fraction of workers who are usually classified as pedorthists rather than shoe machine operators, so the effect on this SOC code is marginal.",
        "plausibility": "unlikely",
        "would_add": 2
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "Even with every lever, this stays low. The binding constraint is not AI capability but 3,280 remaining US workers and continued offshoring — the routes above mostly describe a smaller, more artisanal occupation rather than a protected one. There is no plausible path to a liability shield or accountability role for factory bench operation."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 3500,
        "wage": 27420
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 3810,
        "wage": 30430
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 5020,
        "wage": 30570
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 4080,
        "wage": 30630
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 3610,
        "wage": 28560
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 2960,
        "wage": 33060
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 4630,
        "wage": 36970
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 3270,
        "wage": 38160
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 3280,
        "wage": 35650
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": -6.3,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [
    {
      "slug": "coating-painting-and-spraying-machine-setters-operators-and-tenders",
      "title": "Coating, Painting, and Spraying Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders",
      "verdict": "EXPOSED",
      "risk_resistance": 35,
      "median_wage": 48250,
      "overlap": 84,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Coordination",
        "Operations Monitoring",
        "Learning Strategies",
        "Social Perceptiveness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "welding-soldering-and-brazing-machine-setters-operators-and-tenders",
      "title": "Welding, Soldering, and Brazing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders",
      "verdict": "EXPOSED",
      "risk_resistance": 37,
      "median_wage": 47920,
      "overlap": 82,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Science",
        "Active Learning"
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "cutting-punching-and-press-machine-setters-operators-and-tenders-metal-and-plastic",
      "title": "Cutting, Punching, and Press Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic",
      "verdict": "EXPOSED",
      "risk_resistance": 37,
      "median_wage": 46330,
      "overlap": 82,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Active Learning",
        "Coordination",
        "Operations Monitoring"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}