{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/signal-and-track-switch-repairers/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Signal and Track Switch Repairers", "soc_code": "49-9097", "category": "Trades", "us_employment": 8720, "median_annual_wage": 92460 }, "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 67, "contested": false, "near_boundary": true, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 16, "embodiment": 19, "liability_shield": 12, "trust_premium": 7, "judgment_accountability": 13 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Diagnostics can tell you a track circuit is drifting, but nobody has built a machine that pulls a switch machine cover in sleet, files contacts, adjusts point detection to a quarter-inch obstruction test, and re-cranks it under a fouling time window — the ballast, the varied hardware vintages, and the cable splicing keep this at 16 rather than mid-band.", "embodiment": "You work on live right-of-way with train movements around you, in bungalows and cases at grade crossings, in mud and heat and ice, climbing to signal heads and digging to cable — an environment no controlled-cell robot handles, which is why this sits at 19 instead of 13.", "liability_shield": "There's no state licence, but 49 CFR 236 requires you to be FRA-qualified for the specific tests you perform and your name goes on the test record the FRA inspector reads — a personal, auditable federal obligation that lands at 12 rather than 18, since the railroad's signal department, not you, holds the system-level responsibility.", "trust_premium": "The dispatcher, foreman, and MOW crews come to trust a specific signal maintainer's word that a crossing or switch is good, but the work is assigned by territory and callout, not chosen by a client, which caps this at 7.", "judgment_accountability": "When you decide a switch's point detection is within tolerance, whether to place a track out of service, or how to protect a crossing running in flash mode, you're making calls with train movements and crossing motorists on the other side — real discretion under 236 rules, though the rules and test procedures themselves are written for you, holding it at 13." }, "rationale": "The job is walking track, opening signal cases and switch machines in weather, testing relays and track circuits, adjusting point detection, and splicing cable — none of which a language model can touch and none of which current robotics can do on live right-of-way. AI will absorb the paperwork side: test records, defect logs, scheduling of periodic inspections, and remote diagnostics from wayside monitoring that flags a failing circuit before you arrive. What persists is the FRA-qualified human who physically performs and certifies signal tests and decides whether a track can be released to traffic.", "outlook": "Remote diagnostics will cut wasted truck rolls and shrink crew sizes modestly, but every signal test, switch adjustment, and cable repair still needs a qualified human on the ballast for the next decade.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "FRA tightening 49 CFR Part 236 Subpart A qualification/certification rules so that any signal test — including those prompted or pre-diagnosed by wayside/PTC monitoring — must be performed and personally certified by a named FRA-qualified signal employee, with remote or algorithmic verification explicitly disallowed as a substitute. FRA has an open track record of rulemaking here (Part 236 revisions, PTC-era test requirements) and BRS (Brotherhood of Railroad Signalmen) has actively pushed against remote/automated test substitution in agreement negotiations and FRA comment dockets.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "A minimum-signal-crew or minimum-qualification provision in a national BRS agreement or a state rail safety statute (analogous to the two-person crew laws enacted in CA, WA, AZ, NV and the FRA 2024 crew size rule) requiring an on-ground qualified signalman for switch/interlocking work rather than a contractor with remote support.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Release-to-traffic authority being formalized as a personally logged decision — an FRA or carrier rule naming the individual signal employee who authorizes restoration of a signal or switch to service after failure, with that name attached in NTSB/FRA accident investigations. This is the pattern already visible in post-incident FRA findings after signal-related derailments.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Task-mix shift is genuine here: wayside condition monitoring and automated defect logging absorb the routine periodic-inspection tier, leaving intermittent-fault diagnosis, cutover work on new interlockings, and storm/derailment restoration — the tier where the failure is not what the sensor said it was. Score rises only as the routine tier leaves, and only if headcount is not cut proportionally.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 2 } ], "ceiling_note": "Embodiment at 19 and task_resistance at 16 are effectively at ceiling; the composite has little room. Trust premium has no plausible route — the buyer is a Class I railroad or transit agency purchasing compliance, not a human touch, and no end passenger ever chooses a signal repairer. The real risk to this occupation is headcount compression from remote diagnostics and contracting-out, not task automation, and no dimension here captures that." }, "adjudication": { "method": "two independent runs agreed on the verdict", "outcome": "corroborated", "run_totals": [ 67, 69 ], "run_verdicts": [ "SAFE", "SAFE" ] }, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 8300, "wage": 68400 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 7730, "wage": 70490 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 6860, "wage": 73890 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 7250, "wage": 76210 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 8090, "wage": 80570 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 6880, "wage": 81300 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 9200, "wage": 82710 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 8210, "wage": 83600 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 8720, "wage": 92460 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": 5.1, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }