{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/solar-photovoltaic-installers/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Solar Photovoltaic Installers", "soc_code": "47-2231", "category": "Construction", "us_employment": 31350, "median_annual_wage": 53140 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 65, "contested": true, "near_boundary": true, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 17, "embodiment": 19, "liability_shield": 9, "trust_premium": 10, "judgment_accountability": 10 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Locating rafters through decking, setting standoffs and flashing them watertight, and terminating DC homeruns in a live combiner box are per-roof judgment-and-hands tasks that no software touches — 17 rather than 20 because the design side (string sizing, layout, shade modeling in Aurora/HelioScope) that installers used to do by hand is now generated before you get to the site.", "embodiment": "You work at height on pitched composition or tile roofs, in attics above 130°F, hauling 50-lb modules up ladders in wind, with fall-arrest anchors you install yourself — 19 because the environment is genuinely uncontrolled and varies every address, short of 20 only because ground-mount and carport work is flatter and increasingly crane-assisted.", "liability_shield": "NABCEP PV Installation Professional is respected but voluntary, and in most states the electrical permit and the AHJ inspection sign-off ride on the licensed electrician or C-46/C-10 contractor, not on the installer torquing the lugs — 9 rather than 4 because a growing number of states require an electrician on the DC side and the crew lead often holds a journeyman card.", "trust_premium": "Homeowners meet you on the day of install after the sales rep and designer are gone, so the panel walkthrough, the monitoring app handoff, and the callback for a tripped rapid-shutdown are the only relationship — 10 rather than 15 because the contract, warranty, and financing all belong to the company brand, and a different crew shows up for the service call.", "judgment_accountability": "You decide in the field whether a rafter is too split to bolt, whether a roof plane needs re-flashing before racking, and how to reroute conduit when the plan set conflicts with the actual truss layout — 10 rather than 16 because the array design, module count, and inverter selection arrive fixed from engineering and any real deviation goes back for a revised permit." }, "rationale": "The core of this job — carrying panels up a ladder, lag-bolting rails into rafters you have to find by feel, flashing penetrations so a roof doesn't leak, torquing MC4 connectors, and pulling conduit through an attic in August — is nowhere near robotic reach, and language AI does none of it. What AI does erode is the paperwork layer around the install: shade analysis and array layout, string sizing, permit packages, interconnection applications, and customer proposals are already largely software-generated. Licensure is the soft spot: the modal installer works under a licensed electrician or contractor who signs the permit and owns the liability, so the regulatory shield protects the crew lead and the EC, not every installer.", "outlook": "Demand, not AI, is the swing factor — the physical work stays human through the 2030s, but tax-credit and policy shifts can move headcount hard, so the installers who add an electrical license and storage/service skills will be the ones still working steadily.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "State licensing boards or codes requiring that PV-specific work be performed by a credentialed individual, not merely supervised by an EC — e.g. expansion of state solar contractor licenses (as in Nevada's C-2g classification, Utah's S-202) plus utility interconnection rules or AHJ inspection checklists that require a NABCEP-certified installer on-site and named on the permit, with personal accountability for rapid-shutdown and arc-fault compliance under NEC 690/705", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 5 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Insurer/warranty-driven credentialing: module and inverter manufacturers, and roof-warranty carriers, voiding coverage unless the penetration and flashing work is done by a certified installer of record who signs off — already partly in motion via roofing manufacturer certified-contractor programs and IRA-era prevailing-wage/apprenticeship bonus credit conditions tied to registered apprenticeship hours", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Task-mix shift as design, string sizing, permitting and proposals fully automate: the remaining paid work concentrates in field diagnosis — locating rafters in non-standard framing, retrofit service calls on aging arrays, battery/main-panel-upgrade integration, and code-driven re-work — which is the judgment tier of an occupation that genuinely has two tiers", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 2 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Growth of storage and load-management scope (NEC 705.12/706, service-panel derating decisions, backup-load prioritization) placing consequential fire- and outage-risk calls on the crew lead rather than the desk designer, especially where AHJs accept field-modified plans", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 } ], "ceiling_note": "Embodiment and task_resistance are already near ceiling; there is no realistic route to a trust premium — residential buyers shop on price per watt and choose the salesperson's brand, not the installer, and utility-scale procurement is explicitly cost-driven. The real exposure here is not the AI displacing the hands but automated design/permitting collapsing crew hours per install and squeezing headcount." }, "adjudication": { "method": "two independent runs disagreed; merge is rounding-dependent", "outcome": "unresolved — published score left unchanged", "run_totals": [ 65, 68 ], "run_verdicts": [ "EXPOSED", "SAFE" ] }, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 9000, "wage": 39490 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 8950, "wage": 42680 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 11080, "wage": 44890 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 11490, "wage": 46470 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 16420, "wage": 47670 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 27760, "wage": 45230 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 24510, "wage": 48800 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 28280, "wage": 51860 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 31350, "wage": 53140 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": 248.3, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "plumbers-pipefitters-and-steamfitters", "title": "Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 86, "median_wage": 63800, "overlap": 92, "skills_to_close": [ "Writing", "Repairing" ] }, { "slug": "heating-air-conditioning-and-refrigeration-mechanics-and-installers", "title": "Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 75, "median_wage": 61010, "overlap": 86, "skills_to_close": [ "Repairing", "Writing", "Equipment Maintenance", "Operations Monitoring" ] }, { "slug": "electricians", "title": "Electricians", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 80, "median_wage": 63190, "overlap": 74, "skills_to_close": [ "Troubleshooting", "Repairing", "Operations Analysis", "Writing" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }