{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/structural-iron-and-steel-workers/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Structural Iron and Steel Workers", "soc_code": "47-2221", "category": "Construction", "us_employment": 68380, "median_annual_wage": 62780 }, "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 68, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 18, "embodiment": 20, "liability_shield": 8, "trust_premium": 10, "judgment_accountability": 12 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "An 18 reflects that the actual raise — spudding a wrench into a misaligned hole, tapping a beam into place with a sledge while it hangs on the choker, plumbing a bay with turnbuckles and a transit until it reads true — has no digitizable step, and the only reason it isn't 20 is that detailing, bolt takeoffs, and erection sequencing that used to be worked out on the deck now arrive as BIM output and shop-fabbed assemblies.", "embodiment": "A 20 is the ceiling because the work happens on a 6-inch flange 200 feet up in whatever weather the day brings, with connection material, torch leads, and impact wrenches carried on the belt and every tie-in a one-off fit — there is no controlled-environment version of decking a floor or setting a column.", "liability_shield": "An 8 recognizes that ironworkers hold real certifications with legal teeth — AWS/D1.1 welder qualification, crane signalperson and rigger cards under 1926 Subpart CC, OSHA 10/30 — but the structure is signed off by the engineer of record and the special inspector, so a failed weld comes back as a rejected joint and a requalification test, not personal liability to a third party.", "trust_premium": "A 10 is about the raising gang, not the client: the connector trusts a specific hookup man's signals and a specific operator's hoist, and superintendents call the hall for named hands who can bolt up fast and safe — but the owner never meets you, and the next job comes through the local's out-of-work list, not your book of business.", "judgment_accountability": "A 12 covers the calls made without a supervisor at your elbow — whether a pick is rigged safely for the load and wind, whether a connection is stable enough to unhook, whether to reject bent or short-bolted material — but the erection sequence, crane plan, and connection design come to you already engineered, which keeps it below the 14+ band." }, "rationale": "Bolting up columns and beams at 200 feet, signaling cranes, plumbing steel with turnbuckles, and burning and welding connections in wind, rain, and mud is the least robot-ready work in the economy — the environment changes every hour and every piece is a one-off fit. AI touches the paperwork around the job (shop drawing takeoffs, sequencing plans, erection schedules, safety documentation), not the raise. The main threats are construction cycles and prefabrication moving work into controlled shops, not language models.", "outlook": "Demand tracks nonresidential and infrastructure construction rather than AI; expect stable-to-growing employment with more work arriving pre-fabricated and bolt-ready, shifting hours toward rigging, connecting, and field-fixing rather than fabrication.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "AWS D1.1/D1.8 and AISC erection practice increasingly tie critical connections to certified welders whose stamp travels with the weld; state and city rules that require a licensed/certified welder or a certified rigger-signalperson (already mandatory under OSHA 1926.1428 and NYC DOB rigger licensing) for each lift, with personal certificate exposure on failure, would push this up. Expansion of seismic-zone jurisdictions requiring a certified erector-of-record signature on connection completion reports would add most of the movement.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 5 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "If stop-work authority is contractually vested in the connector/rigger — as in some Ironworkers Local project labor agreements and owner safety programs where the person hooking the load can refuse a pick without contest — the role formally owns the consequential call on wind, load charts, and unstable fit-up rather than the superintendent.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Two tiers exist: repetitive deck and joist work is what prefabrication and shop assembly pull away first, leaving field retrofit, connection re-fit on out-of-tolerance steel, and heavy rigging in occupied structures. If prefab keeps taking the routine tier, the residual job is the judgment tier and per-worker resistance rises even as headcount falls.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 2 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Owner or insurer specification of union-certified ironworkers with completed apprenticeship (common in PLAs and on public infrastructure under Davis-Bacon and federal project labor agreement requirements) is a buyer paying specifically for a credentialed human crew rather than lowest-cost erection.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 } ], "ceiling_note": "Headcount, not displacement, is the real exposure: prefabrication and construction cycles can shrink the occupation sharply while every dimension score stays high. A high score here describes the surviving job, not the number of jobs." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 74420, "wage": 52610 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 77410, "wage": 53970 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 76570, "wage": 55040 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 71490, "wage": 54830 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 68620, "wage": 58550 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 66810, "wage": 60500 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 63780, "wage": 62760 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 64720, "wage": 62700 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 68380, "wage": 62780 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -8.1, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }