{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/substitute-teachers-short-term/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Substitute Teachers, Short-Term", "soc_code": "25-3031", "category": "Education", "us_employment": 524770, "median_annual_wage": 41670 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 53, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 14, "embodiment": 16, "liability_shield": 7, "trust_premium": 9, "judgment_accountability": 7 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Delivering someone else's lesson to a room of 25 seventh-graders, breaking up a shoving match, and getting signatures on a fire-drill roster are tasks no model performs; the 14 rather than 18 reflects that the paper layer of the day — worksheet generation, sub notes, fill-in busywork, grading the packet you handed out — is already being produced by AI before you walk in.", "embodiment": "You are physically in the building for the full bell schedule: hallway and cafeteria duty, walking a nosebleed to the health office, standing between two kids, unlocking a classroom in a school you've never entered — 16 not 20 only because it's a controlled indoor site rather than a rooftop or a rig floor.", "liability_shield": "Most states issue substitutes an emergency permit or 30-day authorization on a bachelor's degree or fewer credits, not a teaching license, and the principal or teacher of record owns instructional accountability — the 7 comes from the fingerprint/background clearance and mandatory-reporter duty under state child-abuse statutes, which are real personal obligations you cannot delegate.", "trust_premium": "The assignment is often a same-morning phone call to a name on a district list, and students know you're temporary; the 9 rather than 3 reflects that building secretaries and principals request specific subs by name and steady requesters get the calls, so your reputation inside two or three schools does determine whether you work.", "judgment_accountability": "You mostly execute a plan left on the desk and follow the district discipline flowchart, but you decide alone whether a student leaves the room, whether behavior gets written up, and whether something a kid says triggers a report — genuine calls, made without knowing the child's history, which is what keeps it at 7 rather than in the low teens." }, "rationale": "The core job is being a responsible adult body in a room with 25 minors: taking attendance, keeping order, walking students to the nurse, following a lesson plan someone else wrote. None of that is text-on-a-screen work, and no robot supervises a middle-school hallway, so AI barely touches the day. The exposure is different in kind — the plan-writing and worksheet-generating layer is already AI'd, most states require only a permit rather than a full license, and districts can substitute cheaper coverage models (larger combined rooms, paraprofessional pooling, asynchronous district-provided video lessons) that compress how many sub-days exist.", "outlook": "Demand for adult supervision in schools does not disappear by 2035, but pay stays low, AI absorbs the planning and grading portion of the day, and the reliable money migrates to credentialed long-term and special-education coverage.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "State education codes or fire-marshal/child-supervision rules that fix a hard adult-to-student supervision ratio per physical room and forbid counting a streamed teacher or a pooled para toward it — i.e. the 'combined room' workaround becomes illegal rather than merely unpopular. Several states already set ratios for early grades and for special-education classrooms; extending an explicit per-room credentialed-adult requirement to grades 6-12 would convert sub-days from a budget line into a compliance line. Also watch district insurance carriers requiring a permitted, background-cleared, restraint-trained adult present for coverage of student-injury claims.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 5 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Formal designation of the covering adult as the accountable party for mandated child-abuse reporting, Title IX incident reporting, IEP/504 accommodation delivery, and physical-restraint/seclusion decisions during the period they hold the room — with documented training (de-escalation, restraint certification) and named liability, as is already spreading through state restraint-and-seclusion statutes and post-incident litigation. This makes the substitute an owner of consequential ambiguous calls rather than a warm body following a plan.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Collectively bargained language banning class combination and asynchronous video coverage as substitutes for an in-room adult — CTU, UTLA and several state affiliates have pushed exactly this since 2021 remote-coverage fights. A ratified contract clause requiring a live substitute for any absence over a set length, or a state law barring uncertified-adult 'study hall' coverage, converts the sub from an optional cost into a required purchase.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Task-mix shift: if district-provided AI lesson delivery becomes the norm, the residual day is behavior management, crisis response, accommodation compliance and physical supervision — the tier machines cannot do. This raises resistance per remaining day even while shrinking the number of days, so the score can rise as headcount falls.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 } ], "ceiling_note": "The dimension scores can rise while the occupation still shrinks: the binding threat here is coverage-model substitution and total sub-days demanded, not AI performing the tasks. A higher liability shield protects the role's definition, not its volume." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2019, "emp": 587120, "wage": 28790 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 512030, "wage": 29370 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 374620, "wage": 30100 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 397200, "wage": 35250 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 444530, "wage": 37380 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 481300, "wage": 38470 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 524770, "wage": 41670 } ], "from": 2019, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -10.6, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": false }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "preschool-teachers-except-special-education", "title": "Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 73, "median_wage": 38140, "overlap": 73, "skills_to_close": [ "Coordination", "Learning Strategies", "Management of Material Resources", "Quality Control Analysis" ] }, { "slug": "special-education-teachers-preschool", "title": "Special Education Teachers, Preschool", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 82, "median_wage": 64830, "overlap": 71, "skills_to_close": [ "Systems Evaluation", "Systems Analysis", "Judgment and Decision Making", "Learning Strategies" ] }, { "slug": "kindergarten-teachers-except-special-education", "title": "Kindergarten Teachers, Except Special Education", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 75, "median_wage": 62680, "overlap": 64, "skills_to_close": [ "Coordination", "Systems Evaluation", "Learning Strategies", "Judgment and Decision Making" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }