{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/tailors-dressmakers-and-custom-sewers/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Tailors, Dressmakers, and Custom Sewers",
    "soc_code": "51-6052",
    "category": "Production",
    "us_employment": 13920,
    "median_annual_wage": 41640
  },
  "verdict": "EXPOSED",
  "risk_resistance": 59,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 17,
    "embodiment": 18,
    "liability_shield": 1,
    "trust_premium": 13,
    "judgment_accountability": 10
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Fitting a jacket on a live client, easing a sleeve head, taking in a princess seam by eye, and rebuilding a bridal bodice three days before the wedding are per-garment problems with no repeatable digital input — the drafting and grading that AI can take is a minority of the billable hours in an alterations shop, which is what holds this at 17 rather than the low teens.",
    "embodiment": "The work is entirely hands-on-cloth in a space that changes with every customer: kneeling to chalk a trouser break, pressing with a hot iron and clapper, manipulating limp bias silk under a needle, and standing at a form for hours — 18 rather than 20 only because the shop itself is a fixed indoor bench, not a roof or a roadside.",
    "liability_shield": "No state licence, no board exam, no certification anyone asks to see; you can open a tailoring shop tomorrow with a machine and a business licence, and a ruined $4,000 gown is settled as a commercial dispute over the garment's value, not a professional negligence claim against a credentialed person.",
    "trust_premium": "Repeat customers bring their whole wardrobe to the one person who already knows they carry a low right shoulder and prefers a 1.5-inch cuff, and bridal and made-to-measure work is booked on referral and rapport over months — 13 rather than 17 because dry-cleaner counter alterations and one-off hem jobs are genuinely interchangeable work.",
    "judgment_accountability": "Deciding whether a garment can be let out without shadowing the old seamline, whether to recut or ease, and how to salvage a mis-cut panel are calls with real money and irreversible scissors behind them, but they sit inside long-settled craft practice with the customer approving at each fitting — that's discretion inside a known frame, not owning an ambiguous high-stakes outcome alone."
  },
  "rationale": "Pinning a hem on a moving body, reading how a shoulder seam falls, and coaxing bias-cut silk through a machine are dexterity problems robotics has not solved — limp-fabric manipulation remains one of the hardest open problems in automation. What AI does erode is the front end: design sketching, pattern drafting and grading, measurement-to-size prediction, and the consultation/mood-board work that used to justify a bespoke premium. The real headwind for this occupation is not AI but cheap ready-to-wear and offshore production, which has been shrinking it for decades; the surviving core is fitting, repair, and alteration on garments a customer already owns.",
  "outlook": "The trade will keep shrinking on retail-economics grounds, not AI grounds, but the tailors who anchor on in-person fitting, bridal, and high-value repair will hold pricing power through the decade.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "NFPA 1851 already requires that repairs/alterations to firefighter turnout gear be done by the manufacturer or a verified Independent Service Provider, and the repair must not void the garment's certification. If more PPE and safety-apparel standards (flame-resistant workwear under NFPA 2113, ballistic vest carriers, medical drapes) adopt the same 'certified repair technician only, repair log signed' model, a slice of alteration work becomes a named-person-signs job rather than an unlicensed craft. Watch also for state cosmetology-style licensure proposals for bridal/formalwear shops after high-profile ruined-gown suits — no such bill exists now.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "trust_premium",
        "change": "Publicly funded repair subsidies that pay a registered human repairer: France's Bonus Réparation Textile (launched Oct 2023, Refashion-administered, €7–25 per repair paid only to labelled repairers) is the live template. If EU ecodesign/right-to-repair rules for textiles extend it, or a US state adopts a garment repair credit, paid demand routes specifically to a registered human shop. Separately, if 'Made in Italy' / couture-style rules tighten (Chambre Syndicale haute couture requires an atelier with a minimum number of full-time hand workers), brand-level premiums for verifiably human atelier labour deepen.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "Task-mix shift concentrating the role on irreplaceable-garment calls: museum/archival costume conservation and heirloom restoration, where the cutter decides what is reversible and personally signs a treatment record (AIC conservation-practice norms). If insurers of high-value wardrobes and bridal contracts start requiring documented pre-alteration assessment before payout, the fit decision becomes an owned, recorded call rather than a shop-floor judgement.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Genuine two-tier structure: the drafting/grading/measurement-prediction tier is being absorbed by CAD and body-scan sizing, leaving fitting on a live body, limp-fabric handling, and repair diagnosis. As the front end is automated away, the residual job is almost entirely the tier robotics has not solved, so measured resistance can hold or rise even as headcount falls.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 2
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "Embodiment is already at 18 and has no headroom. The binding constraint on this occupation is volume, not capability: cheap ready-to-wear has shrunk it for decades and every lever above raises resistance per surviving job without adding jobs. A high score here can coexist with continued contraction."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 20440,
        "wage": 28600
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 21150,
        "wage": 31000
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 24110,
        "wage": 31520
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 20860,
        "wage": 32640
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 17270,
        "wage": 31420
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 16870,
        "wage": 34280
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 14950,
        "wage": 36650
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 16290,
        "wage": 40860
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 13920,
        "wage": 41640
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": -31.9,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}