{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/tax-preparers/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Tax Preparers", "soc_code": "13-2082", "category": "Business", "us_employment": 76480, "median_annual_wage": 54920 }, "verdict": "COOKED", "risk_resistance": 26, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 4, "embodiment": 2, "liability_shield": 6, "trust_premium": 8, "judgment_accountability": 6 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "A 1040 with a W-2, a mortgage interest 1098 and a child tax credit is a data-entry job that TurboTax has done unassisted for two decades, and OCR now pulls the boxes off a photographed 1099-NEC without you typing them — that puts the core at 4, not 10, because the residual human work is asking the client the right intake questions, not producing the return.", "embodiment": "The whole job runs from a desk with a scanner, a laptop and a client across the table or on a Zoom call; the only physical acts are handling paper receipts and shoeboxes during filing season, which is why this sits at 2 rather than 0.", "liability_shield": "A PTIN costs a fee and requires no exam outside Oregon and California, and while §6694 preparer penalties and Circular 230 sanctions are real personal exposure, the taxpayer signs the return and owns the tax — that gap between 'penalizable' and 'licensed gatekeeper' is what puts this at 6 instead of an EA's 13+.", "trust_premium": "Repeat seasonal clients do come back to the same person year after year and refer family, but most of that loyalty is convenience and price at a storefront or a small shop rather than an irreplaceable advisory bond, and clients switch to a $59 online option without much grief — hence 8 rather than 14.", "judgment_accountability": "Most calls are bounded by the code and the software's diagnostics: filing status, dependency tests, standard versus itemized, whether a Schedule C expense is ordinary and necessary; genuinely contestable positions — basis reconstruction, hobby-loss, worker classification — usually get handed up to a CPA or EA, which keeps this at 6." }, "rationale": "The core of the job — transcribing W-2s, 1099s and receipts into tax software, picking the right forms and schedules, checking arithmetic, and e-filing — is exactly the structured document-to-form work that AI and consumer tax software already do at usable quality. A signing preparer needs a PTIN and carries penalty exposure, but PTIN registration is not a competency license, so the shield is thin compared to CPAs or Enrolled Agents. What holds is the anxious client with a messy situation — gig income, rental property, a divorce, an IRS letter — who wants a person to explain it and sign their name to it.", "outlook": "Storefront and seasonal preparation volume keeps shrinking as filing software absorbs simple returns; the surviving workers are credentialed representatives handling complex situations and IRS disputes year-round.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "IRS revival of mandatory preparer competency testing and continuing education for unenrolled preparers — the Registered Tax Return Preparer regime struck down in Loving v. IRS (2014) — via the Taxpayer Protection and Preparer Proficiency Act style bill granting Treasury explicit authority. That converts PTIN registration into an actual license with revocable standing to sign returns.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 6 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "State-level preparer licensing spreading beyond Oregon, California (CTEC), Maryland and New York — e.g. a new state adopting Oregon-style licensed preparer exams, plus IRS rules requiring a licensed human signature and Circular 230 diligence attestation on returns prepared with AI assistance.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Task-mix shift: as W-2/1099 transcription and form selection are absorbed by software, the surviving billable work is genuinely two-tier — IRS notice response, audit representation, reasonable-cause penalty abatement, basis reconstruction, worker-classification and Schedule C substantiation calls. Preparers who move into representation work (which requires EA/CPA status for full practice rights) own consequential ambiguous calls.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Same two-tier shift raises task_resistance modestly: what remains is undocumented cash income, cost-basis reconstruction from missing records, multistate residency disputes, and reconciling client accounts of events that contradict the paperwork — resistant because the input is unreliable human testimony, not documents.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "IRS penalty exposure for AI-generated returns making taxpayers (or lenders/immigration filings requiring a signed preparer) demand a named human signer; also state consumer-protection actions against AI-only filing services, of the kind FTC brought against Intuit's 'free filing' claims, pushing buyers toward identified preparers.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 } ], "ceiling_note": "Even with federal preparer licensing restored, the ceiling is low: the licensed tier is largely EAs and CPAs, and competency testing would likely thin the unenrolled ranks rather than protect them. Volume seasonal transcription work does not come back." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 68720, "wage": 38730 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 68090, "wage": 39390 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 66670, "wage": 43080 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 62600, "wage": 44300 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 83190, "wage": 46290 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 82370, "wage": 48250 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 81650, "wage": 49010 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 73570, "wage": 50560 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 76480, "wage": 54920 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": 11.3, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "accountants-and-auditors", "title": "Accountants and Auditors", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 42, "median_wage": 83680, "overlap": 80, "skills_to_close": [ "Systems Evaluation", "Management of Personnel Resources", "Operations Monitoring", "Speaking" ] }, { "slug": "loan-officers", "title": "Loan Officers", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 37, "median_wage": 76690, "overlap": 77, "skills_to_close": [ "Judgment and Decision Making", "Speaking", "Operations Monitoring", "Management of Personnel Resources" ] }, { "slug": "credit-counselors", "title": "Credit Counselors", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 39, "median_wage": 52230, "overlap": 73, "skills_to_close": [ "Systems Evaluation", "Speaking", "Persuasion", "Negotiation" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }