{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/textile-winding-twisting-and-drawing-out-machine-setters-operators-and-tenders/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Textile Winding, Twisting, and Drawing Out Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders",
    "soc_code": "51-6064",
    "category": "Production",
    "us_employment": 22020,
    "median_annual_wage": 38670
  },
  "verdict": "COOKED",
  "risk_resistance": 28,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 10,
    "embodiment": 11,
    "liability_shield": 1,
    "trust_premium": 2,
    "judgment_accountability": 4
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Automatic winders with electronic yarn clearers and splicers already do the core end-joining and package-building unattended, and robotic doffers handle bobbin change on new lines — what keeps this at 10 rather than 4 is that a tender still creels heavy roving, clears wrapped-around-roller jams by hand, sets tension and traverse for an unfamiliar count, and catches slubs the clearer's settings were never tuned for.",
    "embodiment": "You are on your feet the whole shift walking a machine alley in lint, noise, and heat, reaching into moving frames to piece up ends — real physical work, but it is one fixed building, known machine geometry, and a floor plan that never changes, which is why this sits at 11 and not with linemen and roofers at 17.",
    "liability_shield": "There is no state licence, no board, no certificate that legally has to exist before you touch a twister — the mill's OSHA lockout/tagout and machine-guard training is a condition of employment, not a credential you own or that anyone would have to replace.",
    "trust_premium": "The customer buys yarn by count, twist, and defect rate off a lab test; nobody downstream in the knitting or weaving plant knows or asks which operator built the package, so no relationship survives past the shipping dock.",
    "judgment_accountability": "Speed, tension, twist multiplier, and package density come off a style card set by the process engineer, and the decision that is actually yours is when to stop the frame and call maintenance — a real call with waste consequences, but bounded by written procedure, which is what puts it at 4 rather than in the discretion band."
  },
  "rationale": "The work is threading yarn, splicing broken ends, doffing full bobbins, and watching machines for defects inside a controlled, repeatable mill environment — exactly the profile modern automatic winders, robotic doffers, and machine-vision defect detection are built to eliminate. Language AI is not the threat here; capital equipment is, and the industry has been shedding these jobs for decades through consolidation and offshoring. The hands are still needed for splicing, jam clearing, and maintenance today, which is the only real buffer.",
  "outlook": "Employment keeps shrinking as remaining US mills invest in automatic winding and robotic doffing; the survivors are setters and machine mechanics, not tenders.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Task-mix shift within the mill: as automatic winders with splicers and robotic doffers take the routine tending tier, the surviving headcount is the person who sets up and changes over machines for new yarn counts, diagnoses recurring end-breaks to a specific traveler/tension/humidity cause, and clears novel jams. This is already visible in US mills where 'operator' postings have become 'setter/technician' postings requiring PLC and mechanical troubleshooting. Raises task_resistance only for the remaining fraction of the workforce, not the count of jobs.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "embodiment",
        "change": "Product-mix shift toward high-value technical and specialty yarns — aramid, carbon, glass, conductive filament for defense and aerospace textiles — run in short lots on older or modified machines where automatic splicing is unreliable and changeovers are frequent. Berry Amendment and DFARS domestic-sourcing demand for US-made technical textiles is the visible driver.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "If reshored technical-textile plants push lot-level quality accountability down to the machine setter — signed setup sheets and first-article yarn checks tied to AS9100/ISO 9001 traceability for aerospace or ballistic end use — the role owns a consequential call (release or scrap a lot) rather than just tending. Watch for mills adopting operator-signed first-piece inspection under customer source-inspection requirements.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "No plausible route to liability_shield or trust_premium: no license attaches to yarn winding and no buyer of yarn pays a premium for human-tended winding. Even with every lever above, the realistic ceiling is roughly the high 30s, and it applies to a smaller surviving workforce — the levers raise the resistance of the remaining job, not the number of jobs. Capital equipment cost, not AI capability, sets the pace."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 30940,
        "wage": 28270
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 31650,
        "wage": 28920
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 31190,
        "wage": 29790
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 25480,
        "wage": 30890
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 22160,
        "wage": 30020
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 23830,
        "wage": 33720
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 23550,
        "wage": 35530
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 20600,
        "wage": 37660
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 22020,
        "wage": 38670
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": -28.8,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [
    {
      "slug": "laborers-and-freight-stock-and-material-movers-hand",
      "title": "Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand",
      "verdict": "EXPOSED",
      "risk_resistance": 39,
      "median_wage": 40240,
      "overlap": 81,
      "skills_to_close": []
    },
    {
      "slug": "paper-goods-machine-setters-operators-and-tenders",
      "title": "Paper Goods Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders",
      "verdict": "EXPOSED",
      "risk_resistance": 38,
      "median_wage": 50270,
      "overlap": 78,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Active Learning",
        "Persuasion",
        "Technology Design",
        "Time Management"
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "tire-repairers-and-changers",
      "title": "Tire Repairers and Changers",
      "verdict": "EXPOSED",
      "risk_resistance": 49,
      "median_wage": 37710,
      "overlap": 76,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Service Orientation",
        "Time Management"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}