{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/tire-builders/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Tire Builders", "soc_code": "51-9197", "category": "Production", "us_employment": 20770, "median_annual_wage": 57390 }, "verdict": "COOKED", "risk_resistance": 27, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 10, "embodiment": 11, "liability_shield": 1, "trust_premium": 1, "judgment_accountability": 4 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "At 10 the split is real but lopsided: drum loading, ply splicing, stitching and count logging are already done by automated builders in new plants, while hand-finishing odd sizes, retread and specialty/OTR work, plus catching a blister or off-center bead by feel before the tire goes to cure, are the parts still holding a human on the line — that's mixed, not resistant.", "embodiment": "An 11 reflects that you're lifting beads and ply stock, reaching into a rotating drum, and standing in heat and rubber dust all shift, but the work happens at a fixed station on a climate-monitored floor with the machine, stock racks and travel distances laid out by the plant engineer — nothing like the unpredictable footing of a road crew or a service call.", "liability_shield": "A 1 is honest: there's no state builder's licence, no personal certification that follows you between plants, and when a tire fails in the field the recall lands on the manufacturer under NHTSA/TREAD Act reporting, not on the name in the build-code — in-house training and lot traceability are quality controls, not a legal shield for you.", "trust_premium": "At 1 the customer never learns who built their tire; the brand, the DOT code and the warranty carry all the trust, and the buyer at the tire shop couldn't name a builder if asked.", "judgment_accountability": "A 4 credits the real calls you make — scrapping a green tire, flagging a splice that's running open, stopping the machine when stock tracks off — but those decisions run against posted specs, gauge tolerances and a QC escalation path, with the plant's process engineers owning anything ambiguous." }, "rationale": "Tire building is machine-tending on a controlled factory floor: loading beads and plies onto a drum, tending an assembly machine, trimming and stitching, inspecting green tires for blisters and misalignment, and logging counts. The threat here isn't language AI — it's dedicated automation, since a fixed-position, repeatable assembly step is exactly what capital-intensive tire plants have been designing humans out of for two decades, and new plants come online with far fewer builder positions per line. The physical handling and defect-eye keep the job from being pure code, and union contracts slow the pace, but the task set itself offers little that resists a purpose-built machine.", "outlook": "Expect continued headcount decline as plants retool with automated building machines; the survivors in these plants will be maintenance techs and quality specialists, not builders.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Task-mix shift in retreading/specialty segments: if commodity passenger-tire building fully converts to automated drums, the surviving builder headcount concentrates in low-volume, frequent-changeover work — retread/OTR/agricultural and racing tires, plus prototype builds in R&D tire rooms (e.g. hand-built Goodyear NASCAR and Michelin motorsport tires) where tooling amortization never pencils out. The remaining role is setup, hand ply lay-up and defect judgment rather than cycle-tending.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "embodiment", "change": "If plant investment continues shifting to retread and off-the-road/giant tire building — 63-inch mining tires and OTR retreads are still substantially manual because of component mass, curvature and irregular casing geometry — the surviving job is unpredictable-geometry handling on used casings rather than fixed-drum work. Watch OTR retread capacity announcements (Bridgestone, Titan, Kal Tire mining retread plants).", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "If FMVSS 139 / NHTSA recall exposure pushes plants to formalize a named human sign-off on green-tire disposition — a builder or build-cell operator whose employee stamp is the traceability record for scrap-vs-pass decisions on a casing (already partly present via barcode traceability mandated after the TREAD Act) — the role owns a consequential ambiguous call rather than logging counts.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 } ], "ceiling_note": "Even with every lever, this stays a mid-30s occupation at best: the ceiling is set by headcount, not score. Retread and specialty work can preserve the character of the job for a fraction of the 20,770 while high-volume plants continue coming online with fewer builder positions per line. There is no plausible trust premium — no tire buyer will ever pay extra for a human-built passenger tire outside a few motorsport contracts." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 21910, "wage": 40230 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 23920, "wage": 46630 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 20790, "wage": 46010 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 18820, "wage": 46270 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 17240, "wage": 47940 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 18360, "wage": 51650 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 20660, "wage": 54080 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 20970, "wage": 55580 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 20770, "wage": 57390 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -5.2, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "welders-cutters-solderers-and-brazers", "title": "Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 62, "median_wage": 53750, "overlap": 89, "skills_to_close": [ "Science", "Quality Control Analysis" ] }, { "slug": "refractory-materials-repairers-except-brickmasons", "title": "Refractory Materials Repairers, Except Brickmasons", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 65, "median_wage": 61290, "overlap": 79, "skills_to_close": [ "Repairing", "Equipment Maintenance", "Coordination", "Troubleshooting" ] }, { "slug": "loading-and-moving-machine-operators-underground-mining", "title": "Loading and Moving Machine Operators, Underground Mining", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 53, "median_wage": 74500, "overlap": 75, "skills_to_close": [ "Equipment Maintenance", "Coordination", "Repairing", "Troubleshooting" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }