{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/tool-and-die-makers/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Tool and Die Makers", "soc_code": "51-4111", "category": "Production", "us_employment": 56930, "median_annual_wage": 64050 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 54, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 14, "embodiment": 17, "liability_shield": 2, "trust_premium": 8, "judgment_accountability": 13 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "At 14 the split is roughly two-thirds bench and press-side work that resists digitisation — spotting a die with bluing, stoning a parting line, shimming and re-timing a progressive die between hits — against a third that CAM software and generative toolpathing already do better than a human at a terminal, which is why this isn't an 18.", "embodiment": "17 reflects work done at the surface grinder, EDM tank, and then on the customer's 400-ton press floor, where you're crawling into a die shoe, feeling for burrs and drag marks, and reworking steel that's still hot — uncontrolled enough to warrant near-top marks, short of 20 only because much of the cutting happens in an enclosed shop.", "liability_shield": "2 because nothing legally stops an employer from putting an unlicensed operator on your jobs — journeyman cards and NIMS credentials are pay-scale and hiring signals, not statutory gatekeepers, and no regulator requires a certified die maker's sign-off on a mold before it runs production.", "trust_premium": "8 is where a maker sits who has real standing with specific mold and stamping customers who ask for you by name after you fixed their flash problem, but the deliverable is a die that either runs to print or doesn't — the part gets inspected, not your relationship.", "judgment_accountability": "13 sits at the top of genuine discretion because you decide whether a die gets welded and re-cut or scrapped, where to add draw relief, and how much springback to compensate — calls worth six figures in tooling and downtime — but a toolroom lead or engineering has sign-off above you, which keeps it out of the 14-plus band." }, "rationale": "The core of this job — fitting, grinding, polishing, and hand-benching die components to a few thousandths, then troubleshooting a mold that's flashing or a stamping die that's galling on the press — is tactile, iterative physical work that no current robot does. What is automating is the upstream half: CAD interpretation, CAM toolpath generation, feed-and-speed selection, tolerance stack-up math, and inspection reporting, all of which AI plus modern CAM handles increasingly well. The real threat to this occupation isn't a robot toolmaker; it's fewer toolrooms, offshored tooling, and one experienced maker supervising more automated machining than before.", "outlook": "Employment keeps drifting down from offshoring and shop consolidation, but the remaining benchers and die troubleshooters will be scarce, older, and well paid — the shortage is of hands, not of toolpaths.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Task-mix shift: as CAM programming, tolerance stack-up, and CMM inspection reporting get absorbed by AI-assisted software, the residual job is the judgment tier — die tryout, spotting/blueing a mold, diagnosing galling and flash, hand-benching to fit, and root-cause on press. This tier is genuinely tactile and iterative; watch for job postings that drop 'CNC programming' from the requirements while keeping 'die tryout and troubleshooting'.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "embodiment", "change": "Reshoring of stamping and mold tooling under Section 232/301 tariff structures and IRA/CHIPS domestic-content rules would put more tryout and repair work physically in US toolrooms rather than offshoring the whole die; the repair/maintenance share of the work is the least robot-tractable part.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 2 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Formalized PPAP/AIAG-VDA process-sign-off practice in automotive tooling where a named tooling engineer or lead toolmaker signs die buy-off and capability (Cpk) acceptance, making the buy-off call attributable to a person rather than a supplier entity. Watch OEM supplier manuals (GM, Ford, Stellantis) for named-individual buy-off requirements.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Safety-critical tooling (airbag housings, aerospace forgings, Class A medical molds) sits under AS9100/ISO 13485 process validation; a route to a real shield would be an FAA or FDA requirement that tooling used for a validated process be qualified by a named, certified individual — analogous to NDT Level III certification under SNT-TC-1A, which already personally attributes sign-off.", "plausibility": "unlikely", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Narrow route only: prototype and short-run tooling for defense and aerospace primes where ITAR and DFARS 252.225-7009 specialty-metals rules require identifiable US persons doing the work — buyers pay for the cleared human toolroom, not the tooling per se.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 2 } ], "ceiling_note": "Even with every lever, this stays a shrinking-headcount occupation. None of the levers touch the actual threat: toolroom consolidation and one maker supervising more machines. A higher score here describes better-protected individual jobs, not more of them." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 73510, "wage": 52480 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 72700, "wage": 52750 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 70770, "wage": 53920 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 61190, "wage": 54760 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 63630, "wage": 57000 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 61730, "wage": 59800 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 58150, "wage": 61490 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 55130, "wage": 63180 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 56930, "wage": 64050 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -22.6, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "industrial-machinery-mechanics", "title": "Industrial Machinery Mechanics", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 67, "median_wage": 64520, "overlap": 84, "skills_to_close": [ "Repairing", "Equipment Maintenance", "Installation", "Troubleshooting" ] }, { "slug": "sheet-metal-workers", "title": "Sheet Metal Workers", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 67, "median_wage": 61800, "overlap": 78, "skills_to_close": [ "Installation", "Instructing", "Management of Personnel Resources", "Service Orientation" ] }, { "slug": "refractory-materials-repairers-except-brickmasons", "title": "Refractory Materials Repairers, Except Brickmasons", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 65, "median_wage": 61290, "overlap": 77, "skills_to_close": [ "Service Orientation" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }