{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/upholsterers/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Upholsterers", "soc_code": "51-6093", "category": "Production", "us_employment": 20140, "median_annual_wage": 46340 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 54, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 17, "embodiment": 17, "liability_shield": 1, "trust_premium": 10, "judgment_accountability": 9 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Pulling a hundred rusted tacks out of a horsehair-stuffed Victorian frame, eight-way hand-tying coil springs, and easing a welted cover over a curved arm so the seam lands straight are all done by feel on parts that never repeat — a 17 rather than 20 because the estimating, yardage math, and cut-plan layout that used to eat your mornings are now software.", "embodiment": "You work on the customer's furniture in the customer's dimensions — kneeling on a shop floor with a pneumatic stapler, hauling a sleeper sofa off a truck, doing on-site work in restaurants and boats and van interiors — so 17 reflects unmapped physical space, held back from 19 only because most of the day happens in your own shop rather than someone else's roofline or trench.", "liability_shield": "No state licenses upholsterers; the only regulatory hook is flammability labeling and used-bedding sterilization tagging in some states, which attaches to the shop, not to your name, so nothing legally requires that a person perform this work.", "trust_premium": "Reupholstering a client's grandmother's chair is repeat-and-referral work where they hand you an heirloom and trust your fabric advice, but the job is judged on the finished piece — a 10, not 15, because a customer who likes the price will use a shop they've never met.", "judgment_accountability": "You decide whether a frame is worth re-gluing or is scrap, how much yardage a 27-inch repeat really needs, and whether to rebuild the deck or patch it — real calls with real money on them, but a wrong one costs a redo and some fabric, not anyone's safety, which caps it at 9." }, "rationale": "Stripping old covers, retying springs, cutting and stretching fabric over irregular frames, and blind-stitching by feel are manual tasks that current robotics cannot touch — the material is floppy, the frames are non-standard, and every antique sofa is a one-off. What AI does erode is the surrounding business layer: quoting, fabric-yardage estimating, pattern layout, sketching design options for clients, and marketing. There is no license and no liability shield here, so the occupation's real long-run pressure comes from cheap replacement furniture and offshore production rather than from software.", "outlook": "The hands-on work stays human through 2035, but employment tracks the repair-versus-replace economics of furniture, so the survivors will be high-end restoration and specialty niches rather than general reupholstery shops.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Aircraft cabin upholstery already sits inside an FAA framework: replacement seat covers and cushions must meet 14 CFR 25.853 flammability burn testing and the work is signed off under an FAA Part 145 repair station or A&P certificate. If an upholsterer's book of business shifts toward aviation interiors, or if FAA burn-cert documentation requirements tighten for Part 135/91 refurb work, a named human is legally on the paperwork.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 7 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Automotive re-upholstery of seats containing seam-deployed side airbags: FMVSS 208/214 exposure plus insurer and OEM service-bulletin requirements that the tear-seam stitch pattern and thread spec be restored exactly. If state repair-shop licensing or an auto insurer's approved-shop program starts requiring a documented technician sign-off on airbag-seam seat work (as collision repair already requires for structural welds via I-CAR/OEM procedures), that creates personal accountability.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 5 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Flammability compliance labeling: California TB 117-2013 and the SB 1019 disclosure regime already require the person who reupholsters to attach a truthful flammability/chemical-content label. If enforcement of relabeling by the reupholsterer were actively pursued, or a federal CPSC upholstered-furniture flammability standard (long-pending under the Furniture Flammability rulemaking) landed with a certifier-of-record requirement, the label becomes a signed attestation.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Conservation-grade credentialing: American Institute for Conservation Professional Associate status, or the UK-style ICON accreditation for historic upholstery, being specified in museum, historic-house and National Trust-equivalent procurement. Buyers of period sofa restoration are already paying for a named hand and documented reversible technique, not a product.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Marine and yacht interiors plus high-end designer trade channels where the specifier's own reputation rides on a named workroom. If interior-design trade associations continue routing custom soft-goods through vetted named workrooms rather than commodity shops, the premium is attached to the person.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Two-tier split: if AI absorbs quoting, yardage, pattern layout and design rendering, what remains billable is the irreversible calls — whether a frame is joinable or must be rebuilt, whether original horsehair and webbing are retained or replaced, whether a client's chosen fabric will survive the shape. On one-off antiques these calls are unrecoverable if wrong, which is genuine consequential ambiguity.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 } ], "ceiling_note": "The binding constraint is demand, not capability. Even with every lever pulled, a 20,140-worker occupation losing volume to cheap flat-pack replacement furniture and offshore cut-and-sew does not get rescued by liability or trust scores; the aviation, marine, airbag-seam and conservation niches together are a small fraction of current employment, so the register score can rise for the people inside those niches while the occupation still shrinks." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 32500, "wage": 33660 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 32870, "wage": 34480 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 29420, "wage": 35130 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 26180, "wage": 36250 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 28020, "wage": 37420 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 26990, "wage": 39600 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 25740, "wage": 42730 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 20990, "wage": 46190 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 20140, "wage": 46340 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -38, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "refractory-materials-repairers-except-brickmasons", "title": "Refractory Materials Repairers, Except Brickmasons", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 65, "median_wage": 61290, "overlap": 85, "skills_to_close": [ "Equipment Maintenance", "Repairing", "Troubleshooting" ] }, { "slug": "automotive-body-and-related-repairers", "title": "Automotive Body and Related Repairers", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 65, "median_wage": 54890, "overlap": 76, "skills_to_close": [ "Installation", "Programming", "Repairing", "Troubleshooting" ] }, { "slug": "operating-engineers-and-other-construction-equipment-operators", "title": "Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 64, "median_wage": 59850, "overlap": 75, "skills_to_close": [ "Operation and Control", "Equipment Maintenance", "Troubleshooting" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }