{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/watch-and-clock-repairers/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Watch and Clock Repairers",
    "soc_code": "49-9064",
    "category": "Trades",
    "us_employment": 1310,
    "median_annual_wage": 67230
  },
  "verdict": "EXPOSED",
  "risk_resistance": 60,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 17,
    "embodiment": 17,
    "liability_shield": 2,
    "trust_premium": 13,
    "judgment_accountability": 11
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Poising a balance wheel on a staking set, bending a hairspring back to flat with tweezers under a loupe, and turning a replacement pivot on a Jacot tool are tasks where the tolerance is microns and the workpiece is unique to that caliber — 17 rather than 20 only because catalog identification, movement dating, and quoting are drifting to software.",
    "embodiment": "The work is entirely in the hands: pegging out jewel holes, listening to a beat rate, feeling end-shake in a train bridge, and every bench is a one-off environment of non-standard vintage parts rather than a fixtured assembly line — held below 19 because it's a stationary indoor bench, not a job site, so the physical variability is in the object, not the surroundings.",
    "liability_shield": "No state licenses watchmakers; WOSTEP, SAWTA or AWCI CW21 certification opens doors at Rolex or Swatch service centers but nothing in law stops an uncertified person from opening a caseback, and the shop's liability for a damaged heirloom runs through business insurance, not a personal license.",
    "trust_premium": "Customers hand over a grandfather's Hamilton or a $30k Patek to a specific named bench worker they were referred to, and repeat service intervals every 5-7 years make it a decades-long relationship — short of 17+ because factory-authorized centers and mail-in depots do capture volume anonymously under a brand name.",
    "judgment_accountability": "Deciding whether to replace an original mainspring or preserve it, whether refinishing a dial destroys collector value, and when a worn barrel arbor is repairable versus scrap are irreversible calls made without the owner watching — but they run on established restoration convention and a quoted estimate, not open-ended high-stakes ambiguity."
  },
  "rationale": "Disassembling a mechanical movement, cleaning and lubricating jewels, adjusting hairsprings, and fabricating or fitting replacement parts for a 1920s clock are micro-manual tasks no robot performs at commercial cost, and the diagnosis happens through touch, sound, and timing-machine traces rather than text. The genuine AI exposure is thin and peripheral — parts lookup, movement identification, repair-cost estimating, and customer correspondence. What holds this occupation back is not AI but market size: 1,310 jobs, quartz and smartwatch replacement culture, and demand concentrated in luxury service and heirloom restoration where the named craftsperson is part of what the customer buys.",
  "outlook": "The occupation stays small and continues to shrink with quartz and smartwatch churn, but the skilled mechanical and antique restoration tier remains understaffed and well-paid because far fewer people are entering the trade than leaving it.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "trust_premium",
        "change": "Formal certification tiers that customers actually shop for — AWCI's Certified Master Watchmaker (CMW21) or WOSTEP certification becoming a stated requirement in luxury brand authorized-service networks (Rolex, Patek, Omega already restrict parts supply to certified independents). If brands widen parts access conditional on named certified watchmakers, and auction houses (Christie's, Phillips) continue requiring documented service history by a named restorer for provenance, the named-human premium hardens.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "Restoration-ethics standards analogous to conservation practice — a written AWCI or NAWCC standard on what counts as reversible intervention versus value-destroying replacement, cited in insurance appraisals and auction condition reports, making the repairer's originality/replacement calls a documented, attributable decision on six-figure objects.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Insurer-driven appraisal signature: high-value horological insurance riders (Chubb, Jewelers Mutual) requiring a named certified watchmaker's signed condition and valuation statement, with errors-and-omissions exposure attached, rather than an unsigned shop estimate.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Automation of the peripheral tier is largely already the exposure — if parts lookup, movement ID from photos, and estimating fully move to vendor software, the residual job is bench work and restoration judgment only, which raises the share of the day AI cannot touch.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 2
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "Score is already near the practical ceiling on the capability dimensions; the binding constraint is a 1,310-job market shrinking with quartz and smartwatch culture, and no lever here addresses headcount. A higher score would describe a more defensible occupation, not a larger one."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 2780,
        "wage": 42520
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 2430,
        "wage": 45290
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 1970,
        "wage": 44250
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 1880,
        "wage": 48370
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 1880,
        "wage": 58140
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 1300,
        "wage": 60690
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 1310,
        "wage": 67230
      }
    ],
    "from": 2019,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": -52.9,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": false
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}