{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/welding-soldering-and-brazing-machine-setters-operators-and-tenders/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Welding, Soldering, and Brazing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders", "soc_code": "51-4122", "category": "Production", "us_employment": 31600, "median_annual_wage": 47920 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 37, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 8, "embodiment": 15, "liability_shield": 5, "trust_premium": 3, "judgment_accountability": 6 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Loading fixtures, hitting cycle start, watching for burn-through and gauging weld bead against a go/no-go sample are the daily core, and all four are already handled in newer cells by part-present sensors, adaptive current control and post-weld vision inspection — the 8 rather than 4 reflects the setup tier that survives: dialing in wire feed and gas flow on a new part number, shimming a fixture that's drifted, and diagnosing why the tip keeps burning back.", "embodiment": "You are inside the guarding to change contact tips, clear spatter off the nozzle, re-clamp a warped weldment and reach into a cell that runs hot, bright and full of fume — 15 not 19 because the cell floor, the fixture and the part geometry are engineered and repeatable, unlike a structural welder working off a beam in weather.", "liability_shield": "No state licence gates machine welding; a plant may want an AWS D1.1 or D17.1 procedure qualification or a Section IX operator qualification for pressure work, and that certifies the welding procedure and your ability to run it — it doesn't make you the person a failure lands on, which is the QC inspector and the engineer who wrote the WPS.", "trust_premium": "The customer receives a bracket or an exhaust assembly with a part number on it, never your name; the only relationship is with your shift lead and the guy on the next operation who notices when your welds start needing grinding.", "judgment_accountability": "Decisions are bounded by the WPS, the travel-speed and amperage window on the setup sheet, and the reject criteria on the visual-inspection card — you decide whether a bead undercuts badly enough to scrap and when to call maintenance, real calls but ones with a written answer and a supervisor to escalate to." }, "rationale": "This job already sits inside the automation it tends: the machine does the weld, and the operator loads parts, sets parameters, watches the arc, and pulls bad pieces. Modern cells with vision-guided seam tracking, adaptive parameter control, and automated loaders erode the tending and monitoring share fast, while the setup, fixturing, and troubleshooting tier — physically present, hands in the cell — holds up better. Employment is already small (31,600) and concentrated in high-volume manufacturing, where capital spending on robotics is exactly what shrinks this title.", "outlook": "Expect continued slow contraction as welding cells get more self-correcting, with the remaining jobs concentrating in setup, robot programming, and weld inspection rather than machine tending.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Code-driven welder/operator qualification tied to a named person: ASME Section IX and AWS D1.1 already require a qualified welding operator and a signed WPS/PQR record for pressure vessels, structural steel, and nuclear work. If AWS/ASME tighten machine-welding rules so that an AWS Certified Welding Inspector or CWI-supervised operator must personally sign each production run's parameter sheet and destructive-test coupon — rather than accepting machine data logs — the sign-off attaches to a human. Watch ASME BPV Section IX ballot items on automated/adaptive-parameter welding and NRC 10 CFR 50 App. B supplier audits.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 5 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Genuine two-tier job: if the loading/tending/visual-inspection tier is absorbed by cobot loaders and in-process vision, the surviving title is fixture design, distortion control, weld-defect root-cause on new alloys (aluminum, high-strength steel in EV battery trays), and requalifying WPS after any parameter change. Task-mix shift alone raises resistance without any regulatory move.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "embodiment", "change": "Migration of the remaining work toward non-repeatable settings — shipyard modules, aerospace repair, field pipeline tie-ins where the cell must be rigged in place. Submerged-arc and orbital equipment set up on-site in confined or overhead positions resists fixturing automation more than a factory cell does.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Authority to stop the line on a suspected weld defect, formalized in contract: USW and IAM agreements at some fabricators already carry quality-hold language. If defect-disposition authority (scrap/rework/accept) is explicitly assigned to the operator rather than a quality engineer or the machine's own accept/reject threshold, the consequential call is owned.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 } ], "ceiling_note": "Trust premium has no realistic route — buyers of welded assemblies specify code compliance and NDT results, never a human hand. And any liability gain lands on the certified-inspector tier, which is a different, smaller title; the 51-4122 headcount can shrink even as the surviving role scores higher." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 38750, "wage": 37190 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 35080, "wage": 37670 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 35110, "wage": 38310 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 33150, "wage": 39410 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 29980, "wage": 38580 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 30940, "wage": 44920 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 33020, "wage": 45350 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 36290, "wage": 47060 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 31600, "wage": 47920 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -18.5, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "welders-cutters-solderers-and-brazers", "title": "Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 62, "median_wage": 53750, "overlap": 85, "skills_to_close": [ "Quality Control Analysis" ] }, { "slug": "refractory-materials-repairers-except-brickmasons", "title": "Refractory Materials Repairers, Except Brickmasons", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 65, "median_wage": 61290, "overlap": 80, "skills_to_close": [ "Repairing", "Troubleshooting", "Equipment Maintenance", "Equipment Selection" ] }, { "slug": "furniture-finishers", "title": "Furniture Finishers", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 52, "median_wage": 44540, "overlap": 77, "skills_to_close": [ "Service Orientation", "Instructing", "Quality Control Analysis", "Learning Strategies" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }