{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/wellhead-pumpers/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Wellhead Pumpers", "soc_code": "53-7073", "category": "Transportation", "us_employment": 17990, "median_annual_wage": 69960 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 44, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 12, "embodiment": 17, "liability_shield": 3, "trust_premium": 4, "judgment_accountability": 8 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "At 12 rather than 16, roughly half a pumper's shift — the tank gauging, chart changing, run-ticket writing, daily production entry and spotting a well that's off its curve — is already being handled by level sensors, coriolis meters and SCADA alarms on newer pads, while the wrench work (pulling and repacking a stuffing box, hot-oiling a paraffined tubing string, resetting a pumping unit's counterbalance) still needs a person on the lease.", "embodiment": "A 17 reflects that the work is performed outdoors on unimproved lease roads in whatever the weather does, climbing tank stairs to gauge with a steel tape, opening separators and treaters, working around H2S, live electrical on unit motors and pressurized flowlines — none of it in a controlled or repeatable setting, which is what keeps it out of the 13-14 range and short of 19 only because the pumper also spends real time in a truck cab and on a tablet.", "liability_shield": "A 3 is right because no state licences a wellhead pumper — you may hold H2S awareness, SafeLandUSA or a CDL for hauling, but the operator's engineering staff and the well's designated person of record carry the regulatory obligation to the state commission, and a bad gauge or a missed leak becomes the company's violation, not yours.", "trust_premium": "At 4, the gauge sheet that reaches the production office is anonymous data — the operator cares that the barrels reconcile, not which pumper wrote them — and the only relationships with any pull are the surface-owner rancher whose gate you close and the pumper who covers your days off.", "judgment_accountability": "An 8 fits calls that are real but bounded: deciding whether a knocking gearbox runs until morning or gets shut in now, whether a fluid-level shot means the well is pumped off or the pump is worn, when to call out a pulling unit — genuine discretion, but escalated to a foreman or engineer before anything expensive happens, which keeps it out of the mid-teens." }, "rationale": "The hands-on half of this job — driving lease roads, gauging tanks, changing pump packing, clearing paraffin, adjusting chokes and rod pumps, responding to a down well at 2am — is nowhere near automatable. The threat isn't AI replacing the pumper; it's SCADA, remote automation and AI-assisted production surveillance shrinking the number of pumpers needed per route, since the daily gauge sheets, run tickets, production reports and anomaly-spotting are exactly what sensors plus software now do. Expect fewer, more technical pumpers covering far bigger routes rather than the role disappearing.", "outlook": "Wells keep needing someone with hands and a truck, but remote monitoring will keep stretching routes — expect headcount to drift down while the surviving jobs look more like lift-optimization and instrumentation techs.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Task-mix shift is genuine here: once SCADA and AI surveillance absorb gauge sheets, run tickets and anomaly flagging, what remains on the route is rod-pump failure diagnosis, paraffin/scale intervention, chemical program tuning, choke and plunger-lift optimization, and freeze-offs — the judgment tier. A route where the pumper is dispatched by exception rather than driving a fixed circuit raises the non-automatable share of the day even as headcount falls.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Custody-transfer measurement accountability: if BLM Onshore Order 4/5 successors or state conservation rules (e.g. Texas RRC, NM OCD) require a named, trained gauger to attest to run tickets and LACT proving records — with personal signature on allocation and royalty-relevant volumes rather than an automated report — the signing role attaches to a person.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "EPA OOOOb/OOOOc and state methane rules (Colorado ECMC, New Mexico) already mandate periodic on-site AVO and leak inspections with recordkeeping certified by a trained individual; if the certifying-inspector requirement is tightened to a licensed or board-registered individual whose attestation carries enforcement exposure, this rises further.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 2 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "If operators formalize the pumper as the designated on-site person with authority to shut in a well, vent, or stop production under an SEMS/PSM-style management system — with that authority written into the safety case and audited — the role owns consequential calls under ambiguity rather than executing dispatch instructions.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Route consolidation itself concentrates decision weight: a pumper covering 200 wells by exception is making triage and shut-in calls with incomplete telemetry and real spill/blowout consequences, where a 40-well fixed-circuit pumper was following a checklist.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 2 } ], "ceiling_note": "No realistic route to a trust premium — the buyer is an operator optimizing lease operating expense per barrel, and no one pays extra for a human pumper. Embodiment is already near ceiling and cannot rise. The dominant force remains headcount compression per route; higher per-worker scores coexist with fewer workers." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 11200, "wage": 52260 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 13280, "wage": 53490 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 12970, "wage": 55040 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 12050, "wage": 60720 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 16040, "wage": 63740 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 14550, "wage": 63280 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 18230, "wage": 71830 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 17350, "wage": 70010 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 17990, "wage": 69960 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": 60.6, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "crane-and-tower-operators", "title": "Crane and Tower Operators", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 67, "median_wage": 68080, "overlap": 85, "skills_to_close": [ "Active Learning", "Coordination", "Operations Analysis" ] }, { "slug": "stationary-engineers-and-boiler-operators", "title": "Stationary Engineers and Boiler Operators", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 64, "median_wage": 78620, "overlap": 79, "skills_to_close": [ "Science", "Systems Evaluation", "Coordination", "Installation" ] }, { "slug": "mobile-heavy-equipment-mechanics-except-engines", "title": "Mobile Heavy Equipment Mechanics, Except Engines", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 67, "median_wage": 65510, "overlap": 74, "skills_to_close": [ "Equipment Selection", "Installation", "Quality Control Analysis", "Repairing" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }