{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/woodworkers-all-other/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Woodworkers, All Other",
    "soc_code": "51-7099",
    "category": "Production",
    "us_employment": 5490,
    "median_annual_wage": 44530
  },
  "verdict": "EXPOSED",
  "risk_resistance": 44,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 13,
    "embodiment": 16,
    "liability_shield": 2,
    "trust_premium": 6,
    "judgment_accountability": 7
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "At 13 the split is real: nesting software and a 5-axis CNC will chew through the sheet-goods layout, dadoes and repeat profiles you now do on the table saw and shaper, but reading tearout risk in figured maple, shimming a warped panel flat, coping a joint that came out proud, and re-setting a jig for a one-off replacement part still take a person at the bench — that keeps it above the mixed midpoint without reaching the untouchable band.",
    "embodiment": "16 reflects that nothing in this job happens away from the material — you are muscling 4x8 sheets and rough lumber onto machine tables, standing at a spraying or sanding station in dust and noise, feeling for glue squeeze-out and flush surfaces by hand, and working around unguarded blades and cutterheads; it stops short of 20 only because it is a shop floor you control rather than a roof, trench or customer's crawlspace.",
    "liability_shield": "2 is right because no state licenses woodworkers: you may hold an OSHA 10 card or forklift and lockout/tagout training, but those are employer requirements, and when a cabinet fails or a dimension is out of tolerance the shop's warranty and the contractor's specification absorb it, not your personal credential.",
    "trust_premium": "A 6 fits the shop hand whose output leaves on a truck under the company's name — but the score is not lower because in a 6-person custom shop the owner and repeat clients ask for the person who did last year's stair parts or knows how to match an existing finish, so some of the work follows you rather than the shop.",
    "judgment_accountability": "7 acknowledges you make live calls the cut list doesn't cover — reject this board for a knot near a joint line, flip it for grain match, adjust feed rate when the router starts burning, decide a glue-up is close enough to sand out — but you are working to prints, tolerances and a foreman's sign-off, so the ambiguous consequential decisions about design, structure and price are made above you."
  },
  "rationale": "This catch-all woodworking title covers shop hands who set up and run saws, routers, sanders and joinery equipment, read cut lists and blueprints, fit and glue assemblies, and inspect for grain defects and tolerance — work language models cannot touch directly. The real pressure is not chatbots but CNC machining centers, automated nesting/optimization software, and panel-processing lines that absorb the layout, cutting, and repetitive shaping tasks, shrinking headcount per unit of output. What persists is hand-fitting, defect judgment on natural material, custom one-off and repair work, and machine setup/troubleshooting in small shops where CNC capital doesn't pencil out.",
  "outlook": "Employment in this small residual category keeps drifting down as CNC and panel lines consolidate volume work, while custom, restoration, and installation-adjacent woodworkers hold steady or command higher rates.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Task-mix shift is real here: as CNC nesting and panel lines absorb cut lists and repetitive shaping, the residual job concentrates on hand-fitting, grain/defect calls on non-uniform stock, and setup/troubleshooting of finicky tooling. Watch for shop job postings retitled toward 'CNC setup/finish carpenter' with cut-list work dropped from the duty list.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 2
      },
      {
        "dimension": "embodiment",
        "change": "Growth in the repair/restoration and retrofit share of work (historic millwork replication, furniture repair, architectural salvage) which is inherently one-off, in-situ, and unmeasurable in advance — supported by expanded Historic Tax Credit or state preservation grant programs requiring in-kind wood replication.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 2
      },
      {
        "dimension": "trust_premium",
        "change": "Continued expansion of documented-provenance buying: 'handmade' claims policed the way FTC 'Made in USA' is, or a certification mark (e.g., a Furniture Society or guild 'hand-built' label) that lets makers charge for verified human construction. Bespoke furniture and instrument markets already sustain this; the lever is whether the label becomes checkable rather than marketing.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "Shops that move into structural/architectural work take on real sign-off: glue-lam and engineered timber fabrication under APA/AITC quality-control programs requires a named qualified person to accept or reject laminations and bondline tests. A woodworker whose defect calls are the record for a load-bearing component owns a consequential call.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Narrow route only: fire-rated door and assembly fabrication under NFPA 80 / UL labeling requires an authorized fabricator and traceable inspection records; if labeling schemes tighten to require an individually qualified inspector rather than a facility license, a small slice of this SOC gains a named signer. This covers a minority of shops and would not lift the occupation broadly.",
        "plausibility": "unlikely",
        "would_add": 2
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "The binding constraint is capital, not capability or law — CNC and panel-processing lines cut headcount per unit whether or not any human judgment persists. Levers here protect the character of the remaining work, not its volume; there is no licensure body for woodworking and none is being organized."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 6490,
        "wage": 30680
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 5970,
        "wage": 31170
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 6700,
        "wage": 33110
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 7300,
        "wage": 33630
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 7910,
        "wage": 35610
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 9120,
        "wage": 35370
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 7830,
        "wage": 37760
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 6590,
        "wage": 41220
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 5490,
        "wage": 44530
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": -15.4,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}