{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/woodworking-machine-setters-operators-and-tenders-except-sawing/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Woodworking Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Except Sawing", "soc_code": "51-7042", "category": "Production", "us_employment": 61420, "median_annual_wage": 43380 }, "verdict": "COOKED", "risk_resistance": 31, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 9, "embodiment": 14, "liability_shield": 1, "trust_premium": 2, "judgment_accountability": 5 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Setting a shaper fence, dialing feed rates, and running parts to a cut list is already what a CNC router with a nested-based toolpath does unattended overnight — the 9 rather than a 4 is because reading grain direction on warped or knotty hardwood, shimming a jig that's drifting, and hand-sanding tearout off a profile still stop the machine from running lights-out.", "embodiment": "You are standing at the machine all shift — hauling sheet goods and rough lumber onto the table, changing router bits and shaper cutters, clearing chip buildup, feeling for burn marks and snipe — and a woodshop with sawdust, moisture-variable stock, and pinch points is nothing like a clean cell, which is what puts this at 14 rather than the 8 of a bench assembler.", "liability_shield": "There is no state license, no board, no stamp on the part: OSHA machine-guarding rules bind the employer, not you, and if a door stile comes out undersized the shop eats the scrap — the 1 rather than 0 reflects only in-house safety and machine-specific sign-offs that carry no legal weight outside the plant.", "trust_premium": "The dining table or cabinet door leaves the shop with a brand or a builder's name on it, never yours; the customer never learns which operator ran the moulder, and buyers reorder on price, lead time, and tolerance, not on you.", "judgment_accountability": "The engineering drawing, cut list, and tooling sheet arrive already specified, and your calls — bump the feed to kill chatter, flip a board for better face, pull a part that's out of tolerance — are corrections inside a fixed spec rather than decisions about what gets made, which is a 5 and not a 2 only because a bad grain call or missed setup can scrap an expensive run of hardwood." }, "rationale": "The core loop — load stock, set fences and feed rates, run a shaper/router/sander, inspect dimensions against a spec, log counts — is exactly what CNC machining centers and automated nesting lines were built to absorb, and the threat here is factory automation plus AI-generated toolpaths rather than chatbots. Real embodiment protects part of the day: jigs, fixtures, tool changes, sanding out defects, and wrestling warped or knotty stock still need hands in a shop. But there is no license, no signature, no customer relationship, and most decisions are executing a cut list someone else wrote.", "outlook": "Employment keeps sliding as nesting CNCs and automated sanding lines consolidate multi-machine shops, with the surviving jobs concentrated in setup, tooling, maintenance, and custom millwork.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Task-mix shift within the shop: as nested-panel and repeat-run work migrates to CNC cells, the residual human role concentrates on solid-hardwood and one-off architectural millwork — reading grain and figure, matching color across a job, compensating for wood movement and warp, hand-setting shaper knives for custom profiles. This tier genuinely resists automation because the workpiece is non-uniform and the spec is often 'match this existing molding'. Watch for job postings shifting from 'machine tender' to 'millwork machinist / custom profile setup'.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "embodiment", "change": "If the surviving work is dominated by large, heavy, warped solid stock and short-run custom setups (fixture fabrication, knife grinding and setting, tool changes on manual shapers, hand-sanding defect rework), the physical unpredictability per hour rises even as headcount falls. Also: on-site millwork fitting and finish work in occupied buildings, which no gantry serves.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Consolidation of setter and programmer roles: where a shop cannot afford separate CAM programmers, the operator owns toolpath edits, feed/speed calls, scrap-vs-rework decisions on expensive figured stock, and first-article approval. If the shop's quality system formally designates the setter as first-article inspector signing off before production release (common under ISO 9001 / AWI Quality Certification Program for architectural woodwork), the role owns a consequential call.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Only narrow route: bespoke and historic-restoration millwork where the buyer specifically contracts hand-set profiles or period-correct tooling — e.g. work under Secretary of the Interior's Standards for historic rehabilitation, or high-end furniture makers marketing hand-worked joinery. This applies to a small slice of the 61k and does not lift the occupation broadly.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 2 } ], "ceiling_note": "Realistic ceiling is low-to-mid 40s. There is no licensing body for woodworking machine operation and no plausible bill creating one, so liability_shield has no route at all — omitted deliberately. Every lever here raises the score of the job that remains while the number of such jobs falls; task-mix shift is not employment protection." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 79650, "wage": 29110 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 78980, "wage": 29730 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 78850, "wage": 30990 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 75160, "wage": 32160 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 67210, "wage": 36090 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 63680, "wage": 36830 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 61250, "wage": 38260 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 63350, "wage": 40440 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 61420, "wage": 43380 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -22.9, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "refractory-materials-repairers-except-brickmasons", "title": "Refractory Materials Repairers, Except Brickmasons", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 65, "median_wage": 61290, "overlap": 91, "skills_to_close": [ "Coordination", "Instructing", "Writing", "Service Orientation" ] }, { "slug": "crane-and-tower-operators", "title": "Crane and Tower Operators", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 67, "median_wage": 68080, "overlap": 86, "skills_to_close": [ "Writing", "Coordination", "Management of Personnel Resources" ] }, { "slug": "welders-cutters-solderers-and-brazers", "title": "Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 62, "median_wage": 53750, "overlap": 86, "skills_to_close": [ "Systems Analysis" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }