← Risk register SOC 13-2011 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Accountants and Auditors

1,449,500 US workers · median $83,680/yr · Business

EXPOSED

The bulk of hours at the national median go to reconciliations, journal entries, transaction tie-outs, variance schedules, tax return prep and workpaper documentation — all structured text-and-number work that AI plus modern ledger software already does at usable quality. What survives is the part where a licensed human signs: the audit opinion, the tax position taken under ambiguous law, the materiality and going-concern call, and the conversation with a client or audit committee about what the numbers actually mean. This title bundles the staff accountant (highly exposed) with the CPA partner and controller (well protected); the modal worker sits closer to the exposed end.

10-year outlook: Headcount in preparation and testing roles shrinks materially over ten years while demand holds for licensed signers, controllers and specialty tax advisors — the pyramid narrows at the bottom, and the path from junior to signer gets steeper.

US employment, 2019–2025+13.2%
1,280,7001,449,500 workers

Headcount grew steadily across the period.

Median pay $71,550 → $83,680 -6.4% in real terms (nominal +17.0%, less ~25% US inflation over the period)

The job count is not the verdict

This line is counted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics — the one figure on this page that isn't a judgement of ours. Headcount moves on demand, offshoring, demographics and the business cycle, and automation is one term among several, often not the loudest.

So a falling line is not evidence that AI did it, and a rising one is not evidence that it won't. Both happen in this register: some occupations resist automation and shrink anyway, others are highly automatable and keep growing. The marked year is 2020.

BLS projection, 2024–2034

+4.6% 1,579,800 → 1,652,600 on the projections basis

Exposed, but growing

AI can already do a lot of these tasks, and the BLS still expects +4.6% more of these jobs by 2034. Demand for the output is growing faster than the work is being automated away — the mechanism BLS gives for software developers, and the combination people most often misread as an error.

Different clocks. The score is what current AI could do to this work today. The projection is how many of these jobs will exist in 2034. Everything between the two — how fast employers actually adopt, whether demand grows in the meantime — is why they can point opposite ways without either being wrong.

~124,200 openings a year on average, including replacing people who leave.

One email if this score changes. Watch as many occupations as you like from the same address — no account, and nothing is sent on a schedule, only when a verdict actually moves.

Also known as — 24 job titles this covers

Titles reported by people doing this work, from the US Department of Labor's O*NET survey. If your job title is here, this page is about your work even though the name doesn't match.

BursarAuditorAccountantTax AuditorCity AuditorAsset AnalystAudit PartnerField AuditorStaff AuditorTax AssociateCounty AuditorTax AccountantTax SpecialistAccount AuditorAudit AssociateBank AccountantCost AccountantFund AccountantMedical AuditorPayroll AnalystPayroll AuditorInternal AuditorRailroad AuditorStaff Accountant

Score — 42/100 resistance

Holding it up: judgment & accountability (12/20). Weakest point: embodiment (2/20).

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 7 + 2 + 11 + 10 + 12 = 42. · Scored 2026-08-11, and re-examined when evidence accumulates rather than on a schedule.

Task resistance 7/20

Mixed — a routine tier and a judgment tier A 7 reflects that bank and intercompany reconciliations, three-way match testing, sampling selection, depreciation schedules, and Form 1120/1065 preparation from a trial balance are now largely tool-driven, while a residue of hours — walkthroughs of a client's controls, chasing an unexplained accrual through emails and contracts, drafting footnote disclosures for a new revenue arrangement — still requires someone assembling facts nobody has coded yet, which is why this sits at the top of the automatable band rather than at 3.

Embodiment 2/20

Fully desk- and screen-based A 2 covers the thin physical tail: inventory observation counts on a warehouse floor at year-end, fixed-asset existence checks, and cash counts at a client site, which for the median accountant is a few days a year against a calendar of ERP screens, Excel, and workpaper software.

Liability shield 11/20

Licensed human required and personally liable An 11 sits just inside the licensed band because the CPA licence is legally load-bearing only at the top of the workpaper — the engagement partner signs the opinion and faces PCAOB sanction, state board discipline, and Section 10A exposure, while the staff and senior accountants who do most of the tick-and-tie, and the entire uncredentialled corporate accounting population under a controller, hold no licence that anyone must have on file.

Trust premium 10/20

Some relationship component A 10 reflects that clients rehire the partner and the controller keeps the CFO's confidence through years of knowing which estimates that company fudges, but the reconciliation and return-prep work below that is routinely offshored to shared service centres and rotated among staff without a client noticing — the relationship carries the engagement, not the deliverable.

Judgment & accountability 12/20

Meaningful discretion A 12 marks the genuine discretion that exists — setting materiality thresholds, deciding whether a contingency is probable and estimable under ASC 450, taking a tax position on economic substance, judging whether management's going-concern plans are realistic — against the fact that most of these calls run through GAAP, IRS regulation, and firm methodology templates with a reviewer above the preparer, so the ambiguous call is escalated rather than owned by the person who found it.

Confidence: high · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works · 1 deployment report on file

What this job involves — and which parts are yours

The verdict above describes this occupation as a whole. Almost nobody does the typical version of a job — tick what's actually in your week and see how your own mix sits.

AI already does these at usable quality

These still need a person

Active moats on the surviving side: licensure, liability, judgment

How to future-proof this job

Training paths for your skill gaps: MIT OpenCourseWare — operations management free · MIT OpenCourseWare — finance and accounting free · Coursera — customer service and client-facing skill courses free to audit · Coursera — communication and interpersonal skills free to audit

All 35 skills ranked by how many jobs they open →

Where this experience transfers — occupations you could move toward

Computed from U.S. Dept. of Labor O*NET skill and knowledge profiles: high overlap with what you already do, a materially higher resistance score, no large jump in required training, and no licence you would have to start a new pipeline to get. Targets that pay meaningfully less, that are themselves COOKED, or whose own headcount is falling are excluded — a move into a shrinking trade is not an escape.

Personal Financial Advisors EXPOSED · 52/100 · you already have ~83% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Operations Analysis, Management of Financial Resources, Service Orientation, Social Perceptiveness

What would move this back up — beyond any one person

The moves above are yours to make. This is the other half: what would have to change in the world for the occupation itself to score higher. None of it is in any one person's gift, but it is where the floor actually comes from. Scores here are not a one-way ratchet. Only two of the five dimensions — task resistance and embodiment — track what machines can do. The other three track law, what buyers will pay for, and who is answerable, and those move in both directions, often in response to the same pressure AI creates. If every lever below landed, this occupation would score around 57/100, still EXPOSED.

5 specific changes that would raise this score
  • already happening liability shield +4

    PCAOB/SEC or state boards adopting an explicit rule that AI-generated audit evidence and analytics require a named engagement partner's documented review and sign-off (PCAOB already has an active standard-setting project on the use of technology-assisted analysis, and AS 1201 supervision requirements); plus state board rules that tax positions produced by software must be signed by a licensed preparer with Circular 230 liability attaching personally

  • already happening task resistance +4

    Genuine two-tier structure: if reconciliations, tie-outs and return prep are fully automated, the residual measured job becomes materiality judgment, going-concern assessment, fraud-risk skepticism, and audit-committee communication — the tier AI cannot own. This raises the score only for those who remain employed; headcount falls at the staff tier

  • plausible judgment accountability +3

    Expanded ICFR and fraud-detection expectations (post-Wirecard/FTX enforcement, SEC clawback and internal-control rules) pushing more explicitly ambiguous calls onto the named signer, plus any rule making the auditor accountable for evaluating the client's AI-generated accounting estimates

  • plausible liability shield +2

    Audit-quality insurers and peer-review programs requiring human attestation that AI outputs were tested, making uninsured AI-only workpapers effectively unusable in litigation defense

  • plausible trust premium +2

    Audit committees and lenders specifying a human-partner-reviewed opinion in engagement letters or debt covenants; some private-equity and bank lenders already demand named-partner accountability rather than firm-level attestation

The limit. Every lever concentrates value in the licensed signer. The modal worker in this SOC is a staff accountant whose hours are exactly the automated tier; liability and judgment gains accrue to a shrinking partner/controller layer, so the occupation's overall score can rise while employment in it falls.

These are conditions, not forecasts — what would have to happen, not what will. Specific rules, cases and bills are named so you can go and check whether they exist and where they stand; verify before relying on any of them. Nothing here is legal or financial advice.

Where this work is, and what it pays there

BLS metro figures for 393 areas. The verdict above does not change by city — the rubric judges what the work involves, not where it happens — but pay and headcount do, and the national median hides a very wide range.

Most of these jobs

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ 111,930 $105,650 +26%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 70,640 $94,360 +13%
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 41,470 $102,140 +22%
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN 41,360 $82,360 -2%
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 37,450 $82,620 -1%
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH 37,150 $100,150 +20%
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL 30,950 $80,920 -3%
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA 30,150 $85,820 +3%

Best paid

San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA 13,180 $121,700 +45%
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA 25,170 $110,730 +32%
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ 111,930 $105,650 +26%

Percentages are against this occupation's national median of $83,680. Counts are jobs in that metro, not vacancies. Metros where the BLS suppressed the cell are absent rather than shown as zero.

Who is actually doing this

The score above is about what the work exposes. This is reporting about real deployments in this occupation — the difference between "could be automated" and "somebody automated it."

Internal Revenue Service · Goldman Sachs · KPMG · PwC

3 of 3 reported cases, with sources

Quick take — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work? One tap, anonymous, and the running tally is public. Nothing else is asked of you.

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

Field reports — what people say has changed

No field reports yet. A written account takes a paragraph rather than a tap, goes to an editor before it appears, and is the one thing on this page the rubric cannot produce on its own.

File a field report

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.

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Kept current

Rather than check back: get the digest and we'll tell you what changed — or watch a single occupation from its own page.