← Risk register SOC 19-1021 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Biochemists and Biophysicists

33,830 US workers · median $127,410/yr · Science

EXPOSED

Roughly half the job is screen work AI now does well or better: literature synthesis, sequence and structure analysis, statistical modeling, figure generation, manuscript and grant drafting — and AlphaFold-class models erased much of the structure-prediction workload outright. What holds is the bench: designing and troubleshooting assays, purifying proteins, running cell culture and instrumentation, and deciding which result is real versus artifact. There is no license or signature requirement, so nothing regulatory protects the analytical tier, and lab automation plus AI compresses how many bodies a project needs.

10-year outlook: Headcount stays flat to shrinking as computational work consolidates into fewer, AI-augmented analysts, while bench-based method development and instrument expertise remain hard to hire for.

US employment, 2019–2025+7.9%
31,36033,830 workers

Headcount grew steadily across the period.

Median pay $94,490 → $127,410 +7.9% in real terms (nominal +34.8%, less ~25% US inflation over the period)

The job count is not the verdict

This line is counted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics — the one figure on this page that isn't a judgement of ours. Headcount moves on demand, offshoring, demographics and the business cycle, and automation is one term among several, often not the loudest.

So a falling line is not evidence that AI did it, and a rising one is not evidence that it won't. Both happen in this register: some occupations resist automation and shrink anyway, others are highly automatable and keep growing. The marked year is 2020.

BLS projection, 2024–2034

+5.8% 35,600 → 37,600 on the projections basis

Exposed, but growing

AI can already do a lot of these tasks, and the BLS still expects +5.8% more of these jobs by 2034. Demand for the output is growing faster than the work is being automated away — the mechanism BLS gives for software developers, and the combination people most often misread as an error.

Different clocks. The score is what current AI could do to this work today. The projection is how many of these jobs will exist in 2034. Everything between the two — how fast employers actually adopt, whether demand grows in the meantime — is why they can point opposite ways without either being wrong.

~2,900 openings a year on average, including replacing people who leave.

One email if this score changes. Watch as many occupations as you like from the same address — no account, and nothing is sent on a schedule, only when a verdict actually moves.

Also known as — 24 job titles this covers

Titles reported by people doing this work, from the US Department of Labor's O*NET survey. If your job title is here, this page is about your work even though the name doesn't match.

ChemistScientistBiochemistBiophysicistToxicologistBiological ChemistProtein BiochemistChemistry ScientistClinical BiochemistClinical ResearcherMolecular BiologistPhysical BiochemistResearch BiochemistBiophysics ResearcherForensic ToxicologistFormulation ScientistBiochemistry ScientistPharmaceutical ScientistAnalytical Research ChemistClinical Laboratory ScientistProtein Biochemistry ScientistPostdoctoral Scholar (Postdoc Scholar)Postdoctoral Associate (Postdoc Associate)Postdoctoral Researcher (Postdoc Researcher)

Score — 44/100 resistance

Holding it up: judgment & accountability (13/20). Weakest point: liability shield (3/20).

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 10 + 12 + 3 + 6 + 13 = 44. · Scored 2026-08-11, and re-examined when evidence accumulates rather than on a schedule.

Task resistance 10/20

Mixed — a routine tier and a judgment tier At 10 the split is real: the dry-lab half — homology searches, docking runs, kinetics curve-fitting in Prism, RNA-seq pipelines, methods sections — is already model-assisted, while the wet half (cloning a construct that won't ligate, chasing a Western that keeps ghosting, tuning an HPLC gradient for a protein that aggregates at pH 7) still needs a person at the hood, which is why it sits mid-band rather than at 5 or at 15.

Embodiment 12/20

Some physical or field component 12 reflects hands that matter but in a controlled room: BSL-2 hoods, -80 freezers, ultracentrifuges, mass spec sample prep, plate readers and cryostats are physical and dexterity-dependent, but it's all bench-top in a climate-controlled facility with fixed protocols, not the uncontrolled field conditions that push a score past 13.

Liability shield 3/20

No licence, no signature requirement 3 is nearly floor because no state licenses a biochemist — no PE stamp, no board certification, no signature on a regulatory filing; a PhD and a PI's approval get you to the bench, and GLP or IRB requirements attach to the institution and the study director, not to your personal credential.

Trust premium 6/20

Some relationship component 6 is the low end of relationship value: your reviewers are anonymous, your papers are judged on data not on you, and reagent vendors are fungible — the only durable relationships are with the program officer funding the grant and long-term collaborators who know your assay works, which is enough to lift you off the anonymous-output floor but not much further.

Judgment & accountability 13/20

Meaningful discretion 13 sits at the top of the discretion band because you decide whether an outlier is biology or a pipetting error, whether an off-target effect kills a candidate compound, and which mechanism the data actually supports — high-consequence calls, but ones that go through PI review, lab meeting, and peer review before anything irreversible happens, unlike a clinician's bedside decision.

Scored twice. An independent second run returned 44/100 — EXPOSED, agreeing with the verdict above.

Confidence: medium · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

What this job involves — and which parts are yours

The verdict above describes this occupation as a whole. Almost nobody does the typical version of a job — tick what's actually in your week and see how your own mix sits.

AI already does these at usable quality

These still need a person

Active moats on the surviving side: embodiment, judgment

How to future-proof this job

Training paths for your skill gaps: MIT OpenCourseWare — circuits, systems and diagnostic method, free and ungated free · edX — operations management and process monitoring courses free to audit · CS50x, Harvard — how software is actually built free · MIT OpenCourseWare — operations management free

All 35 skills ranked by how many jobs they open →

Where this experience transfers — occupations you could move toward

Computed from U.S. Dept. of Labor O*NET skill and knowledge profiles: high overlap with what you already do, a materially higher resistance score, no large jump in required training, and no licence you would have to start a new pipeline to get. Targets that pay meaningfully less, that are themselves COOKED, or whose own headcount is falling are excluded — a move into a shrinking trade is not an escape.

Nuclear Engineers EXPOSED · 57/100 · you already have ~74% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Troubleshooting, Operations Monitoring, Technology Design, Operations Analysis

What would move this back up — beyond any one person

The moves above are yours to make. This is the other half: what would have to change in the world for the occupation itself to score higher. None of it is in any one person's gift, but it is where the floor actually comes from. Scores here are not a one-way ratchet. Only two of the five dimensions — task resistance and embodiment — track what machines can do. The other three track law, what buyers will pay for, and who is answerable, and those move in both directions, often in response to the same pressure AI creates. If every lever below landed, this occupation would score around 58/100, still EXPOSED.

5 specific changes that would raise this score
  • already happening task resistance +3

    As AI absorbs literature synthesis, structure prediction and figure/manuscript drafting, the residual role concentrates on assay design, artifact adjudication and troubleshooting one-off wet-lab failures — genuinely two-tiered work where the judgment tier is the bench. Watch for job postings shifting from 'computational biochemist' to 'assay development / protein science' titles.

  • already happening judgment accountability +3

    If journals and funders extend authorship-accountability rules (ICMJE-style, NIH's 2023 ban on AI in peer review) into a requirement that a named scientist vouch for data provenance and AI-assisted analysis in every submission, and institutions enforce it through research-integrity offices after fabricated-image scandals, the role formally owns the call on what is real.

  • plausible liability shield +4

    For the subset working under FDA GLP/21 CFR Part 11 or GMP, an FDA or EMA requirement that a named qualified scientist personally attest to AI-derived analytical data and model-generated CMC/potency assay results would create a signature point. The FDA's January 2025 draft guidance on AI in regulatory decision-making for drugs, and EMA's AI reflection paper, are the live documents; a credentialed-attestation clause would be the specific thing to watch.

  • plausible embodiment +3

    If the field's center of gravity shifts further toward hard-to-automate modalities — cryo-EM sample prep, membrane protein purification, primary cell and organoid culture, single-molecule biophysics rigs — where instrument-specific hands-on troubleshooting dominates, embodiment weight rises. Contrast with cloud-lab/Emerald-style automated pipetting, which cuts the other way.

  • unlikely trust premium +1

    Weak route only: CRO and biotech clients paying for a named PhD to sign off on assay validity because a wrong go/no-go call costs a clinical program — but this is priced as expertise, not human-ness, and AI-assisted competitors underprice it.

The limit. No licensure exists for the title, so liability protection can only arrive through the pharmaceutical regulatory perimeter and reaches only the industry subset — academic and discovery-stage biochemists get nothing from it. Headcount compression from automation is the dominant force regardless of dimension scores: the remaining judgment tier can be real and still require far fewer people.

These are conditions, not forecasts — what would have to happen, not what will. Specific rules, cases and bills are named so you can go and check whether they exist and where they stand; verify before relying on any of them. Nothing here is legal or financial advice.

Where this work is, and what it pays there

BLS metro figures for 49 areas. The verdict above does not change by city — the rubric judges what the work involves, not where it happens — but pay and headcount do, and the national median hides a very wide range.

Most of these jobs

Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH 13,370 $131,550 +3%
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD 3,050 $134,090 +5%
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ 2,200 $109,620 -14%
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA 1,380 $165,050 +30%
Worcester, MA 1,060 $125,420 -2%
San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA 710 $121,740 -4%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 580 $131,700 +3%
Trenton-Princeton, NJ 520 $124,300 -2%

Best paid

Jacksonville, FL 40 $174,880 +37%
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA 1,380 $165,050 +30%
Knoxville, TN 30 $149,140 +17%

Percentages are against this occupation's national median of $127,410. Counts are jobs in that metro, not vacancies. Metros where the BLS suppressed the cell are absent rather than shown as zero.

Who is actually doing this — nobody, on the record

We have no reported case of a named organisation automating this occupation. Not one deployment, not one announcement.

That is worth saying out loud next to a score of 44. The verdict above is about what the work exposes — what current AI could do to these tasks. It is not a claim that anyone has done it. For this occupation those two things have come apart completely: the capability argument is on this page, and the evidence column is empty.

Read that as a gap in the reporting we can see, not proof of absence — the dispatch runs on English-language feeds and misses plenty. If you know of a case, tell us, or add a field report from inside the job.

Quick take — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work? One tap, anonymous, and the running tally is public. Nothing else is asked of you.

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

Field reports — what people say has changed

No field reports yet. A written account takes a paragraph rather than a tap, goes to an editor before it appears, and is the one thing on this page the rubric cannot produce on its own.

File a field report

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.

Watch this verdict
Kept current

Rather than check back: get the digest and we'll tell you what changed — or watch a single occupation from its own page.