← Risk register SOC 39-6012 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Concierges

49,240 US workers · median $38,950/yr · Personal Care

EXPOSED

The information half of the job — restaurant recommendations, directions, ticket and dinner bookings, itinerary printouts, answering guest questions by phone or chat — is exactly what apps and chat assistants already do, and hotels have been shifting it to in-room tablets and QR menus for a decade. What survives is physical: standing in the lobby, receiving and routing packages, hailing and directing cars, walking a lost guest to the elevator, and fixing a ruined evening on the spot when a reservation falls through. Luxury and residential-building concierges hold up far better than mid-tier hotel desks, where the role is being folded into front-desk headcount.

10-year outlook: Headcount thins at mid-tier hotels as guest apps absorb bookings and information, while luxury hotels and high-end residential buildings keep paying for a visible, accountable human at the door.

US employment, 2019–2025+18.2%
41,67049,240 workers

Dipped in 2020, then grew past where it started.

Median pay $31,390 → $38,950 -0.7% in real terms (nominal +24.1%, less ~25% US inflation over the period)

The job count is not the verdict

This line is counted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics — the one figure on this page that isn't a judgement of ours. Headcount moves on demand, offshoring, demographics and the business cycle, and automation is one term among several, often not the loudest.

So a falling line is not evidence that AI did it, and a rising one is not evidence that it won't. Both happen in this register: some occupations resist automation and shrink anyway, others are highly automatable and keep growing. The marked year is 2020.

BLS projection, 2024–2034

+2.3% 45,600 → 46,700 on the projections basis

Exposed, but growing

AI can already do a lot of these tasks, and the BLS still expects +2.3% more of these jobs by 2034. Demand for the output is growing faster than the work is being automated away — the mechanism BLS gives for software developers, and the combination people most often misread as an error.

Different clocks. The score is what current AI could do to this work today. The projection is how many of these jobs will exist in 2034. Everything between the two — how fast employers actually adopt, whether demand grows in the meantime — is why they can point opposite ways without either being wrong.

~6,800 openings a year on average, including replacing people who leave.

One email if this score changes. Watch as many occupations as you like from the same address — no account, and nothing is sent on a schedule, only when a verdict actually moves.

Also known as — 21 job titles this covers

Titles reported by people doing this work, from the US Department of Labor's O*NET survey. If your job title is here, this page is about your work even though the name doesn't match.

ConciergeSpa ConciergeChef ConciergeClub ConciergeEvent ConciergeHotel ConciergeLobby ConciergeNight ConciergeFront Desk AgentHealth ConciergeHospitality AideMember ConciergePatient ConciergeService ConciergeGuest Service AgentActivities ConciergeConference ConciergeFront Desk ConciergeResidential ConciergeHotel Guest Service AgentConcierge Security Officer

Score — 41/100 resistance

Holding it up: embodiment (13/20). Weakest point: liability shield (1/20).

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 8 + 13 + 1 + 13 + 6 = 41. · Scored 2026-08-11, and re-examined when evidence accumulates rather than on a schedule.

Task resistance 8/20

Mixed — a routine tier and a judgment tier Bookings, directions, local recommendations and guest FAQs are already handled by OpenTable, hotel apps and in-room tablets, which is why this sits at 8 rather than mid-teens — what holds the score above the automatable band is the unscripted lobby work: taking custody of a courier package, flagging a car in the rain, physically walking an elderly guest to their room, and rebuilding an evening after a restaurant loses the 8pm four-top.

Embodiment 13/20

Hands-on in uncontrolled environments You work standing in a lobby and on the sidewalk outside it — luggage handoffs, package intake and storage, dry cleaning runs, doorman-adjacent car staging in weather and traffic — which puts you above deskbound scheduling roles, though the 13 rather than 17 reflects that the environment is your own building, not a construction site or a stranger's home.

Liability shield 1/20

No licence, no signature requirement No state licence, no exam, no registry: a hotel can hire a concierge tomorrow with no credential, and while Les Clefs d'Or membership carries prestige it carries no legal standing and no statutory bar to anyone else doing the work — hence a 1, not a 5.

Trust premium 13/20

The human relationship is the product Repeat guests and building residents ask for you by name, and the value you generate is the accumulated knowledge of which maître d' will hold a table and which resident's daughter arrives Fridays — that regular-relationship equity earns 13, but it stops short of the high teens because most hotel guests stay two nights and never learn your name.

Judgment & accountability 6/20

Executes defined procedures on defined inputs Most calls run on house policy and manager sign-off — comp thresholds, who gets a key, whether a package can be released — so your discretion is real in choosing which vendor to call at 11pm but bounded by an authorization limit and a duty manager standing thirty feet away, which is what a 6 describes.

Confidence: medium · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

What this job involves — and which parts are yours

The verdict above describes this occupation as a whole. Almost nobody does the typical version of a job — tick what's actually in your week and see how your own mix sits.

AI already does these at usable quality

These still need a person

Active moats on the surviving side: physical-presence, trust

How to future-proof this job

Training paths for your skill gaps: OSHA Outreach Training — the 10- and 30-hour cards most employers ask for low · edX — operations management and process monitoring courses free to audit · Coursera — teaching and instructional design, audit free free to audit · edX — performance measurement and evaluation free to audit · Apprenticeship.gov — industrial maintenance and millwright programs paid to train · Coursera — quality control and inspection courses, auditable free free to audit · MIT OpenCourseWare — circuits, systems and diagnostic method, free and ungated free · Coursera — critical thinking and logic, audit free free to audit · Khan Academy — reading and vocabulary, all levels, free free · MIT OpenCourseWare — systems analysis and engineering free

All 35 skills ranked by how many jobs they open →

Where this experience transfers — occupations you could move toward

Computed from U.S. Dept. of Labor O*NET skill and knowledge profiles: high overlap with what you already do, a materially higher resistance score, no large jump in required training, and no licence you would have to start a new pipeline to get. Targets that pay meaningfully less, that are themselves COOKED, or whose own headcount is falling are excluded — a move into a shrinking trade is not an escape.

Flight Attendants SAFE · 73/100 · you already have ~68% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Operation and Control, Operations Monitoring, Instructing, Monitoring

Funeral Attendants EXPOSED · 56/100 · you already have ~62% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Operation and Control, Equipment Maintenance, Quality Control Analysis, Troubleshooting

Private Detectives and Investigators EXPOSED · 56/100 · you already have ~60% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Operation and Control, Critical Thinking, Reading Comprehension, Systems Analysis

What would move this back up — beyond any one person

The moves above are yours to make. This is the other half: what would have to change in the world for the occupation itself to score higher. None of it is in any one person's gift, but it is where the floor actually comes from. Scores here are not a one-way ratchet. Only two of the five dimensions — task resistance and embodiment — track what machines can do. The other three track law, what buyers will pay for, and who is answerable, and those move in both directions, often in response to the same pressure AI creates. If every lever below landed, this occupation would score around 56/100, still EXPOSED.

5 specific changes that would raise this score
  • already happening trust premium +4

    Luxury ratings bodies making 24-hour staffed human concierge a hard criterion — Forbes Travel Guide and AAA Five Diamond standards already require staffed guest-service presence; if these tighten to explicitly disallow tablet/chatbot substitution for concierge function, five-star and Five-Diamond properties must keep bodies in the lobby regardless of cost. Same mechanism in residential: Les Clefs d'Or membership and high-end condo marketing where 'lobby concierge' is a listed amenity in the offering plan.

  • already happening task resistance +3

    Task-mix shift: once itinerary lookup, bookings and FAQ are fully absorbed by guest-messaging AI (Ivy, Duve, Canary already deployed), the residual role is exception recovery — a sold-out reservation on an anniversary, a missed flight, a guest medical incident — which is negotiation with named humans plus discretionary comping. This tier genuinely exists and is what luxury properties measure.

  • plausible embodiment +3

    Residential and mixed-use buildings expanding the desk's physical remit: package volume from e-commerce plus food/grocery courier handoffs, EV valet, access control for cleaners and dog-walkers, and amenity supervision. Where a building's insurer or co-op board requires a staffed desk for after-hours access logging rather than a smart-lock system, the physical presence is contractually fixed.

  • plausible judgment accountability +3

    Formal service-recovery authority: a documented comp/upgrade spending limit delegated to the concierge (common in Ritz-Carlton-style empowerment programs, where line staff hold a per-guest discretionary limit). If that authority is written into the role rather than escalated to a manager, the concierge owns a consequential call under ambiguity.

  • plausible judgment accountability +2

    Duty-of-care and guest-safety escalation being assigned to the desk — recognizing a trafficking indicator, an intoxicated guest, a stalking ex-partner at the door. Some jurisdictions already mandate hospitality trafficking-awareness training (Texas, California SB 970); if a named staffed position is designated as the responsible reporter, judgment weight rises.

The limit. No plausible liability_shield route: there is no license, no board, no signature that attaches personal liability to a concierge, and none is being proposed. Trust premium is real but confined to luxury hotel and high-end residential segments; mid-tier hotel desks have no route at all, and that is where most of the 49,240 headcount sits. Even a maximal version of these levers leaves the occupation in the 50s and shrinking in absolute numbers as the mid-tier folds concierge into front desk.

These are conditions, not forecasts — what would have to happen, not what will. Specific rules, cases and bills are named so you can go and check whether they exist and where they stand; verify before relying on any of them. Nothing here is legal or financial advice.

Where this work is, and what it pays there

BLS metro figures for 126 areas. The verdict above does not change by city — the rubric judges what the work involves, not where it happens — but pay and headcount do, and the national median hides a very wide range.

Most of these jobs

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ 7,630 $51,190 +31%
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 4,650 $38,810 +0%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 2,460 $43,560 +12%
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL 2,140 $35,870 -8%
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 1,290 $35,670 -8%
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN 1,210 $37,440 -4%
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD 1,130 $40,820 +5%
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA 1,050 $34,070 -13%

Best paid

Kahului-Wailuku, HI 200 $63,430 +63%
Urban Honolulu, HI 220 $56,200 +44%
Napa, CA 90 $55,420 +42%

Percentages are against this occupation's national median of $38,950. Counts are jobs in that metro, not vacancies. Metros where the BLS suppressed the cell are absent rather than shown as zero.

Who is actually doing this

The score above is about what the work exposes. This is reporting about real deployments in this occupation — the difference between "could be automated" and "somebody automated it."

1 of 1 reported case, with sources
  • deployed · Jul 2, 2026 · Falstaff
    China’s First Robot-Run Hotel - Falstaff

    Falstaff reports on the opening of what is described as China's first hotel operated by robots, with automated systems handling guest service tasks.

Quick take — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work? One tap, anonymous, and the running tally is public. Nothing else is asked of you.

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

Field reports — what people say has changed

No field reports yet. A written account takes a paragraph rather than a tap, goes to an editor before it appears, and is the one thing on this page the rubric cannot produce on its own.

File a field report

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.

Watch this verdict
Kept current

Rather than check back: get the digest and we'll tell you what changed — or watch a single occupation from its own page.