← Risk register SOC 29-1213 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Dermatologists

11,370 US workers · median $328,730/yr · Healthcare

SAFE

Lesion image classification is the one dermatology task where AI genuinely competes — CNNs already match dermatologists on curated melanoma photo sets — but that is a slice of the job, not the job. The median dermatologist spends the day doing full-body skin exams, dermoscopy, punch and shave biopsies, cryotherapy, excisions, cosmetic injectables and lasers, plus prescribing systemic immunosuppressants and biologics that require a licensed prescriber and personal liability for outcomes. AI will most likely arrive as triage that raises the volume of referred lesions the dermatologist must physically inspect and cut.

10-year outlook: By 2035 AI screening will push more suspicious-lesion volume into dermatology clinics rather than replacing them, and the earnings center shifts further toward surgical and procedural work while pure visual-diagnosis consults get compressed.

Score — 78/100 resistance

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 13 + 15 + 19 + 15 + 16 = 78.

Task resistance 13/20

Mixed — a routine tier and a judgment tier. A 13 rather than 17 reflects that image-based triage of pigmented lesions and teledermatology store-and-forward reads are genuinely contestable by CNNs, while the same day's punch biopsies, Mohs-adjacent excisions, intralesional steroid injections and palpation of scaly plaques for texture and induration have no digital substitute — so roughly a fifth of billable encounters are exposed, not the core.

Embodiment 15/20

Hands-on in uncontrolled environments. Full-body skin checks under Wood's lamp, dermoscopy contact plate on the patient's back, liquid nitrogen sprays, shave and punch biopsies with suture closure, and laser and injectable work all happen with gloved hands on a live patient in an exam room — it sits at 15 rather than 19 because the environment is a controlled clinic, not a roadside or a crawl space.

Liability shield 19/20

Licensed human required and personally liable. Prescribing isotretinoin under iPLEDGE, dosing methotrexate and cyclosporine, and signing off on biologics like dupilumab all require an unrestricted state medical licence plus board certification, and the named physician carries the malpractice exposure when a missed melanoma metastasises — 19 rather than 20 only because some cosmetic procedures can be delegated to supervised NPs and PAs.

Trust premium 15/20

The human relationship is the product. Patients undress completely for a stranger and return for years of acne, psoriasis or atopic dermatitis management where adherence depends on whether they believe the person telling them to keep taking the drug — a 15 rather than 19 because much of the volume is one-off lesion checks and referred biopsies where the patient never sees the same dermatologist twice.

Judgment & accountability 16/20

Exists to be accountable for ambiguous calls. Deciding whether an atypical nevus warrants excision with 5 mm margins or annual photography, whether a rash is a drug eruption or early cutaneous lymphoma, and whether to start a systemic immunosuppressant in a patient with latent TB are calls with no protocol that resolves them and real downside either way — 16 rather than 19 because staging and treatment of confirmed melanoma follows NCCN pathways.

Confidence: high · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

Tasks already automatable

What survives

Active moats: licensure, embodiment, liability, trust

How to future-proof this job

Field report — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work?

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

From people who do this job

Nobody has filed one yet. If you do this work, you know things the rubric can't see.

What has actually changed in your work?

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.