← Risk register SOC 19-1041 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Epidemiologists

12,090 US workers · median $87,220/yr · Science

EXPOSED

Most of the week is surveillance data cleaning, R/SAS regression, literature review, and writing reports and grant sections — all things current models draft at usable quality with supervision. What holds is designing studies whose confounders aren't obvious, running field outbreak investigations with case interviews and site visits, and standing behind a case definition or exposure conclusion that drives a public health order. The modal worker here is a state/local health department or academic analyst, not a field investigator, so the automatable share of the job is larger than the profession's self-image suggests.

10-year outlook: Analytic headcount thins as one epidemiologist plus AI covers what three did, while field investigation, case-definition authority, and public briefing roles hold or grow with outbreak funding cycles.

Score — 45/100 resistance

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 10 + 7 + 5 + 9 + 14 = 45.

Task resistance 10/20

Mixed — a routine tier and a judgment tier. A 10 reflects the split week: line-list cleaning, Poisson and Cox models in R, and drafting the background and methods sections of a grant are already model-drafted, while specifying a case definition mid-outbreak, deciding whether a cluster's excess is surveillance artifact or real transmission, and designing a cohort where the confounder is something nobody has measured yet still take a trained human — and that second set is a real third of the job, not a footnote.

Embodiment 7/20

Some physical or field component. 7 covers the fraction of epidemiologists who do periodic field work — door-to-door or telephone case interviews, restaurant or long-term-care facility walkthroughs, specimen and environmental sampling coordination, PPE-donned site entry during an outbreak — against a baseline of most weeks spent entirely in NEDSS/SAS at a desk.

Liability shield 5/20

Certification preferred, not legally required. At 5 you sit where the CIC or CPH credential is a hiring preference rather than a statute: the health officer or state epidemiologist signs the quarantine or closure order and carries the legal exposure, and nothing in your analysis requires a personally licensed signature the way a physician's or engineer's does.

Trust premium 9/20

Some relationship component. 9 is earned in the relationships that actually gate your data — the infection preventionist who calls you before the lab report posts, the clinic that returns your interview attempts, the CSTE and CDC counterparts who share unpublished cluster detail — but the published MMWR article or annual surveillance report itself is read for its numbers, not for who wrote it.

Judgment & accountability 14/20

Exists to be accountable for ambiguous calls. 14 rests on calls that have no clean procedure and immediate consequences: setting the confirmed-versus-probable boundary when the assay is imperfect, deciding an exposure is causal enough to name a source publicly, recommending school closure or a contact-tracing scope on incomplete data, and defending that inference to press and legislators when a revision would look like error.

Confidence: medium · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

Tasks already automatable

What survives

Active moats: judgment, trust

How to future-proof this job

Escape hatches — adjacent fields with better verdicts

Computed from U.S. Dept. of Labor O*NET skill profiles: high overlap with what you already do, materially higher resistance score.

Nurse Practitioners SAFE · 80/100 · you already have ~81% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Troubleshooting, Operation and Control, Service Orientation, Operations Monitoring

Neurologists SAFE · 80/100 · you already have ~80% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Quality Control Analysis, Troubleshooting, Operations Monitoring, Technology Design

Physicians, All Other SAFE · 82/100 · you already have ~79% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Quality Control Analysis, Operations Monitoring, Troubleshooting, Operation and Control

Field report — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work?

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

From people who do this job

Nobody has filed one yet. If you do this work, you know things the rubric can't see.

What has actually changed in your work?

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.