← Risk register SOC 15-1244 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Network and Computer Systems Administrators

314,340 US workers · median $99,130/yr · Tech

EXPOSED

The bread-and-butter of this job — account provisioning, patch cycles, log triage, backup verification, firewall rule edits, ticket resolution, runbook writing — is exactly what infrastructure-as-code, cloud managed services, and AI copilots are absorbing fastest; the same wave that killed manual server builds is now eating first-line troubleshooting. What holds is the physical and organizational half: racking and cabling gear, chasing an intermittent switch or AP problem across a building, restoring service at 2am when the automation itself is the thing that broke, and being the person accountable for an outage or a breach. No license protects this work, which is why the ceiling is modest.

10-year outlook: Headcount per server keeps falling as cloud and automation consolidate the work; by 2035 the surviving roles are security-adjacent, platform/SRE-flavored, or physically tied to sites, and pure Windows-admin generalist jobs are scarce.

US employment, 2019–2025-11.3%
354,450314,340 workers

This fall is concentrated in 2020 and has not recovered since.

Median pay $83,510 → $99,130 -5.0% in real terms (nominal +18.7%, less ~25% US inflation over the period)

The job count is not the verdict

This line is counted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics — the one figure on this page that isn't a judgement of ours. Headcount moves on demand, offshoring, demographics and the business cycle, and automation is one term among several, often not the loudest.

So a falling line is not evidence that AI did it, and a rising one is not evidence that it won't. Both happen in this register: some occupations resist automation and shrink anyway, others are highly automatable and keep growing. The marked year is 2020.

BLS projection, 2024–2034

-4.2% 331,500 → 317,700 on the projections basis

Exposed, and shrinking

Both signals point the same way: the tasks are largely automatable and the BLS projects -4.2% by 2034. This is the case where the score and the forecast agree, and it is the one worth taking seriously.

Different clocks. The score is what current AI could do to this work today. The projection is how many of these jobs will exist in 2034. Everything between the two — how fast employers actually adopt, whether demand grows in the meantime — is why they can point opposite ways without either being wrong.

~14,300 openings a year on average, including replacing people who leave.

One email if this score changes. Watch as many occupations as you like from the same address — no account, and nothing is sent on a schedule, only when a verdict actually moves.

Also known as — 24 job titles this covers

Titles reported by people doing this work, from the US Department of Labor's O*NET survey. If your job title is here, this page is about your work even though the name doesn't match.

Network ManagerSoftware ManagerSystems OperatorSystems SpecialistInformation AnalystNetwork CoordinatorServer AdministratorNetwork AdministratorWindows AdministratorSecurity AdministratorNetwork Control AnalystNetwork Support ManagerVirtualization EngineerInstallation CoordinatorNetworking AdministratorProvider Network ManagerInternetwork Expert (CCIE)E-Mail System AdministratorNetwork Professional (CCNP)Network Support CoordinatorNetwork Systems CoordinatorInformation Systems OperatorSystems Tester AdministratorNetwork Support Administrator

Score — 40/100 resistance

Holding it up: judgment & accountability (12/20). Weakest point: liability shield (2/20).

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 9 + 9 + 2 + 8 + 12 = 40. · Scored 2026-08-11, and re-examined when evidence accumulates rather than on a schedule.

Task resistance 9/20

Mixed — a routine tier and a judgment tier At 9 the split is real but lopsided: Ansible/Terraform, Intune, and cloud consoles already handle the provisioning, imaging, patch rings, and certificate renewals that used to fill the week, while the residue that resists — reverse-engineering an undocumented legacy dependency, diagnosing why VLAN 40 drops at 4pm, deciding what to sacrifice during a partial SAN failure — is maybe a third of the calendar, not enough for a 14.

Embodiment 9/20

Some physical or field component A 9 reflects that you do rack switches, run and label patch cables, swap failed drives and PSUs, walk floors with a laptop hunting an AP coverage hole, and drive to the branch office when the VPN appliance bricks — but that's in server rooms, IDF closets, and offices with climate control and known layouts, not rooftops or trenches, and most days you never leave your desk.

Liability shield 2/20

No licence, no signature requirement A 2 is honest: no state licenses systems administrators, and CCNA, MCSE, RHCE, or Security+ are hiring filters set by employers, not legal gatekeepers — after a breach the notification duty and the fines land on the organization and its CISO under HIPAA, GLBA, or state law, and your exposure is being fired, not being sanctioned by a board.

Trust premium 8/20

Some relationship component An 8 accounts for the fact that internal customers ask for you by name, executives call your cell rather than open a ticket, and years of knowing which finance app breaks on a .NET update is genuinely portable capital — but the deliverable is uptime, and when an MSP takes over the contract users complain for a quarter and then adapt.

Judgment & accountability 12/20

Meaningful discretion A 12 fits calls that are yours alone with no procedure to hide behind — whether to fail over or wait, whether to isolate an infected subnet and halt a department, which backup generation to trust when the newest one may be encrypted, whether to push an emergency patch on a Friday — but the change window, the RTO, and the risk appetite were set above you, which keeps it out of the 14-plus range.

Confidence: high · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works · 1 deployment report on file

What this job involves — and which parts are yours

The verdict above describes this occupation as a whole. Almost nobody does the typical version of a job — tick what's actually in your week and see how your own mix sits.

AI already does these at usable quality

These still need a person

Active moats on the surviving side: embodiment, judgment

How to future-proof this job

Training paths for your skill gaps: Purdue OWL — the standard reference for professional writing free · MIT OpenCourseWare — full course materials across every department, free free · Khan Academy — physics, chemistry and biology from the ground up free · Toastmasters — public speaking practice at local clubs worldwide low

All 35 skills ranked by how many jobs they open →

Where this experience transfers — occupations you could move toward

Computed from U.S. Dept. of Labor O*NET skill and knowledge profiles: high overlap with what you already do, a materially higher resistance score, no large jump in required training, and no licence you would have to start a new pipeline to get. Targets that pay meaningfully less, that are themselves COOKED, or whose own headcount is falling are excluded — a move into a shrinking trade is not an escape.

Electrical Engineers EXPOSED · 52/100 · you already have ~60% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Writing, Active Learning, Science, Speaking

What would move this back up — beyond any one person

The moves above are yours to make. This is the other half: what would have to change in the world for the occupation itself to score higher. None of it is in any one person's gift, but it is where the floor actually comes from. Scores here are not a one-way ratchet. Only two of the five dimensions — task resistance and embodiment — track what machines can do. The other three track law, what buyers will pay for, and who is answerable, and those move in both directions, often in response to the same pressure AI creates. If every lever below landed, this occupation would score around 55/100, still EXPOSED.

5 specific changes that would raise this score
  • already happening judgment accountability +4

    Incident-command accountability being formalized: SEC cyber disclosure rules (Item 1.05, effective Dec 2023) and NYDFS Part 500 amendments require a named individual to certify materiality and control effectiveness within days of an incident. If the person who owns the environment is routinely the attestor of record — as CISOs increasingly delegate technical certification downward — the role owns consequential calls with personal exposure.

  • already happening task resistance +3

    Genuine two-tier shift: as IaC and AI copilots absorb provisioning, patching, and first-line ticket triage, the residual work becomes failure-domain design, blast-radius review of AI-generated config changes, and recovering when the automation itself is the failure (the CrowdStrike July 2024 pattern). Watch for job postings retitled toward platform/reliability engineering with change-review duties.

  • already happening trust premium +2

    Narrow route only: classified, ITAR, or CJIS-scoped environments where cleared US-person administrators are contractually mandated and offshore or AI-mediated administration is barred. This is a compliance mandate that reads as trust premium, not buyer preference.

  • plausible embodiment +3

    AI-driven datacenter buildout raising the share of hands-on work: power, cooling, GPU cluster cabling, and optics fault isolation in facilities where remote hands cannot diagnose intermittent physical-layer faults. Also OT/air-gapped environments under CISA critical-infrastructure guidance where remote administration is prohibited by policy.

  • plausible liability shield +3

    The only credible route is cyber-insurance underwriting, not licensure: carriers already require MFA and EDR attestations signed by a named administrator, and a false attestation can void coverage. If insurers move to requiring a named, credentialed individual (CISSP-level or equivalent) to sign control attestations — as some CMMC Level 2 assessments already do for defense contractors — a weak personal-liability hook appears.

The limit. Even with every lever, this caps in the low-to-mid 50s. There is no licensing body, no protected title, and no path to one — attempts to license IT practitioners have repeatedly failed in the US. Most gains come from task-mix shift and insurer attestation, both of which shrink headcount while raising the value of survivors.

These are conditions, not forecasts — what would have to happen, not what will. Specific rules, cases and bills are named so you can go and check whether they exist and where they stand; verify before relying on any of them. Nothing here is legal or financial advice.

Where this work is, and what it pays there

BLS metro figures for 379 areas. The verdict above does not change by city — the rubric judges what the work involves, not where it happens — but pay and headcount do, and the national median hides a very wide range.

Most of these jobs

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ 17,690 $119,390 +20%
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 11,740 $103,260 +4%
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 9,920 $125,430 +27%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 8,770 $106,290 +7%
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN 6,950 $103,170 +4%
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH 6,760 $116,770 +18%
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL 6,340 $97,180 -2%
Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX 6,330 $101,430 +2%

Best paid

San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA 2,460 $133,360 +35%
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA 3,910 $129,680 +31%
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 9,920 $125,430 +27%

Percentages are against this occupation's national median of $99,130. Counts are jobs in that metro, not vacancies. Metros where the BLS suppressed the cell are absent rather than shown as zero.

Who is actually doing this

The score above is about what the work exposes. This is reporting about real deployments in this occupation — the difference between "could be automated" and "somebody automated it."

City of Charlotte, North Carolina

2 of 2 reported cases, with sources

Quick take — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work? One tap, anonymous, and the running tally is public. Nothing else is asked of you.

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

Field reports — what people say has changed

No field reports yet. A written account takes a paragraph rather than a tap, goes to an editor before it appears, and is the one thing on this page the rubric cannot produce on its own.

File a field report

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.

Watch this verdict
Kept current

Rather than check back: get the digest and we'll tell you what changed — or watch a single occupation from its own page.