← Risk register SOC 29-1151 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Nurse Anesthetists

51,840 US workers · median $236,590/yr · Healthcare

SAFE

A CRNA's hour-by-hour work is physical and high-stakes: intubating, placing IV and regional blocks, titrating drugs to a patient's live hemodynamics, and rescuing airways when a case goes wrong. AI can pre-screen charts, draft anesthesia records, and flag risk scores, but no current system can hold a laryngoscope or own the decision to push epinephrine. State licensure plus APRN scope rules require a credentialed human physically present and personally liable for every case.

10-year outlook: Demand grows with surgical volume and rural anesthesia shortages; AI absorbs the paperwork and monitoring alarms while the CRNA keeps the hands, the license, and the liability.

US employment, 2019–2025+19.0%
43,57051,840 workers

Dipped in 2020, then grew past where it started.

Median pay $174,790 → $236,590 +8.3% in real terms (nominal +35.4%, less ~25% US inflation over the period)

The job count is not the verdict

This line is counted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics — the one figure on this page that isn't a judgement of ours. Headcount moves on demand, offshoring, demographics and the business cycle, and automation is one term among several, often not the loudest.

So a falling line is not evidence that AI did it, and a rising one is not evidence that it won't. Both happen in this register: some occupations resist automation and shrink anyway, others are highly automatable and keep growing. The marked year is 2020.

BLS projection, 2024–2034

+8.6% 53,800 → 58,500 on the projections basis

Hard to automate, and growing

The work resists current AI and the BLS projects +8.6% more of these jobs by 2034. Note that safe does not mean well paid — several of the fastest-growing resistant occupations are among the lowest paid on the register.

Different clocks. The score is what current AI could do to this work today. The projection is how many of these jobs will exist in 2034. Everything between the two — how fast employers actually adopt, whether demand grows in the meantime — is why they can point opposite ways without either being wrong.

~2,700 openings a year on average, including replacing people who leave.

One email if this score changes. Watch as many occupations as you like from the same address — no account, and nothing is sent on a schedule, only when a verdict actually moves.

Also known as — 7 job titles this covers

Titles reported by people doing this work, from the US Department of Labor's O*NET survey. If your job title is here, this page is about your work even though the name doesn't match.

Nurse AnesthetistAnesthesia PhysicianAnesthesia SpecialistStaff Nurse AnesthetistCertified Nurse AnesthetistCertified Registered Nurse Anesthetist (CRNA)Staff Certified Registered Nurse Anesthetist (Staff CRNA)

Score — 89/100 resistance

Holding it up: embodiment (19/20). Weakest point: trust premium (15/20).

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 17 + 19 + 19 + 15 + 19 = 89. · Scored 2026-08-11, and re-examined when evidence accumulates rather than on a schedule.

Task resistance 17/20

Tasks largely resist digitisation Closed-loop propofol TCI systems and automated record-keeping shave off the documentation and steady-state infusion adjustments, but the core of the day — mask ventilation, direct or video laryngoscopy on an unexpected Grade III airway, ultrasound-guided interscalene or adductor canal blocks, and repositioning a patient whose blood pressure drops on turning prone — has no digitisable substitute, which is why this sits at 17 rather than a perfect 20.

Embodiment 19/20

Hands-on in uncontrolled environments You are gloved and at the head of the bed in an OR, obstetric suite, or endoscopy room for the whole case: hands on the airway, drawing and pushing drugs, doing cricoid pressure, managing a Bair Hugger and lines, and physically moving with the patient to PACU — the only reason it isn't 20 is that the environment is a controlled OR rather than a roadside or rooftop.

Liability shield 19/20

Licensed human required and personally liable CRNAs hold an RN licence plus NBCRNA certification and independent APRN prescriptive authority, sign their own anesthesia record, and in opt-out states bill and are sued in their own name without a physician co-signature — the 19 rather than 20 reflects that in supervised-practice states an anesthesiologist may share captain-of-the-ship exposure.

Trust premium 15/20

The human relationship is the product The pre-op interview where you assess Mallampati, NPO status, and a patient's terror of going under does real work, and OB patients often ask for the CRNA who placed their last epidural, but most cases involve a patient you meet twenty minutes before they lose consciousness and never see again — a persistent relationship, unlike surgery or primary care, is not the deliverable, hence 15 not 19.

Judgment & accountability 19/20

Exists to be accountable for ambiguous calls You decide alone and in seconds whether a desaturating patient needs a supraglottic rescue or a surgical airway, whether that ST change is ischemia or artifact, whether to proceed with a case when the potassium comes back at 6.1, and how much bupivacaine is safe in a 48kg patient on anticoagulants — irreversible calls with no time to escalate, which is what 19 looks like.

Confidence: high · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

What this job involves — and which parts are yours

The verdict above describes this occupation as a whole. Almost nobody does the typical version of a job — tick what's actually in your week and see how your own mix sits.

AI already does these at usable quality

These still need a person

Active moats on the surviving side: embodiment, licensure, liability, trust, judgment

How to future-proof this job

Where to go deeper on what this job runs on: Khan Academy — reading and vocabulary, all levels, free free · Coursera — critical thinking and logic, audit free free to audit · Coursera — active listening and communication skills free to audit · Toastmasters — public speaking practice at local clubs worldwide low · MIT OpenCourseWare — full course materials across every department, free free · edX — performance measurement and evaluation free to audit

All 35 skills ranked by how many jobs they open →

What would move this back up — beyond any one person

The moves above are yours to make. This is the other half: what would have to change in the world for the occupation itself to score higher. None of it is in any one person's gift, but it is where the floor actually comes from. Scores here are not a one-way ratchet. Only two of the five dimensions — task resistance and embodiment — track what machines can do. The other three track law, what buyers will pay for, and who is answerable, and those move in both directions, often in response to the same pressure AI creates. If every lever below landed, this occupation would score around 96/100, still SAFE.

4 specific changes that would raise this score
  • plausible trust premium +3

    Hospital or surgery-center marketing and payer contracts that specify a dedicated 1:1 anesthesia provider per case rather than anesthesiologist-directed teams covering 4 rooms with monitoring software; also patient-consent forms that name and disclose the individual provider, which some state informed-consent statutes (e.g., Pennsylvania's MCARE Act) already push toward

  • plausible task resistance +2

    If closed-loop TIVA/TCI depth-of-anesthesia titration systems (McSleepy-type, and BIS-guided propofol control now in trials) take over routine ASA I-II maintenance, the residual CRNA caseload skews to ASA III-IV, difficult airways, obstetric and trauma emergencies — the judgment tier — raising the share of the day AI cannot do

  • plausible liability shield +1

    CMS finalizing removal of the physician-supervision opt-out ambiguity in favor of full independent CRNA billing/practice in more states (currently ~25 opt-out states; state bills in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan recur), plus Joint Commission or malpractice-carrier requirements that a named anesthesia provider physically present sign the intraoperative record — makes the CRNA the sole liable signer rather than a co-signer

  • plausible judgment accountability +1

    Little headroom; already near ceiling. A formal requirement that the anesthesia provider hold veto authority over surgical go/no-go on airway or hemodynamic grounds, written into hospital bylaws, would harden it

The limit. At 89/100 with four dimensions at 17-19, the realistic gain is a few points in trust_premium; everything else is at or near ceiling. The larger risk to this occupation is not AI substitution but staffing-model economics — anesthesiologist-directed team ratios widening as monitoring software improves, which cuts headcount without touching any dimension score.

These are conditions, not forecasts — what would have to happen, not what will. Specific rules, cases and bills are named so you can go and check whether they exist and where they stand; verify before relying on any of them. Nothing here is legal or financial advice.

Where this work is, and what it pays there

BLS metro figures for 121 areas. The verdict above does not change by city — the rubric judges what the work involves, not where it happens — but pay and headcount do, and the national median hides a very wide range.

Most of these jobs

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ 2,310 $321,030 +36%
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 1,290 $218,650 -8%
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 1,250 $258,570 +9%
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD 1,190 $238,540 +1%
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI 1,170 $243,130 +3%
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 1,070 $206,270 -13%
Kansas City, MO-KS 980 $218,080 -8%
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC 910 $277,550 +17%

Best paid

Jacksonville, FL 340 $416,000 +76%
Fayetteville, NC 90 $331,760 +40%
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ 2,310 $321,030 +36%

Percentages are against this occupation's national median of $236,590. Counts are jobs in that metro, not vacancies. Metros where the BLS suppressed the cell are absent rather than shown as zero.

Who is actually doing this — nobody, on the record

We have no reported case of a named organisation automating this occupation. Not one deployment, not one announcement.

That is worth saying out loud next to a score of 89. The verdict above is about what the work exposes — what current AI could do to these tasks. It is not a claim that anyone has done it. For this occupation those two things have come apart completely: the capability argument is on this page, and the evidence column is empty.

Read that as a gap in the reporting we can see, not proof of absence — the dispatch runs on English-language feeds and misses plenty. If you know of a case, tell us, or add a field report from inside the job.

Quick take — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work? One tap, anonymous, and the running tally is public. Nothing else is asked of you.

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

Field reports — what people say has changed

No field reports yet. A written account takes a paragraph rather than a tap, goes to an editor before it appears, and is the one thing on this page the rubric cannot produce on its own.

File a field report

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.

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