← Risk register SOC 29-1122 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Occupational Therapists

162,450 US workers · median $100,330/yr · Healthcare

SAFE

The core of the job is physically guiding a stroke patient through dressing and transfer practice, fitting and fabricating splints, assessing a home or workplace for fall hazards, and adjusting a plan when the person cries or refuses. AI can already draft evaluation narratives, pick CPT codes, generate home exercise handouts, and pre-fill Medicare progress notes — the documentation load that eats OT hours is genuinely exposed. But treatment delivery requires licensed hands in a room, and state licensure plus payer rules make the OT personally accountable for the plan of care.

10-year outlook: Demand grows with an aging population and OTs stay employed, but expect documentation-driven productivity quotas to rise as AI absorbs the paperwork — the winners will be those in specialty, hands-on, or environmental-assessment niches.

Score — 79/100 resistance

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 15 + 17 + 15 + 17 + 15 = 79.

Task resistance 15/20

Tasks largely resist digitisation. Grading a dressing task in real time, fabricating a thermoplastic wrist orthosis to a specific joint angle, and reading whether a patient's refusal is pain, apraxia, or depression are not steps that survive being turned into a workflow — but goniometry logging, standardized assessment scoring (COPM, FIM), and discharge summary drafting do, which is why this sits at 15 rather than 18.

Embodiment 17/20

Hands-on in uncontrolled environments. OTs work in ICUs, SNF hallways, school classrooms, and clients' actual kitchens and bathrooms doing home safety assessments — measuring doorway clearances, transferring a 200-pound hemiplegic patient with a gait belt, molding splints on a live limb — environments nobody controls and no fixed equipment covers.

Liability shield 15/20

Licensed human required and personally liable. State OT licensure under practice acts plus NBCOT certification means you sign the plan of care yourself, your signature is what makes Medicare Part B minutes billable, and a botched transfer or a splint that causes pressure necrosis lands on your licence — not 18+ only because much of the day is delivered under a physician referral and an OTA can execute treatment under your supervision.

Trust premium 17/20

The human relationship is the product. Getting a stroke survivor to attempt buttoning a shirt they failed at yesterday, or persuading a parent that their child needs sensory strategies rather than a diagnosis, depends on a rapport built over weeks of episodes of care that a new evaluator has to rebuild from zero.

Judgment & accountability 15/20

Exists to be accountable for ambiguous calls. You decide when someone is safe to go home alone, whether cognition supports independent medication management, and when to discharge or escalate against family pressure — high-stakes and genuinely ambiguous, though bounded by physician orders, established frames of reference, and payer-driven visit caps.

Confidence: high · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

Tasks already automatable

What survives

Active moats: embodiment, licensure, trust, judgment

How to future-proof this job

Field report — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work?

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

From people who do this job

Nobody has filed one yet. If you do this work, you know things the rubric can't see.

What has actually changed in your work?

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.