← Risk register SOC 19-2099 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Physical Scientists, All Other

22,300 US workers · median $122,570/yr · Science

EXPOSED

This is a catch-all bucket (materials and surface scientists, oceanographic and atmospheric specialists, forensic and government lab scientists), and the modal worker splits time between instrument-based lab or field measurement and desk work: literature review, data reduction, statistical modeling, and report and grant writing. The desk half is the most automatable part of the job — AI already drafts methods sections, writes analysis scripts, and screens literature faster than a postdoc. What holds is hands-on experimental design, running and calibrating physical instruments, field sampling, and being the person who signs off on whether a result is real.

10-year outlook: Headcount holds roughly flat but the job reshapes: fewer hours on analysis and writing, more on instrumentation, field deployment, and standing behind conclusions.

Score — 42/100 resistance

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 11 + 9 + 3 + 7 + 12 = 42.

Task resistance 11/20

Mixed — a routine tier and a judgment tier. Sample prep, XPS or SEM runs, instrument calibration and drift checks, and deciding which follow-up experiment actually discriminates between two hypotheses stay with you — but the literature triage, the Python that reduces your spectra, the statistics, and the first draft of the methods and results sections are now hours of assisted work rather than days, and those pieces are close to half of a typical week, which is what lands this at 11 instead of the 15+ a bench-only role would earn.

Embodiment 9/20

Some physical or field component. Cruise-based water sampling, radiosonde launches, contaminated-site fieldwork and glovebox or vacuum-chamber work put real hands-on hours in the job, but the modal person in this bucket does that in a temperature-controlled lab or on scheduled campaigns, not daily in uncontrolled conditions — a 9 reflects field-and-bench work that is intermittent and mostly staged, unlike a well-site geologist who is outdoors by default.

Liability shield 3/20

No licence, no signature requirement. There is no licence to practise as a materials or atmospheric scientist: a PhD and a lab safety certification get you to the bench, and when a result is wrong the institution, the PI, or the accrediting body (ISO 17025, ASCLD for forensic labs) absorbs it — the 3 rather than 0 is only because forensic examiners can be cross-examined personally on their own findings.

Trust premium 7/20

Some relationship component. Peer review is blind and papers are read for the data, not the author, so most output travels without you attached; the 7 comes from the parts that don't — program managers who fund you again because your last deliverable was clean, and the internal client who brings a failure analysis to you specifically because you told them the truth about the last one.

Judgment & accountability 12/20

Meaningful discretion. Calling a peak real versus instrument artifact, deciding a contaminated run gets discarded rather than reported, and setting detection limits and uncertainty bounds are genuinely yours and often unfalsifiable in the short term — but much of the work runs on written protocols, SOPs and validated methods, and the consequential calls usually go up to a PI, program office, or lab director before anyone acts, which caps this at 12.

Confidence: low · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

Tasks already automatable

What survives

Active moats: embodiment, judgment

How to future-proof this job

Escape hatches — adjacent fields with better verdicts

Computed from U.S. Dept. of Labor O*NET skill profiles: high overlap with what you already do, materially higher resistance score.

Surveyors SAFE · 72/100 · you already have ~71% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Equipment Maintenance, Repairing, Operation and Control, Equipment Selection

Field report — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work?

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

From people who do this job

Nobody has filed one yet. If you do this work, you know things the rubric can't see.

What has actually changed in your work?

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.