← Risk register SOC 29-1123 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Physical Therapists

267,330 US workers · median $102,760/yr · Healthcare

SAFE

The core of the job is hands-on: palpating tissue, guiding a post-surgical knee through range of motion, spotting a stroke patient's gait deviation in real time, and adjusting load mid-session based on how the body responds. AI can draft the SOAP note, pick exercise templates, flag insurance-authorization language, and triage outcome data — all real time savings, none of it the treatment. State licensure plus personal accountability for patient safety during mobilization means a licensed human signs the plan of care and takes the fall if a patient falls.

10-year outlook: Demand grows with an aging population while AI absorbs documentation and exercise-prescription drudgery; the main pressure comes from payers pushing volume onto assistants and app-based home programs, not from AI replacing the clinician.

Score — 86/100 resistance

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 15 + 19 + 17 + 17 + 18 = 86.

Task resistance 15/20

Tasks largely resist digitisation. Manual therapy, joint mobilization, and gait retraining can't be delegated to software — the parts that can (documentation, HEP handouts, initial outcome-measure scoring, prior-auth letters) are maybe a fifth of the workday, which is why this sits at 15 rather than 18: the eval interview, goal-setting, and progress-note reasoning are increasingly template-and-LLM assisted even though the treatment itself isn't.

Embodiment 19/20

Hands-on in uncontrolled environments. You are physically under a 200-pound patient during a sit-to-stand transfer, feeling for end-feel at a stiff shoulder capsule, and catching someone whose knee buckles on a ramp — 19 rather than 20 only because a slice of practice (telehealth follow-ups, wound-care consult review, some pediatric parent coaching) happens without your hands on anyone.

Liability shield 17/20

Licensed human required and personally liable. Every state licenses PTs under a practice act, you carry your own NPI and malpractice policy, and in direct-access states there is no physician co-signature between you and a missed red flag — the plan of care has your license number on it, which is why this is 17 and not the 12 of a role where a supervising MD absorbs the exposure.

Trust premium 17/20

The human relationship is the product. A 12-visit episode for a rotator cuff repair means the patient sees you two or three times a week for six weeks and tells you about their pain, their fear of re-tearing, and whether they actually did the exercises — adherence is the treatment effect, and it comes from that relationship, held just short of 20 because staffing models rotate patients across PTs and techs and patients still come back.

Judgment & accountability 18/20

Exists to be accountable for ambiguous calls. You decide when a post-op knee is ready to progress load, when a new-onset unilateral calf pain means stop and send to the ED for DVT, and when to discharge against a payer's remaining visits — those are consequential calls made in the room with incomplete information, which is 18 rather than 14 because a wrong one causes immediate physical harm.

Confidence: high · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

Tasks already automatable

What survives

Active moats: embodiment, licensure, trust, judgment

How to future-proof this job

Field report — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work?

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

From people who do this job

Nobody has filed one yet. If you do this work, you know things the rubric can't see.

What has actually changed in your work?

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.