← Risk register SOC 19-3094 · reviewed 2026-08-11

Political Scientists

5,540 US workers · median $142,080/yr · Science

COOKED

The core output — literature reviews, policy memos, survey instrument drafting, comparative country analyses, legislative and regulatory tracking — is text-in/text-out work that current models produce at usable draft quality, and much of the quantitative work is standard regression and coding of public datasets. No license gates the title, and clients rarely pay for the specific human. What survives is the senior advisory tier: someone who has cultivated sources, reads a political situation that isn't in the training data, and puts their name on a forecast a principal will act on.

10-year outlook: Headcount in a field of only ~5,500 contracts as research-assistant and memo-writing roles collapse into AI-assisted workflows, leaving a smaller senior tier built on sources, forecasting reputation, and time in front of principals.

Score — 33/100 resistance

Five dimensions, 0–20 each, summed. Higher means more protected. The arithmetic is shown so you can check it: 8 + 4 + 1 + 9 + 11 = 33.

Task resistance 8/20

Mixed — a routine tier and a judgment tier. An 8 reflects that coding open-ended survey responses, drafting country risk briefs, tracking bills through committee, and running cross-national regressions on Polity or V-Dem data are all now first-draftable by a model, while what stays human is elite interviewing, fieldwork in a country where the officials won't talk to a stranger, and designing a research question nobody has framed yet — enough of the job to keep it out of the 0-6 band but not enough to reach mixed-territory 12.

Embodiment 4/20

Fully desk- and screen-based. A 4 covers the occasional overseas fieldwork trip, focus group facilitation, or archival visit, but the modal week is Stata, Qualtrics, a literature database, and a Word document, and no part of the analysis requires the researcher's body to be anywhere in particular.

Liability shield 1/20

No licence, no signature requirement. A 1, not a 0, because nothing licenses the title — a PhD is a hiring credential, not a statutory gate — and when a forecast is wrong the institution absorbs it; the only faint personal exposure is IRB approval on human-subjects protocols and security clearance obligations for government contract work.

Trust premium 9/20

Some relationship component. A 9 sits mid-band because congressional staff, agency clients, and journalists do come back to a specific named analyst whose read on a region they've learned to trust, but the bulk of published output — think tank reports, journal articles, contracted country studies — is consumed for its findings and its institution's letterhead, not because the reader knows who wrote it.

Judgment & accountability 11/20

Meaningful discretion. An 11 marks the gap between the methodologically constrained work — model specification, sampling frames, coding rules that peer review polices — and the genuinely unbounded calls like whether a coup is likely in the next six months or whether a sanctions regime will hold, where the analyst commits to a judgment that a principal acts on but where the decision itself, and its consequences, belong to someone else.

Scored twice. An independent second run returned 31/100 — COOKED, agreeing with the verdict above.

This score sits on a verdict boundary. At 33/100 it is one point from EXPOSED. Re-scoring moves results by a point or two, so here the score is more informative than the label.

Confidence: medium · reviewed 2026-08-11 · how scoring works

Tasks already automatable

What survives

Active moats: judgment, trust

How to future-proof this job

Training paths for your skill gaps: Programming fundamentals partner link

Escape hatches — adjacent fields with better verdicts

Computed from U.S. Dept. of Labor O*NET skill profiles: high overlap with what you already do, materially higher resistance score.

Law Teachers, Postsecondary EXPOSED · 59/100 · you already have ~85% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Learning Strategies, Management of Personnel Resources, Instructing, Monitoring

Philosophy and Religion Teachers, Postsecondary EXPOSED · 48/100 · you already have ~84% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Management of Personnel Resources, Instructing

Geography Teachers, Postsecondary EXPOSED · 48/100 · you already have ~83% of the skill profile

Skills to close: Management of Personnel Resources, Instructing, Programming, Science

Field report — do you do this job?

Has AI actually changed your work?

Self-reported and unverified — a sentiment signal, not a survey. One response per person per occupation; you can change your answer.

From people who do this job

Nobody has filed one yet. If you do this work, you know things the rubric can't see.

What has actually changed in your work?

Concrete beats general: a tool that arrived, a task that moved, a headcount decision you watched happen. Don't include anything that identifies you or your employer if that would put you at risk.